The State of the Race: Final Oscar Nomination Predictions

My candle burns at both ends,
It will not last the night–
ah, my foes, and oh, my friends,
It gives a lovely light.

The Oscar year began all the way back in Cannes where three films were introduced – Inside Llewyn Davis, All is Lost and Nebraska.  For a time it seemed as though those three films would continue to dominate through the festival season and through the critics awards and finally, through the guild awards.  The hurried dates around this time of year, and the late comers that seemed to have changed the game, and have altered our perception somewhat; after all, last year we all thought the late comers Zero Dark Thirty, Life of Pi, Lincoln and Django Unchained would have unseated the film that eventually won – they did not.  Argo handily took the entire season, after debuting in Telluride earlier in the season.

As Kris Tapley rightly reminded me at some party a while back – if American Hustle wins Best Picture it will be the first film since The Departed to do so outside the awards circuit.  Captain Phillips and Hustle are sitting in the same seat as The Departed way back in 2006.  Since then, however, the winning films were festival movies – or movies that showed at Cannes, Telluride or Toronto.

The festival films for the win are still 12 Years a Slave and Gravity. The challenger is American Hustle, which was launched into the race when the New York Film Critics named it Best Picture. It won again at the Globes and, I predict, it will win the Critics Choice awards.

This weekend, post Oscar nominations, will see another shift in the race — the Screen Actors Guild and Producers Guild’s winners will be announced, and the Critics Choice are on the Thursday, the night after Oscar nominations.

Oscar ballots were turned in long ago, on the 8th of January, before the Golden Globes, before the momentum swing of Wolf of Wall Street.  The upcoming award wins will have no impact on these nominations.  They will shift momentum but so will the Oscar nominations — Argo had the good fortune of a momentum swing just after the Oscar nods omitted him in the director category.  To call these Oscar predictions, you might have to take yourself back a couple of weeks.

Right now, post-BAFTA, we all feel like Saving Mr. Banks might miss out on a nod.  But back two weeks or so, it was still riding high.  Similarly, the upswing for Llewyn Davis given by the National Society of Film Critics, and the realization that the film might miss out on an Oscar nod, might have come too late. We just don’t know.

The race to be watching, of course, is Best Director – since the DGA announced just a day before the Oscar ballot deadline there is no telling what names will be read. Last year was one of the most surprising director lineups I’ve seen in 15 years. I do expect there to be some disconnect but I would have a hard time deciding which name to bump.

Let’s start with Best Picture. I will predict that, in light of there being so many good movies, the Academy will either go for nine, or it will manage the extraordinarily and almost mathematically impossible feat of 10.  I predict that 12 Years a Slave will lead the nominations, followed by Gravity, American Hustle, Captain Phillips, etc.

For Best Picture you have to imagine films that will get the most number 1 votes and if they don’t get number 1 votes they would be getting high up the chain – like 2 and 3.  Passion is rewarded in this instance so you have to look for movies people LOVED.  I think Wolf of Wall Street will have a significant number of those who love it, equal to those who hate it. That makes it a good contender for a nod, just not for the win.   The tricky call is between Philomena, Saving Mr. Banks and Inside Llewyn Davis.  I suspect there will be enough Coen fans to drive in Llewyn Davis. But so many will love Dallas Buyers Club.  I have to give the Coens the edge there.  I believe Dallas Buyers Club will get in but I don’t know which of the 9 to bump.  So I will leave it at this:

1. 12 Years a Slave
2. American Hustle
3. Gravity
4. Captain Phillips
5. The Wolf of Wall Street
6. Philomena
7. Nebraska
8. Her
9. Inside Llewyn Davis
10. Dallas Buyers Club
Alt. Saving Mr. Banks, The Butler

Best Actor – This is your fifth slot nightmare situation but since we are talking about two weeks ago as opposed to right now I will keep it at:

1. Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
2. Bruce Dern, Nebraska
3. Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
4. Robert Redford, All is Lost
5. Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Alts: Leonardo DiCaprio, Wolf of Wall Street, Christian Bale, American Hustle

Again, I’m not going to predict that Streep gets bumped, per the consensus, because this is two weeks ago – I will keep Streep but Adams is the real threat.

