The trailers look like a remake of The Fugitive. They don’t even look particularly dark, certainly not Fincher-esque. I highly doubt that’s how the film will actually play, but the trailers are certainly underwhelming. The Fugitive was a very good film, but we really don’t need another one. But then again we needed another Dragon Tattoo even less since the Oplev version with Noomi Rapace was perfect–the best psychological thriller since The Silence of the Lambs, so here’s hoping for something far better than the trailers give any indication of.
Hmmmmm not feeling any great excitement watching that so can’t understand why there are so many Fincher erections on here. I appreciate this site is “super” supportive of anything Fincher but sometimes you just have to see a trailer for what it is ….. and that is a pretty looking trailer that doesn’t pack that much of a punch. It certainly doesn’t kick the adrenaline in like say Interstellar, Foxcatcher or even Clouds of Sils Maria …… Binoche looks amazing in this! But what do I know!!!! It will probably come away with a dozen nominations and once again I will be sat there scratching my head and thinking “what the fuck did I miss”!!!!!! Unless of course, when I see the movie I actually say “now I know what the fuss was all about”!!! But going off that trailer I’m not that convinced.
The more I look at that picture of Affleck in front of Pike I am more and more hooked. That smile is one of the trickiest things Affleck’s had to pull off. It calls for him to stand in front of his “missing” wife and smile through the pain or embarrassment. You can tell he’s not totally happy there and it speaks volumes. A picture is worth a thousand words…well this one may tell all we need to know about his character.
I see this getting the sort of love as Dragon Tattoo…but hell I’m not sure. I’m just speculating since I never read the book and I’m positive I really should if only to get (between book and movie) two great endings to the same story. I see original score, supporting actress and editing at the least.
I like affleck as a director (a little overrated though undoubtedly) and like him as a personality, I also like this book (although it does turn a bit messy towards the end), I trust fincher a lot as he’s an incredible director.
I must say that getting affleck playing a character unable to convincingly express emotion is pretty much perfect casting.
don’t forget Dragon Tattoo got a PGA nomination and a DGA nomination
hard to know what goes on in the heads of Academy members but there did seem to be the nagging impression that Dragon Tattoo underperformed at the box-office. (gee, a movie about sadistic rape and torture wasn’t the #1 Christmas movie, I’m shocked).
so that’s one reason I think Gone Girl will have an edge over Dragon Tattoo. Gone Girl’s October opening will give it ample time to prove it’s a box-office success.
Cirkusfolk, my bad. I didn’t add that I only did those two since they were the only ones nominated for Best Picture. So I was looking at the math for when Fincher is in the BP race. But yes, I should add his other nominated films to be fair.
I also just realized Reznor didn’t get nomed for score for Tattoo. So because of that, he might this time. I thought three in a row would be too much to ask of the academy. I mean he’s not Christoph Waltz!
Wow. You are putting it as a contender Ryan. See, that’s all I wanted to know 😉 But Al, you gotta be fair … Girl With Dragon Tattoo, 5 noms / 1 win. But hey, that’s still 5 even though two of those are for sound.
The Social Network.
8 noms / 3 wins
Picture: Scott Rudin, Dana Brunetti, Michael DeLuca, Cean Chaffin
Director: David Fincher
Actor: Jesse Eisenberg
Adapted Screenplay (WIN): Aaron Sorkin
Editing (WIN)
Cinematography
Sound
Original Score (WIN): Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
13 noms / 3 wins
Picture: Kathleen Kennedy, Frank Marshall and Cean Chaffin
Director: David Fincher
Actor: Brad Pitt
Supporting Actress: Taraji P. Henson
Adapted Screenplay: Screenplay by Eric Roth. Screen story by Eric Roth and Robin Swicord.
Editing: Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall
Cinematography: Claudio Miranda
Art Direction (WIN): Donald Graham Burt (Art Direction); Victor J. Zolfo (Set Decoration)
Costume Design: Jacqueline West
Makeup (WIN): Greg Cannom
Visual Effects (WIN): Eric Barba, Steve Preeg, Burt Dalton and Craig Barron
Sound: David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce and Mark Weingarten
Original Score: Alexandre Desplat
ok you guys, I never do this. Never make blind guesses about Oscar nominations until I see the movies.
but I’ll go ahead and say, likely nominations for Gone Girl
Best Editing
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Score
Best Sound something or other
Best Actress
Best Picture
Best Director
7 seems about right. But to hedge my bets can I just say “5 or more nominations“?
If I’m wrong, cirkusfolk, I’ll get you an Amazon gift certificate but I won’t say for how much. Depends on how broke I am that week.
