As we head into awards season, it’s a good time to start talking about the consensus vote. In case you’re new to awards season, or you haven’t been following the drama these many years, we’re still in the “seeing movies/critic reviews/Twitter gauntlet/faux controversies” phase. After that, the critics will submit their top ten lists, which start showing up in early December, then they start immediately voting on their awards for the year. This happens in the first week of December.
We’re still a month and a half away from that and we have a lot of movies left to be seen. The critics, like the industry, like you and me out there in the dark, react to the buzz, the perception and the zeitgeist. Awards are about punctuating the right now, not really about finding the best of the year. That is something no one can really know until years later when we dig up the fossils of our past and decide which ones have stood the test of time and which ones haven’t. Where the Academy Awards are concerned, not many of their top choices do stand the test of time. Not many stand the test of even one year later.
Part of that has to do with how we define and redefine what we think of as great. And some of that has to do with how we think of the people over time as years wear on. Do people still think about Roman Polanski and Woody Allen the same way as they did in the 1970s? Martin Scorsese and Steven Spielberg have honored their legacies by continuing to grow as filmmakers, making their current work respectable so that their past work can continue to thrive in memory.But if you’re an artist who keeps making the same movies over and over again, might your original ones fade as a result? It’s tough to say. Some things last, some things don’t. We change. Our perceptions change. Our definitions of what is acceptable and what isn’t changes. We are currently in an era where younger generations are viewing entertainment through the prism of political correctness of social justice. I had a conversation with a teenager about Fast Times at Ridgemont High and she was saying how racist it was because of Forest Whitaker’s character. I had to sit her down for a chat, shall we say.
But in any given year the Oscar race is all about managing expectations. When I started in 1999 one of the things that motivated me to start an Oscars site was to find out why certain films that won were simply forgotten or downgraded by critics in the years that followed. After being nose deep in the race for as long as I have I now know the answer to that. The Oscar race is about Ms. Right Now, not Ms. Right.
You can watch the way perception changes as the season begins. The earliest film critics groups that vote are the New York Film Critics and the National Board of Review. Both groups have the power to launch a film squarely into the Oscar race. There is a sense that each group either wants to go with the consensus or against. When they go against the consensus for the sake of being original they fail at their job, in my opinion. They should be choosing what they think is best regardless of what everyone else is voting for.
The New York Film Critics choosing American Hustle last year over Gravity, 12 Years a Slave and Wolf of Wall Street was an example of this – they saw it first so they wanted to be the first to hail it as the year’s best. The funny thing about that was that their voting was mostly done in a vacuum without the cloud of perception hanging over it. What they knew already was this: they had to pick the best from among a very narrow list of titles. They knew that most everyone else already thought three films were the year’s best: Gravity, 12 Years a Slave and Inside Llewyn Davis. They were the ones toppling the top ten lists at Movie City News. So New York, being first, went against that consensus and picked American Hustle, which helped launch that film into the race big time.
The National Board of Review is one of my favorite voting groups in the whole race because they, like the HFPA, have this kind of stigma attached to them. They are always accused of being bought and paid for by the studios and no one knows who they are and yet they have that label — the National Board of Review that gets slapped on a film ad and voila, respectability, prestige, awards consideration. They carry equal weight as the New York Film Critics vis a vis the awards race, funnily enough, though voting members of the NYFCC would scoff at this. From my perch, I see little difference in the way people vote from New York on down to the Academy awards. They are all still fishing in the same small pond.
After the New York Film Critics and National Board of Review there isn’t really any other major critics group that can launch a film into the Best Picture race with the possible exception of Los Angeles but Los Angeles comes a bit later, a week or so (which can feel like an eternity during the heat of the season). By the time Los Angeles votes they are already reacting to the consensus, reacting to the trends – and occasionally you can hear them talking about this. I recall one member of the LA Film Critics tweeting that they were definitely not going to vote for Zero Dark Thirty in 2012. That’s because Zero Dark Thirty was launched into the race by the New York Film Critics who saw it first and named it best before anyone else had seen it.