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Alt. Amy Adams, American Hustle

Supporting Actor
1. Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
2. Barkhad Abdi Captain Phillips
3. Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
4. Daniel Bruhl, Rush
5. Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Alt. Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street, Will Forte, Nebraksa

Supporting Actress
1. Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
2. Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
3. Oprah Winfrey, The Butler
4. June Squibb, Nebraska
5. Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
Alt. Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine, Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station

Best Director is the hardest category to call. There are simply too many good options.  The top three I’m certain of but Greengrass and Scorsese, I just don’t know. They might get bumped for Frears, the Coens, etc.   Still, with blindfolds on here I have no choice but to go with the DGA, even though I suspect there might be a different lineup.

1. Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
2. Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
3. David O. Russell, American Hustle
4. Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
5. Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
Alts Spike Jonze, Her, Alexander Payne, Nebraska, Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis,
Jean-Marc Vallée, Dallas Buyers Club, Stephen Frears, Philomena

Original Screenplay
1. Eric Singer, David O. Russell, American Hustle
2. Spike Jonze, Her
3. Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
4. Bob Nelson, Nebraska
5. Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine
Alts. Craig Borten, Dallas Buyers Club, Kelly Marcel, Saving Mr. Banks, Nicole Holofcener, Enough Said
Ryan Coogler, Fruitvale Station

Adapted Screenplay
1. John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
2. Terrence Winter, Wolf of Wall Street
3. Steve Coogan, Philomena
4. Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Richard Linklater, Before Midnight
5. Billy Ray, Captain Phillips
Alt. Tracy Letts, August: Osage County

Editing
1. Alfonso Cuarón Mark Sanger, Gravity
2. Thelma Schoonmaker, The Wolf of Wall Street
3. Alan Baumgarten, Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers, American Hustle
4. Joe Walker, 12 Years a Slave
5. Christopher Rouse, Captain Phillips
Alt. Daniel P Hanley, Rush

Cinematography
1. Emmanuel Lubezki Gravity
2. Bruno Delbonnel, Inside Llewyn Davis
3. Sean Bobbit, 12 Years a Slave
4. Barry Ackroyd, Captain Phillips
5. Phedon Papamichael, Nebraska
Alt. Roger Deakins Prisoners, Philippe Le Sourd, The Grandmaster

Production Design
1. Gravity
2. The Great Gatsby
3. 12 Years a Slave
4. The Desolation of Smaug
5. American Hustle
Alt Her ,Inside llewyn Davis, Saving Mr. Banks

Sound Mixing
Gravity
Lone Survivor
Iron Man 3
Inside Llewyn Davis
Captain Phillips
alt. Rush

Sound Editing
Gravity
Captain Phillips
Lone Survivor
Monsters University
All is Lost
alt.  Fast and Furious 6

Costume Design
American Hustle
The Great Gatsby
12 Years a Slave
The Desolation of Smaug
Oz the Great and Powerful
Alt. Saving Mr. Banks

Original Score
Gravity
12 years a Slave
The Book Thief
All is Lost
Saving Mr. Banks
alt. Captain Phillips , Her

Foreign Language Film
The Great Beauty (Italy)
The Hunt (Denmark
The Grandmater (Hong Kong)
Omar (Palestine)
The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium)
Alt. Two Lives

Documentary Feature
The Act of Killing
Stories We Tell
Blackfish
Tim’s Vermeer
Cutie and the Boxer
alt. 20 Feet from Stardom

Animated Feature
Frozen
The Wind Rises
Despicable Me 2
Monsters University
The Croods

Visual Effects
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
Pacific Rim
Star Trek Into Darkness

Makeup
American Hustle
Dallas Buyers Club
The Great Gatsby

Song
Let It Go (Frozen)
Ordinary Love (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)
Young and Beautiful, (Great Gatsby)
The Moon Song (Her)
My Lord Sunshine (12 Years a Slave)
alt. Amen (All Is Lost)