I’ll just add one thing about Grand Torino. I originally heard the rumor that it was going to be another Dirty Harry movie. I think that it would have been better if it had. 🙂
(Inside joke): Ryan, we would have needed another Dirty Harry movie like we need more Die Hard movies. Ha ha 🙂
Haha. Yes we can. I couldn’t believe the hype for it that year. I’m glad you heard Gone Girl is good. I saw it already has a R rating from the MPAA, so I figured it’s now complete. You won’t believe me but it is in my top ten to see for the rest of te year. I think the trailer is excellent. And of course the cinematography.
I’m saying Gone Girl is more like Dragon Tattoo than Social Network or Benjamin Button. And actually, the evidence bags as clues marketing seems eerily similar to Dragon’s Polaroids as clues marketing. But anyway, I think Dragon Tattoo only gt the noms it did because it came out at the end of Dec. Had it been Oct 3rd, probably not.
In terms of Fincher being due, I think he’s on a short list of directors due to win Best Picture. David Fincher, Christopher Nolan, Paul Thomas Anderson, Spike Jonze, Alexander Payne, Ang Lee, Quentin Tarantino, and Darren Aronofsky.
You think Fincher is that due? Like I said before, they ignored him for his best films, so I don’t see them giving it to him if he doesn’t truly deserve it. Let’s say for example Danny Boyle didn’t win for Slumdog, do you think the Academy would’ve given him an Oscar for Trance just because? It is easily his worst film.
“Side Effects opened 2 weeks before Oscar night on 2013. How is it going to hang on for another 11 and a half months to beat 12 Years a Slave in 2014?”
And as I said some are off, but if you look at the top 250 I agree with probably 80 percent. How bout you? I thought Gran Torino sucked balls as well. But some people like it just because of the racism it is actually condemning. Go figure. And for the most part, a films score on imdb usually starts at it’s highest and goes down. Just saying.
One of the things that keeps me hopeful about David Fincher, and I have a hunch, Sasha too, is that even the great Martin Scorsese, a longtime “bridesmaid but never a bridge”, FINALLY won his Best Picture Oscar. I sure as hell hope that the Oscar voters will see fit to eventually do the same with Fincher.
I think Side Effects got lost in the shuffle. I don’t know for sure that it being released in February had an effect or not. Plus, last year was the best year we’ve seen since 2007, and there were way too many other more deserving films. But, I think Side Effects was terrific. I think other films that got lost in the shuffle were Prisoners, Fruitvale Station, and The Place Beyond the Pines.
Plus, I think Side Effects was a bit too depressing for Oscar’s tastes.
I think a film’s IMDb score has No Relevance Whatsoever to its Oscar potential.
I think a film’s IMDb score has No Relevance Whatsoever to my own reverence or disdain for a movie.
I think a film’s IMDb score in the 2nd week of its release has No Relevance Whatsoever to its eventual status or lasting value.
Example, Gran Torino, IMDb score 8.2.
Gran fucking Torino has a higher IMDb score than
No Country for Old Men (2007)
Annie Hall (1977)
Touch of Evil (1958)
Network (1976)
The Wizard of Oz (1939)
There Will Be Blood (2007)
The Grapes of Wrath (1940)
The 400 Blows (1959)
8½ (1963)
Strangers on a Train (1951)
Persona (1966)
High Noon (1952)
Jaws (1975)
Notorious (1946)
Fanny and Alexander (1982)
The Terminator (1984)
The Night of the Hunter (1955)
Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf? (1966)
The Battle of Algiers (1966)
The Graduate (1967)
A Fistful of Dollars (1964)
Gravity (2013)
Black Swan (2010)
Turds like Life is Beautiful and Django Unchained have higher IMDb scores than Citizen Kane.
Well I had my doubts about Unbroken too only because people have been touting it since the beginning of the year. Now especially with the recent passing of the main character, I can’t ignore it. Although, Mandelas death didn’t seem to help his movie last year. I personally see this as a weak year. I’m actually liking more summer fare then I usually do (xmen, neighbors, edge tomorrow and hopefully apes and guardians) while the Nov Dec stuff looks to underwhelm. I read some script reviews of Interstellar that have me doubting that film as well.
I agree with you Al on the runner ups Fincher has made. My main concern with this film is simply the material. It’s no different than Dragon Tattoo except it’s being released three months earlier. And Dragon had a huge following. Even though this is a best seller, what makes it different than say Soderburgh’s Side Effects?
Ok so why aren’t we talking about Rage starring Nick Cage that comes out this weekend as having potential. You have got to be kidding me with these statements? I’ve been coming to this site for the past five years ( just never posted) and from what I gathered, all you do is make predictions before you see movies.