Los Angeles resisted that urge and ended up picking The Descendants. Argo went on to win Best Picture but that is a story for a different time. As you can see by the following chart – there ain’t a huge gap of difference in tastes between these groups with the possible exception of the National Board of Review having MORE daring picks than the New York Film Critics (see chart below).
Once the major groups weigh in with best of the year, the rest of the WAY TOO MANY film critics group begin announcing. They either go with the consensus or they go against it. The only way they can impact the race is if they go with the consensus and help stack the deck. But if they go against the consensus it’s interesting but it doesn’t have much impact simply because there are so many groups and by this point the critics awards are mostly tuned out.
The next big thing that shifts the consensus in one direction or another are the Golden Globe awards. They have the potential to launch a film, or a contender, into the race because they get a lot of publicity. They get a lot of publicity because all of the stars show up to their telecast – it exists unto itself, beyond the Oscars. It can’t always make the difference but the show itself, the Golden Globes program can make a huge difference when it comes to the Academy picking winners.
After the Golden Globes the Critics Choice ring in. But they, like the many critics groups, don’t effect the race at all, not right now. They only stand out insofar as they end up matching the Oscar nominations. But so far I’ve yet to see their nominations really impact the race in any significant way.
In 2012, the Critics Choice did have some impact because Ben Affleck made that “I’d like to thank the Academy…” joke at their show and since it occurred before the Golden Globes it set up a chain of momentum that, when Argo won the Golden Globe, could not be stopped.
But right afterwards, you see the even bigger shift. The giant guilds. The massive consensus votes that can SOMETIMES tell you what can win on a consensus vote and what can’t. When 12 Years a Slave and Gravity tied the Producers Guild that was one of the most unpredictable things I’ve ever seen go down. Usually it’s a straight line from Producers Guild on to Oscar.
That’s because, generally speaking, a consensus is a consensus. When there is conflict, as there was last year, the Best Picture race is interesting and can be difficult to predict. But much of the time the awards are in step with each other because voters tend to vote at the same time.
In the old days, when the Oscars were held in March, there was time to shift the consensus before the Oscar voters had their ballots. But now they have their ballots at the same time as the producers, the directors, the writers and and the actors. The PGA and the DGA clearly have the most weight of all of the major groups.
2012 | DGA | PGA | SAG | EDDIE | Oscar |
2013 | Gravity | Gravity | American Hustle | Captain Phillips/American Hustle | 12 Years |
12 Years | |||||
2012 | Argo | Argo | Argo | Argo/Silver Linings | Argo |
2011 | Michel Hazanavicious, The Artist | The Artist | The Help | The Artist/Descendants | The Artist |
2010 | The King’s Speech | The King’s Speech | The King’s Speech | Social Network | The King’s Speech |
2009 | The Hurt Locker | The Hurt Locker | Inglourious Basterds | The Hurt Locker | The Hurt Locker |
2008 | Slumdog Millionaire | Slumdog Millionaire | Slumdog Millionaire | Slumdog | Slumdog |
2007 | No Country for Old Men | No Country | No Country | Bourne | No Country |
2006 | The Departed | Little Miss Sunshine | Little Miss Sunshine | Babel/The Departed | The Departed |
2005 | Brokeback Mountain | Brokeback Mountain | Crash | Crash | Crash |
2004 | Million Dollar Baby | Million Dollar Baby | Sideways | Ray/Aviator | Million Dollar Baby |
2003 | Return of the King | Return of the King | Return of the King | Return of the King | Return of the King |
2002 | Chicago | Chicago | Chicago | Chicago | Chicago |
2001 | A Beautiful Mind | A Beautiful Mind | Gosford Park | Moulin/Black Hawk | A Beautiful Mind |
2000 | Crouching Tiger | Gladiator | Traffic | Traffic | Gladiator |
1999 | American Beauty | American Beauty+ | American Beauty | Matrix | American Beauty |
1998 | Saving Private Ryan | Saving Private Ryan | Shakespeare in Love | Saving Private Ryan | Shakespeare in Love |
/Shakes | |||||
1997 | Titanic | Titanic+ | The Full Monty | Titanic | Titanic |
1996 | English Patient | English Patient+ | The Birdcage | English Patient+ | English Patient+ |
1995 | Apollo 13 | Apollo 13 | Apollo 13 | Braveheart | Braveheart |
So, what do we talk about when we talk about the consensus? We talk about the film that thousands of people will like best. This is the main reason why divisive films have a hard time winning. They split the consensus and the the one everyone CAN agree on slides into home base.
