DGA Preview and Prediction

This weekend, on January 25, the DGA will call out their winner for the 2013 film year.

There are some things about this year that haven’t changed. The two films vying for the top prize still came out on or before Toronto/Telluride. Box office still isn’t going to play a part in the outcome. The critics have some say in how it’s gone down. The public is still completely taken out of the equation. When the Producers Guild defied all expectations by delivering a tie for the first time in their history, it suddenly became clear just how close this race really was. That was on a preferential/instant run-off ballot.

ENTER OUR CONTEST

Here is a good video explainer of the run-off system:

As you can see, passionate support doesn’t really help in a close race. It surely helps if one movie is supported overwhelmingly, say, The Artist. But where a situation like we have now is concerned, the passion vote doesn’t really help. I’m going to presume that with the Producers Guild there were three top vote getters. If 12 Years a Slave or Gravity was your number one and two, in order for American Hustle to have topped both of those, it would have to be number 3. I’m going to guess that most people would not put 12 Years, Gravity then American Hustle. Either they liked American Hustle better than those two or they didn’t like it at all. That is what you call a divisive film and usually that kind of movie can’t win in a run-off system.

What you really need is a situation where your film is either 1, 2, or 3. You need a lot of 1s, a lot of 2s and a lot of 3s and you’re a contender for the win. What doesn’t help is if you’re hated. Last year, for instance, no one really hated Argo. Either they loved it or they liked it a lot.

That movie, it seems to me, could be Gravity. It could be American Hustle. And it could be 12 Years a Slave. My instincts tell me, though, that you have to be an asshole to put 12 Years a Slave down your ballot. You are likely going to put it towards the top of your ballot either because you view it as the best film of the nominees, or you see it as a noble effort even if it wasnt your cup of tea – you admire the ambition of it. Or, you want to see your vote make a difference in terms of film and Academy history.

If you look at Movie City News’ top ten collection, 12 Years a Slave is at the top of the list. It’s there because it was either a number 1 or a number 2 or very high on those lists. American Hustle did not get many number 1 votes over there and of those who did put it at number 1, their number 2 wasn’t Gravity or 12 Years a Slave — only Joe Morgenstern picked Hustle and then Gravity. So if you went by that list, there’s a good chance Hustle wouldn’t pick up enough number 1 votes to get it in the running for the win.

Now you have to look at how people divide their love for Gravity and 12 Years. Are they similar kinds of people? Are they wildly different? There is a small minority of voters who pick Gravity at #1 and 12 Years at #2, but there are fewer, I’d say, who do it the opposite way. Generally speaking, those who put 12 Years at number one pick something like Wolf of Wall Street for 2. But 12 Years and Gravity are both populating those lists in the top slots.

In a tight year like this one, each award win impacts the next one. Since DGA ballots aren’t due until Friday of this week, voters are likely deciding between McQueen and Cuaron, unless they’re the kind of people who voted for Ralph Nader. There will be no instant run-off voting here.

Because it’s such a close year, we don’t even really know for sure if the DGA will determine Best Picture or not. It’s possible that Cuaron could win in a passion vote at the DGA and in the Best Director category at the Oscar but that the preferential ballot will reward the film that has the most broad support overall, and that would be 12 Years a Slave.

I don’t know how to proceed since we’re seeing something we haven’t ever seen before, with a tie at the Producers Guild and two films vying for the big prize. What I know about the DGA, though, is they do two things consistently. They vote for people they know well and they vote for directors who are nice and amiable. They don’t like directors who are brilliant but who don’t regularly kiss ass. They like the Danny Boyles and the Tom Hoopers and the Ben Afflecks. Nice guys. Logic would then dictate that Cuaron, being one of the nicest guys in town, with the Clooney connection, would have DGA in the bag.

I would then say for your predictions sake that likability and passion would drive this to be that year that breaks the rules with the preferential ballot – Cuaron gets director, 12 Years gets picture as everyone is saying.

But something tells me that this year it’s not going to split, that it will go all the way with McQueen and 12 Years. The reason being, I don’t think I could look at my DGA ballot and not vote for McQueen. For me personally it would either be Martin Scorsese or Steve McQueen. No one else would even remotely enter the picture. But then again, I wouldn’t have voted for Affleck (Spielberg would have gotten my vote), nor Hazanavicius (Scorsese again), Hooper (Fincher, duh). You have to go back to Bigelow to find a year where I personally would have picked the winner, Kathryn Bigelow.

So, don’t listen to me. My prediction is Steve McQueen. My wishful thinking is Steve McQueen. Who will probably win? Alfonso Cuaron.

The DGA Awards
won DGA | won Oscar

*film nominated/+ won Best Picture at the Oscars

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989
Driving Miss Daisy won Best Picture

1988

1987

1986

1985

1984

1983

1982

1981

1980

1979

1978

1977

1976

1975

1974

1973

1972

1971

1970

1969

1968

1967

1966

1965

1964

1963

1962

1961

1960

1959

1958

1957

1956

1955

1954

1953

1953

1952

1951

1950

1949

+also won Best Picture

(best picture that didn’t match director)