My thoughts on Gone Girl getting a nomination for Best Picture, is I think it will. I like it’s chances, because David Fincher has (so far) been nominated twice before, with The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, and The Social Network. I think both were the “runner-up” to the eventual winner, Slumdog Millionaire and The King’s Speech. With this go-around, I see no reason why Gone Girl can’t compete the same way. Although, I do think that right now, it’s not in the top 2, because I think they are Unbroken and Foxcatcher. So, right now, I don’t think Gone Girl will win Best Picture.
This site doesn’t predict best picture nominees before seeing them? I thought you guys predicted American Hustle as a nominee before it started shooting?
Ha. I believe an imdb score is a pretty accurate guide. Sure I don’t agree with all the ratings. But it’s the best source we have where everybody in the world can vote on a film. Not just the critics. So you think a films imdb score has no relevance?
I don’t guess about which specific Oscars categories a movie might be nominated before I see the movie because I’m not Nostradamus and I’m not an idiot.
By the same token, I don’t dismiss a movie’s Oscar potential before I see the movie because I’m not Nostradamus and I’m not an idiot.
I believe my first comment stated I didn’t think the film would get very many Oscar noms. That’s it. I didn’t say it wouldn’t receive any. I just don’t think it will land picture, director, actor or actress, so that means it’s not a front runner in my book.
If you’re trying to accuse me of saying Gone Girl will win Best Picture then I think everyone here knows you’re crazy.
Unless I’m mistaken then you’re saying Gone Girl is not on track the be in the Oscar conversation, am I right? If that’s really what you think just say it, so there’s no misunderstanding.
If you’re saying Gone Girl won’t be nominated for any major Oscars then, yes, I feel pretty confident that you’re wrong. We’ll talk again in January. And I hope every week between now and January. In fact, Please be sure to check back on October 4th.
In the meantime you can come report to us whatever you’re seeing people say on the IMDb message boards. Because that’s a really authoritative source.
Both I suppose. I mean honestly how many noms do you think this film will get and for what and we will leave it at that. Otherwise I don’t see the point of you guys trying to disprove what my opinion is if yours isn’t the opposite. I wouldn’t venture to give it more than cinematography and score but I’m sure by now they might be tired of Ross and Reznor.
Right. And those October releases were pretty much the contenders for Best Pic. That was what I was implying when I said too early. Unless you honesty think it will e the Best Pic or runner up, it is too early to stick around.
I also didn’t mention if Trent Reznor calls this film dark after already scoring Dragon Tattoo and another article mentions it having Fincher’s most explicit sex scene to date, I don’t think that’s the type of material the “old Academy” eats up. I personally want to see the film. I’ve read the book. But since this is a site about betting on award winners, I gotta go what I think the outcome will be.
June – Winter’s Bone / Toy Story 3 / Beasts of the Southern Wild = 3
July – The Kid’s Are All Right / Inception = 2
August – The Help = 1
September – Moneyball = 1
October – The Social Network / Argo / Gravity / Captain Phillips / 12 Years a Slave = 5
November – 127 Hours / The King’s Speech / The Descendants / Hugo / The Artist / Lincoln / Silver Linings Playbook / Life of Pi / Dallas Buyers Club / Nebraska / Philomena = 11
December – Black Swan / The Fighter / True Grit / War Horse / Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close / Amour / Zero Dark Thirty / Django Unchained / Les Miserables / American Hustle / Her / The Wolf of Wall Street = 12
Pretty spread out with release date months.
December = 12
November = 11
October = 5
June = 3
July = 2
August = 1
September = 1
I too can’t envision this getting very many Oscar noms. It’s not like Fincher is an automatic awards horse all the sudden. Just because his last three films were recognized, lets not forget is first five (not counting Alien 3)films, and arguably his best, only shared two Oscar noms between them. Editing for Se7en and SFX editing for Fight Club. I’m sorry but if a masterpiece like Zodiac didn’t get a single nom, how can this? I would compare it to his last film, Girl With Dragon Tattoo, as both are based on pulpy novels, but I think that film only got the love it did because of the Christmas release date. October 3rd is pretty early for an awards campaign.
I am excited for this but wish they did not show so much in the trailer. Maybe people who have not read the book won’t pick up on the clues, but it seems to give away some major plot points. The second trailer for The Giver does the same thing, but maybe it’s a marketing concept to pull in as many people as possible. I also wish NPH had not been cast. He is too recognizable now from television. But perhaps, we hope, he (and the movie) will be great. I also don’t see awards for this – it’s too genre-specific as a murder mystery, films that the Academy generally ignore.
OH!!! This looks amazing!!! David Fincher, as I’ve said before, is my favorite director right now, and this looks like it will be top 5 of the year for sure. It’s style really reminded me of The Social Network.
It looks like a standard, pretty interesting-looking, thriller if you can possibly objective. But I can’t, because it is David Fincher that makes me, and thousands of others no doubt, very excited about this.
ok, yeah. I found this sentence in the first few pages. Nick says:
“It’s a rented house right along the Mississippi River that screams suburban nouveau riche… a generically grand, unchallenging, new, new, new house that my wife would — and did — detest.