You might be inclined to think, as I have over the years, that the Directors Guild or the Producers Guild or the Screen Actors Guild surely should know what determines cinematic greatness. But the truth is that the DGA is full of all sorts of different types of people in the field of directing and only some of them direct feature films. Many are associates or assistants who work in television. The Producers Guild has the same kind of loose requirements. They are actively trying to diversify, always, and the DGA has their first openly gay black president now. They didn’t have a woman president until 2002 (Martha Coolidge) and has not had one since.
The tricky part is perception and buzz. These large groups are really a lot like you and me and everyone we know. They are influenced by critics and by perception but at the end of the day they can’t help but to vote for what they like best. They like to be moved and entertained but in lieu of that they will take other motivators like making history.
Really, though, where the Oscar race is concerned, there really is NO THERE THERE. It is built upon puffy clouds of perception that can be manipulated either on purpose or accidentally. If a film gets caught in the crossfire of a massive society debate it can be Zero Dark Thirty and it can go from the highest place to the lowest over a couple of weeks. It’s probable that Zero Dark Thirty wasn’t going to win anyway but still, had it come out a couple of months earlier that fervor might have died down and voters could have regained their like for the film. As it was, it fell at the same time as Affleck and Argo’s star was on the rise and the rest is Oscar history.
Which is the better film now? It’s tough to say. Argo still is a wildly entertaining film that you could put anyone down in front of and they will like it, if not love it. The script is funny and the characters sharp. The direction is breezy and sure-handed. But Zero Dark Thirty is by the far the more challenging, socially relevant and masterful cinematic masterpiece. And so it goes. But people will always love Argo. The two better films than both – Life of Pi and Lincoln are two unforgettable masterpieces by two masters of the form. 2012 was a major year for great filmmaking.
To woo a consensus it’s important to fly under the radar and really look like the “little movie that could.” Human nature seems to dictate that people want to feel their vote is doing good for someone or something. If they don’t, on some level, feel sorry for you or pity you or want you to overcome all odds and win (think: impoverished Indian children) then it’s harder to rally a win in a competitive year.
There simply has to be a rooting interest or voters will not turn up. Will this year be competitive? It’s hard to say. Right now, it’s Boyhood’s to lose. It could just start winning and then never stop. As Mark Harris says – every other film coming out right now has to surpass it in terms of reviews and affection. It’s too early to see which film that will be but one thing I do know – it’s harder to rally a massive consensus of thousands of voters when you come in late. There are too many variables. Too many things that can go wrong with not enough time to recover.
But so far, it looks like an exciting year to come.
Here are the numbers of votes we’re talking about per group.