“… a miniature ghost town of recession-busted, price-reduced mansions…”
I have read the book and I can tell you that I’m satisfied with everything I’ve read people say about the movie i.e., “a whole new third act!” 🙂 <3 Affleck seems to be at the top of his game and just became a serious Best Actor player, if not for the win, certainly for a nomination!
TO THE WONDER was my #8 of last year and Affleck blew me away! I anointed it from day one and was among the very few that understood its intent! I suspect the "intelligentsia" will reverse all misguided statements in just a fraction of the time it took them with EYES WIDE SHUT! Am I the only one who wanted to sucker punch Willoughby when he mocked Colonel Brandon?!
Looks awesome. I think it DOES have awards written all over it. Maybe not acting-wise but neither did other recent award-y movies like Argo and Life of Pi. I LOVE Fincher and how dark his movies are. This looks so good.
I’ll have to go back and check in the book, Mego. But seems to me that Amy didn’t like the house because it was too much of a “McMansion.”
Didn’t she say in the book that the whole neighborhood — the whole town — was full of desolate remnants of grand but now abandoned mansions, because the recession had pulled the rug out from under so many homeowners who had overextended themselves in fancy new houses?
I might be wrong but that’s how I remember it. Housing estates that had been abandoned, yes, but not shabby.
There’s one thing the bothers me. The house. It was always described as kind of shabby in the book, right? Why do they look like they’re living in a mansion in the movie? Still completely psyched for this, either way. Just a general observation.
When Ben Affleck saw the revamped ending he reportedly said: “This is a whole new third act!”
Two quotes from Gillian Flynn:
“There was something thrilling about taking this piece of work that I’d spent about two years painstakingly putting together with all its eight million Lego pieces and take a hammer to it and bash it apart and reassemble it into a movie.”
“Of course, the script has to be different from the book in some ways—you have to find a way to externalize all those internal thoughts and you have to do more with less room and you just don’t have room for everything. But the mood, tone and spirit of the book are very much intact. I’ve been very involved in the film and loved it. Working with David Fincher is pretty much the best place to start for a screenwriter. Screenwriting definitely works different parts of your brain than writing a novel. I do love that with novels, you can really sprawl out–it feels quite decadent. With screenwriting, you have to justify every choice. It’s a nice discipline, but definitely not decadent.”
Looks like a good thriller, but I dont see the awards hype for this, maybe score. Of course I didnt see the awards hype for Argo either so this will probably win best pic. I understand the absence of Pike, but people OMG WINNER is a bit too soon.
The trailers look like a remake of The Fugitive. They don’t even look particularly dark, certainly not Fincher-esque. I highly doubt that’s how the film will actually play, but the trailers are certainly underwhelming. The Fugitive was a very good film, but we really don’t need another one. But then again we needed another Dragon Tattoo even less since the Oplev version with Noomi Rapace was perfect–the best psychological thriller since The Silence of the Lambs, so here’s hoping for something far better than the trailers give any indication of.
Hmmmmm not feeling any great excitement watching that so can’t understand why there are so many Fincher erections on here. I appreciate this site is “super” supportive of anything Fincher but sometimes you just have to see a trailer for what it is ….. and that is a pretty looking trailer that doesn’t pack that much of a punch. It certainly doesn’t kick the adrenaline in like say Interstellar, Foxcatcher or even Clouds of Sils Maria …… Binoche looks amazing in this! But what do I know!!!! It will probably come away with a dozen nominations and once again I will be sat there scratching my head and thinking “what the fuck did I miss”!!!!!! Unless of course, when I see the movie I actually say “now I know what the fuss was all about”!!! But going off that trailer I’m not that convinced.
The more I look at that picture of Affleck in front of Pike I am more and more hooked. That smile is one of the trickiest things Affleck’s had to pull off. It calls for him to stand in front of his “missing” wife and smile through the pain or embarrassment. You can tell he’s not totally happy there and it speaks volumes. A picture is worth a thousand words…well this one may tell all we need to know about his character.
I cannot wait to see this movie. Ben affleck is truly blessed with beauty genes.
I see this getting the sort of love as Dragon Tattoo…but hell I’m not sure. I’m just speculating since I never read the book and I’m positive I really should if only to get (between book and movie) two great endings to the same story. I see original score, supporting actress and editing at the least.
I’m reading the book now. It will get a few nominations but I see this being another David fincher thriller.
I like affleck as a director (a little overrated though undoubtedly) and like him as a personality, I also like this book (although it does turn a bit messy towards the end), I trust fincher a lot as he’s an incredible director.
I must say that getting affleck playing a character unable to convincingly express emotion is pretty much perfect casting.
Cirkusfolk, and everyone else too,
This is Still my favorite thing Reznor has ever done. Classic, and one of the best songs of all-time.
http://vimeo.com/3554226
don’t forget Dragon Tattoo got a PGA nomination and a DGA nomination
hard to know what goes on in the heads of Academy members but there did seem to be the nagging impression that Dragon Tattoo underperformed at the box-office. (gee, a movie about sadistic rape and torture wasn’t the #1 Christmas movie, I’m shocked).
so that’s one reason I think Gone Girl will have an edge over Dragon Tattoo. Gone Girl’s October opening will give it ample time to prove it’s a box-office success.
Cirkusfolk, my bad. I didn’t add that I only did those two since they were the only ones nominated for Best Picture. So I was looking at the math for when Fincher is in the BP race. But yes, I should add his other nominated films to be fair.
I also just realized Reznor didn’t get nomed for score for Tattoo. So because of that, he might this time. I thought three in a row would be too much to ask of the academy. I mean he’s not Christoph Waltz!
Wow. You are putting it as a contender Ryan. See, that’s all I wanted to know 😉 But Al, you gotta be fair … Girl With Dragon Tattoo, 5 noms / 1 win. But hey, that’s still 5 even though two of those are for sound.
The Social Network.
8 noms / 3 wins
Picture: Scott Rudin, Dana Brunetti, Michael DeLuca, Cean Chaffin
Director: David Fincher
Actor: Jesse Eisenberg
Adapted Screenplay (WIN): Aaron Sorkin
Editing (WIN)
Cinematography
Sound
Original Score (WIN): Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
13 noms / 3 wins
Picture: Kathleen Kennedy, Frank Marshall and Cean Chaffin
Director: David Fincher
Actor: Brad Pitt
Supporting Actress: Taraji P. Henson
Adapted Screenplay: Screenplay by Eric Roth. Screen story by Eric Roth and Robin Swicord.
Editing: Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall
Cinematography: Claudio Miranda
Art Direction (WIN): Donald Graham Burt (Art Direction); Victor J. Zolfo (Set Decoration)
Costume Design: Jacqueline West
Makeup (WIN): Greg Cannom
Visual Effects (WIN): Eric Barba, Steve Preeg, Burt Dalton and Craig Barron
Sound: David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce and Mark Weingarten
Original Score: Alexandre Desplat
Ave = 10.5 nominations / 3 wins
ok you guys, I never do this. Never make blind guesses about Oscar nominations until I see the movies.
but I’ll go ahead and say, likely nominations for Gone Girl
Best Editing
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Score
Best Sound something or other
Best Actress
Best Picture
Best Director
7 seems about right. But to hedge my bets can I just say “5 or more nominations“?
If I’m wrong, cirkusfolk, I’ll get you an Amazon gift certificate but I won’t say for how much. Depends on how broke I am that week.
I’ll just add one thing about Grand Torino. I originally heard the rumor that it was going to be another Dirty Harry movie. I think that it would have been better if it had. 🙂
(Inside joke): Ryan, we would have needed another Dirty Harry movie like we need more Die Hard movies. Ha ha 🙂
Haha. Yes we can. I couldn’t believe the hype for it that year. I’m glad you heard Gone Girl is good. I saw it already has a R rating from the MPAA, so I figured it’s now complete. You won’t believe me but it is in my top ten to see for the rest of te year. I think the trailer is excellent. And of course the cinematography.
So why aren’t we talking about Noah then, ha
Everybody around here is sick of hearing me talk about Noah.
🙁
I don’t want to argue anymore. Can’t we just be friends on the basis of both of us thinking Gran Torino sucks all sorts of balls?
Anyway, it’s not fair of me to play it so cool. I know someone whose opinion I trust who has seen Gone Girl and who says it’s terrific.
I haven’t seen Noah yet. I missed it in theaters. But I love what he did with Pi, Requiem for a Dream, The Wrestler, and Black Swan.
Heck, even Peter Weir and Roman Polanski. Although, the Oscar would never ever award Best Picture to a guy who raped a minor.
So why aren’t we talking about Noah then, ha
I’m saying Gone Girl is more like Dragon Tattoo than Social Network or Benjamin Button. And actually, the evidence bags as clues marketing seems eerily similar to Dragon’s Polaroids as clues marketing. But anyway, I think Dragon Tattoo only gt the noms it did because it came out at the end of Dec. Had it been Oct 3rd, probably not.
In terms of Fincher being due, I think he’s on a short list of directors due to win Best Picture. David Fincher, Christopher Nolan, Paul Thomas Anderson, Spike Jonze, Alexander Payne, Ang Lee, Quentin Tarantino, and Darren Aronofsky.
cirkusfolk
You can’t understand how I have hopes for Gone Girl.