LAFCA | NBR | NYFCC | ||
1935 | The Informer* | The Informer* | Mutiny on the Bounty | |
1936 | Mr. Deeds Goes to Town* | The Informer*Mr. Deeds Goes to Town* | The Great Zeigfeld | |
1937 | Night Must Fall | The Life of Emile Zola+ | The Life of Emile Zola | |
1938 | The Citadel* | The Citadel* | You Can’t Take It With You | |
1939 | Confessions of a Nazi Spy | Wurthering Heights | Gone with the Wind | |
1940 | The Grapes of Wrath* | The Grapes of Wrath* | Rebecca | |
1941 | Citizen Kane* | Citizen Kane* | How Green Was My Valley | |
1942 | In Which We Serve* | In Which We Serve* | Mrs. Miniver | |
1943 | The Ox-Bow Incident* | Watch on the Rhine* | Casablanca | |
1944 | None But the Lonely Heart | Going My Way | Going My Way | |
1945 | The True Glory | The Lost Weekend | The Lost Weekend | |
1946 | Henry V* | The Best Years of Our Lives | The Best Years of Our Lives | |
1947 | Monseiur Verdoux | Gentlemnan’s Agreement | Gentlemen’s Agreement | |
1948 | Paisan | The Treasure of the Sierra Madre* | Hamlet | |
1949 | Bicycle Thieves | All The King’s Men | All the King’s Men | |
1950 | Sunset Boulevard* | All About Eve+ | All About Eve | |
1951 | A Place in the Sun* | Streetcar Named Desire* | An American in Paris | |
1952 | The Quiet Man* | High Noon* | The Greatest Show on Earth | |
1953 | Julius Caesar* | From Here to Eternity+ | From Here to Eternity | |
1954 | On the Waterfront | On the Waterfront+ | Elia Kazan, On the Waterfront | |
1955 | Marty | Marty+ | Delbert Mann, Marty | |
1956 | Around the World in 80 Days | Around the World in 80 Days+ | Around/World in 80 Days | |
1957 | The Bridge on the River Kwai | Bridge on the River Kwai+ | Bridge on the River Kwai | |
1958 | The Old Man and the Sea | The Defiant Ones* | Gigi | |
1959 | The Nun’s Story* | Ben Hur+ | Ben Hur | |
1960 | Sons and Lovers* | The Apartment+ | Billy Wilder, The Apartment | |
1961 | Question 7 | West Side Story+ | West Side Story | |
1962 | The Longest Day* | none | Lawrence of Arabia | |
1963 | Tom Jones | Tom Jones+ | Tom Jones | |
1964 | Becket* | My Fair Lady+ | My Fair Lady | |
1965 | The Eleanor Roosevelt Story | Darling* | the Sound of Music | |
1966 | A Man for All Seasons | A Man for All Seasons* | A Man for all Seasons | |
1967 | Far from the Maddening Crowd | In the Heat of the Night+ | In the Heat of the Night | |
1968 | The Shoes of the Fisherman | Lion in Winter* | Oliver | |
1969 | They Shoot Horses, Don’t They? | Z* | Midnight Cowboy | |
1970 | Patton+ | Five Easy Pieces* | Patton | |
1971 | Macbeth* | A Clockwork Orange* | The French Connection | |
1972 | Cabaret* | Viskningar och rop | The Godfather | |
1973 | The Sting+ | La Nuit Americaine | The Sting | |
1974 | The Conversation* | Armacord | Godfather II | |
1975 | Dog Day Afternoon* | Barry Lyndon*Nashville* | Nashville* | One Flew Over/Cukoo’s Nest |
1976 | Network* | All the President’s Men* | All the President’s Men* | Rocky |
1977 | Star Wars* | The Turning Point* | Annie Hall+ | Annie Hall |
1978 | Coming Home* | Days of Heaven | The Deer Hunter+ | The Deer Hunter |
1979 | Kramer Vs. Kramer+ | Manhattan* | Kramer Vs. Kramer+ | Kramer Vs. Kramer |
1980 | Raging Bull* | Ordinary People+ | Ordinary People+ | Ordinary People |
1981 | Atlantic City* | Chariots of Fire+Reds* | Reds* | Chariots of Fire |
1982 | E.T.* | Gandhi+ | Gandhi+ | Gandhi |