I can’t understand how you dismiss all hope for Gone Girl.
This is a ridiculous debate since neither of us has laid eyes on it.
You say Gone Girl is just like Dragon Tattoo.
I say Gone Girl is nothing like Dragon Tattoo.
What makes them alike to you? Murders? Both based on bestselling books?
Wow. ok. Then in that case Gone Girl and Dragon Tattoo are exactly like Double Indemnity and The Godfather.
“Let’s say for example Danny Boyle didn’t win for Slumdog, do you think the Academy would’ve given him an Oscar for Trance just because?”
Ha ha! God, I hope not. If we look back at Danny’s career, his most deserving film for any of these awards is Trainspotting.
You think Fincher is that due? Like I said before, they ignored him for his best films, so I don’t see them giving it to him if he doesn’t truly deserve it. Let’s say for example Danny Boyle didn’t win for Slumdog, do you think the Academy would’ve given him an Oscar for Trance just because? It is easily his worst film.
“bridesmaid but never a bridge”
Ha ha ha!!! I’ve had some pretty bad typos before, but this might be my favorite. Martin Scorsese is a bridge alright. Ha ha! 🙂
“Side Effects opened 2 weeks before Oscar night on 2013. How is it going to hang on for another 11 and a half months to beat 12 Years a Slave in 2014?”
Wow! That is a staggering amount of time.
And as I said some are off, but if you look at the top 250 I agree with probably 80 percent. How bout you? I thought Gran Torino sucked balls as well. But some people like it just because of the racism it is actually condemning. Go figure. And for the most part, a films score on imdb usually starts at it’s highest and goes down. Just saying.
One of the things that keeps me hopeful about David Fincher, and I have a hunch, Sasha too, is that even the great Martin Scorsese, a longtime “bridesmaid but never a bridge”, FINALLY won his Best Picture Oscar. I sure as hell hope that the Oscar voters will see fit to eventually do the same with Fincher.
Side Effects opened 2 weeks before Oscar night in 2013. How is it going to hang on for another 11 and a half months to beat 12 Years a Slave in 2014?
I’ll bet no more than 400 Oscar voters ever saw Side Effects.
And that is what I think Gone Girl will be. Too dark, too depressing. My favorite film of last year was Place Beyond the Pines.
But it’s the best source we have where everybody in the world can vote on a film.
Just what we need. Christ. The People’s Choice awards run amok on a global scale.
For the record, of the last few films that Soderbergh released, my favorite was Magic Mike.
I think Side Effects got lost in the shuffle. I don’t know for sure that it being released in February had an effect or not. Plus, last year was the best year we’ve seen since 2007, and there were way too many other more deserving films. But, I think Side Effects was terrific. I think other films that got lost in the shuffle were Prisoners, Fruitvale Station, and The Place Beyond the Pines.
Plus, I think Side Effects was a bit too depressing for Oscar’s tastes.
So you think a films imdb score has no relevance?
I think a film’s IMDb score has No Relevance Whatsoever to its Oscar potential.
I think a film’s IMDb score has No Relevance Whatsoever to my own reverence or disdain for a movie.
I think a film’s IMDb score in the 2nd week of its release has No Relevance Whatsoever to its eventual status or lasting value.
Example, Gran Torino, IMDb score 8.2.
Gran fucking Torino has a higher IMDb score than
No Country for Old Men (2007)
Annie Hall (1977)
Touch of Evil (1958)
Network (1976)
The Wizard of Oz (1939)
There Will Be Blood (2007)
The Grapes of Wrath (1940)
The 400 Blows (1959)
8½ (1963)
Strangers on a Train (1951)
Persona (1966)
High Noon (1952)
Jaws (1975)
Notorious (1946)
Fanny and Alexander (1982)
The Terminator (1984)
The Night of the Hunter (1955)
Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf? (1966)
The Battle of Algiers (1966)
The Graduate (1967)
A Fistful of Dollars (1964)
Gravity (2013)
Black Swan (2010)
Turds like Life is Beautiful and Django Unchained have higher IMDb scores than Citizen Kane.
Well I had my doubts about Unbroken too only because people have been touting it since the beginning of the year. Now especially with the recent passing of the main character, I can’t ignore it. Although, Mandelas death didn’t seem to help his movie last year. I personally see this as a weak year. I’m actually liking more summer fare then I usually do (xmen, neighbors, edge tomorrow and hopefully apes and guardians) while the Nov Dec stuff looks to underwhelm. I read some script reviews of Interstellar that have me doubting that film as well.
I agree with you Al on the runner ups Fincher has made. My main concern with this film is simply the material. It’s no different than Dragon Tattoo except it’s being released three months earlier. And Dragon had a huge following. Even though this is a best seller, what makes it different than say Soderburgh’s Side Effects?
I like to predict. I think it’s fun.
Right now: (I’ll go with 5 for now) / I predict Unbroken to win.
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
Gone Girl
Inherent Vice
Unbroken
Ok so why aren’t we talking about Rage starring Nick Cage that comes out this weekend as having potential. You have got to be kidding me with these statements? I’ve been coming to this site for the past five years ( just never posted) and from what I gathered, all you do is make predictions before you see movies.
Ah, okay. I follow you now, Cirkusfolk.
My thoughts on Gone Girl getting a nomination for Best Picture, is I think it will. I like it’s chances, because David Fincher has (so far) been nominated twice before, with The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, and The Social Network. I think both were the “runner-up” to the eventual winner, Slumdog Millionaire and The King’s Speech. With this go-around, I see no reason why Gone Girl can’t compete the same way. Although, I do think that right now, it’s not in the top 2, because I think they are Unbroken and Foxcatcher. So, right now, I don’t think Gone Girl will win Best Picture.
This site doesn’t predict best picture nominees before seeing them? I thought you guys predicted American Hustle as a nominee before it started shooting?
Ha. I believe an imdb score is a pretty accurate guide. Sure I don’t agree with all the ratings. But it’s the best source we have where everybody in the world can vote on a film. Not just the critics. So you think a films imdb score has no relevance?
I don’t guess about which specific Oscars categories a movie might be nominated before I see the movie because I’m not Nostradamus and I’m not an idiot.
By the same token, I don’t dismiss a movie’s Oscar potential before I see the movie because I’m not Nostradamus and I’m not an idiot.
I believe my first comment stated I didn’t think the film would get very many Oscar noms. That’s it. I didn’t say it wouldn’t receive any. I just don’t think it will land picture, director, actor or actress, so that means it’s not a front runner in my book.
Cirkusfolk,
If you’re trying to accuse me of saying Gone Girl will win Best Picture then I think everyone here knows you’re crazy.
Unless I’m mistaken then you’re saying Gone Girl is not on track the be in the Oscar conversation, am I right? If that’s really what you think just say it, so there’s no misunderstanding.
If you’re saying Gone Girl won’t be nominated for any major Oscars then, yes, I feel pretty confident that you’re wrong. We’ll talk again in January. And I hope every week between now and January. In fact, Please be sure to check back on October 4th.
In the meantime you can come report to us whatever you’re seeing people say on the IMDb message boards. Because that’s a really authoritative source.
Both I suppose. I mean honestly how many noms do you think this film will get and for what and we will leave it at that. Otherwise I don’t see the point of you guys trying to disprove what my opinion is if yours isn’t the opposite. I wouldn’t venture to give it more than cinematography and score but I’m sure by now they might be tired of Ross and Reznor.
Cirkusfolk, just so I understand, are you talking to me, or Ryan?
Well I see there’s no point in arguing with you all about it. I guess this is Best Picture. But I will be back to say I told you so. Mark it dude.
October specifically has been 7.4 / 1 odds.
Yeah, the November and December release dates have a 1.6 / 1 odds of nominations. (For BP)
The rest is 2.6 / 1 odds of nominations. (For BP)
Fincher’s most explicit sex scene to date, I don’t think that’s the type of material the “old Academy” eats up.
Kate Winslet, The Reader
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Halle Berry, Monsters Ball
The Academy is not afraid of sex. Academy voters don’t mind seeing actresses having hot sex. Some of the voters prefer it.
Do you think the “Old Academy” men never saw titties and hate the thought of them? The “Old Academy” men were young in the 1970s. Get real.
Wanna put some money on it?
I don’t have any money.
And I don’t think 5 compared to 11 and 12 in Dec and Nov is an even split. It’s half those numbers. I would play those odds.
Right. And those October releases were pretty much the contenders for Best Pic. That was what I was implying when I said too early. Unless you honesty think it will e the Best Pic or runner up, it is too early to stick around.
And May = 2
December = 12
November = 11
October = 5
June = 3
May = 2
July = 2
August = 1
September = 1
I also didn’t mention if Trent Reznor calls this film dark after already scoring Dragon Tattoo and another article mentions it having Fincher’s most explicit sex scene to date, I don’t think that’s the type of material the “old Academy” eats up. I personally want to see the film. I’ve read the book. But since this is a site about betting on award winners, I gotta go what I think the outcome will be.