1983 | Terms of Endearment+ | BetrayalTerms of Endearment+ | Terms of Endearment+ | Terms of Endearment |
1984 | Amadeus+ | A Passage to India* | Passage to India* | Amadeus |
1985 | Brazil | The Color Purple* | Prizzi’s Honor* | Out of Africa |
1986 | Hannah and Her Sisters* | A Room with a View* | Hannah and Her Sisters* | Platoon |
1987 | Hope and Glory* | Empire of the Sun* | Broadcast News* | The Last Emperor |
1988 | Little Dorrit | Mississippi Burning* | The Accidental Tourist* | Rain Man |
1989 | Do the Right Thing | Driving Miss Daisy | My Left Foot* | Driving Miss Daisy |
1990 | Goodfellas* | Dances with Wolves | Goodfellas* | Dances with Wolves |
1991 | Bugsy* | The Silence of the Lambs+ | The Silence of the Lambs+ | Silence of the Lambs |
1992 | Unforgiven+ | Howards End* | The Player | Unforgiven |
1993 | Schindler’s List+ | Schindler’s List+ | Schindler’s List+ | Schindler’s List |
1994 | Pulp Fiction* | Forrest Gump/Pulp Fiction | Quiz Show* | Forrest Gump |
1995 | Leaving Las Vegas | Sense and Sensibility* | Leaving Las Vegas | Braveheart |
1996 | Secrets & Lies* | Shine* | Fargo* | The English Patient |
1997 | L.A. Confidential* | L.A. Confidential* | L.A. Confidential* | Titanic |
1998 | Saving Private Ryan* | Gods and Monsters | Saving Private Ryan* | Shakespeare in Love |
1999 | The Insider* | American Beauty | Topsy-Turvy | American Beauty |
2000 | Crouching Tiger* | Quills | Traffic* | Gladiator |
2001 | In the Bedroom* | Moulin Rouge!* | Mulholland Drive | A Beautiful Mind |
2002 | About Schmidt | The Hours* | Far From Heaven | Chicago |
2003 | American Splendour | Mystic River* | Return of the King | Return of the King |
2004 | Sideways* | Finding Neverland* | Sideways* | Million Dollar Baby |
2005 | Brokeback Mountain* | Good Night, and Good Luck* | Brokeback Mountain* | Crash |
2006 | Letters from Iwo Jima | Letters from Iwo Jima* | United 93 | The Departed |
2007 | There Will Be Blood* | No Country for Old Men+ | No Country for Old Men+ | No Country |
2008 | Wall-E | Slumdog Milionaire+ | Milk* | Slumdog Milionaire |
2009 | The Hurt Locker | Up in the Air* | The Hurt Locker | The Hurt Locker |
2010 | The Social Network | The Social Network* | The Social Network | The King’s Speech |
2011 | The Descendants | Hugo* | The Artist | The Artist |
2012 | Amour | Zero Dark Thirty* | Zero Dark Thirty | Argo |
2013 | Gravity/Her | Her* | American Hustle* | 12 Years a Slave |
Full breakdown details after the jump.
Actors Branch: 1,176 members (19.51%)
Casting Directors: 54 members (0.90%)
Cinematographers Branch: 228 members (3.78%)
Costume Designers Branch: 108 members (1.79%)
Designers Branch: 262 members. (art directors, production designers, set decorators) (4.35%)
Directors Branch: 377 members (6.25%)
Documentary Branch: 210 members (3.48%)
Executives Branch: 450 members (7,47%)
Feature Animation and Short Films Branch : 366 members (6.07%)
Film Editors Branch: 230 members (3.82%)
Makeup Artists And Hairstylists Branch: 135 members (2.24%)
Members-at-large: 217 members (3.60%)
Music Branch: 240 members (3.98%)
Producers Branch: 479 members (7.95%)
Public Relations Branch: 377 members (6.25%)
Sound Branch: 418 members (6.93%)
Visual Effects Branch: 323 members
Writers Branch: 378 members (6.27%)
Total Voting Members: 6,028 (up 172 from 2012)