2010 – 2013:
May – Midnight in Paris / The Tree of Life = 2
June – Winter’s Bone / Toy Story 3 / Beasts of the Southern Wild = 3
July – The Kid’s Are All Right / Inception = 2
August – The Help = 1
September – Moneyball = 1
October – The Social Network / Argo / Gravity / Captain Phillips / 12 Years a Slave = 5
November – 127 Hours / The King’s Speech / The Descendants / Hugo / The Artist / Lincoln / Silver Linings Playbook / Life of Pi / Dallas Buyers Club / Nebraska / Philomena = 11
December – Black Swan / The Fighter / True Grit / War Horse / Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close / Amour / Zero Dark Thirty / Django Unchained / Les Miserables / American Hustle / Her / The Wolf of Wall Street = 12
Pretty spread out with release date months.
December = 12
November = 11
October = 5
June = 3
July = 2
August = 1
September = 1
Wanna put some money on it?
October 3rd is pretty early for an awards campaign.
Gravity opened on October 4
The Departed opened on October 6
so yeah, the 3rd is like 2 days too early. Dead. 🙁
I’m sorry but if a masterpiece like Zodiac didn’t get a single nom, how can this?
Answer: Unlike they did with Zodiac, Oscar voters will watch this one.
I too can’t envision this getting very many Oscar noms. It’s not like Fincher is an automatic awards horse all the sudden. Just because his last three films were recognized, lets not forget is first five (not counting Alien 3)films, and arguably his best, only shared two Oscar noms between them. Editing for Se7en and SFX editing for Fight Club. I’m sorry but if a masterpiece like Zodiac didn’t get a single nom, how can this? I would compare it to his last film, Girl With Dragon Tattoo, as both are based on pulpy novels, but I think that film only got the love it did because of the Christmas release date. October 3rd is pretty early for an awards campaign.
Scott – do you mean Gosling as NPH’s role, or as Affleck’s?
Ryan Gosling would have been a better fit.
I am excited for this but wish they did not show so much in the trailer. Maybe people who have not read the book won’t pick up on the clues, but it seems to give away some major plot points. The second trailer for The Giver does the same thing, but maybe it’s a marketing concept to pull in as many people as possible. I also wish NPH had not been cast. He is too recognizable now from television. But perhaps, we hope, he (and the movie) will be great. I also don’t see awards for this – it’s too genre-specific as a murder mystery, films that the Academy generally ignore.
The ending of the book might be my favorite thing about it.
New embed to replace dead and Gone one. Just let me know if this new one dies too.
Until the video comes back, it’s available here: http://time.com/2962008/gone-girl-trailer-watch/
OH!!! This looks amazing!!! David Fincher, as I’ve said before, is my favorite director right now, and this looks like it will be top 5 of the year for sure. It’s style really reminded me of The Social Network.
The video has been removed. Just FYI.
Looks deliciously pulpy
Good call, Ryan! I think my mind may have just envisioned it as shabby. Isn’t it funny the way your brain manipulates books?
It looks like a standard, pretty interesting-looking, thriller if you can possibly objective. But I can’t, because it is David Fincher that makes me, and thousands of others no doubt, very excited about this.
ok, yeah. I found this sentence in the first few pages. Nick says:
I have read the book and I can tell you that I’m satisfied with everything I’ve read people say about the movie i.e., “a whole new third act!” 🙂 <3 Affleck seems to be at the top of his game and just became a serious Best Actor player, if not for the win, certainly for a nomination!
TO THE WONDER was my #8 of last year and Affleck blew me away! I anointed it from day one and was among the very few that understood its intent! I suspect the "intelligentsia" will reverse all misguided statements in just a fraction of the time it took them with EYES WIDE SHUT! Am I the only one who wanted to sucker punch Willoughby when he mocked Colonel Brandon?!
Looks awesome. I think it DOES have awards written all over it. Maybe not acting-wise but neither did other recent award-y movies like Argo and Life of Pi. I LOVE Fincher and how dark his movies are. This looks so good.
I’ll have to go back and check in the book, Mego. But seems to me that Amy didn’t like the house because it was too much of a “McMansion.”
Didn’t she say in the book that the whole neighborhood — the whole town — was full of desolate remnants of grand but now abandoned mansions, because the recession had pulled the rug out from under so many homeowners who had overextended themselves in fancy new houses?
I might be wrong but that’s how I remember it. Housing estates that had been abandoned, yes, but not shabby.
I want to see this; not so much because of the trailers, but because it’s Fincher.
I am so stoookkkeeed!!!
There’s one thing the bothers me. The house. It was always described as kind of shabby in the book, right? Why do they look like they’re living in a mansion in the movie? Still completely psyched for this, either way. Just a general observation.
When Ben Affleck saw the revamped ending he reportedly said: “This is a whole new third act!”
Two quotes from Gillian Flynn:
This looks and feels exactly like the book. I hope the new ending is 1000X’s better though.
Looks like a good thriller, but I dont see the awards hype for this, maybe score. Of course I didnt see the awards hype for Argo either so this will probably win best pic. I understand the absence of Pike, but people OMG WINNER is a bit too soon.