20th BFCA Critics’ Choice Nominations!

P.S. Yes, there can be a correlation between the scores (at Metacritic, Rotten Tomatoes) and awards. But I’m sure we can all name highly rated movies that got snubbed, and lower-rated pictures that got nominations and more kudos. So many factors go into it.

And this would make sense given the the film only scored a 73 on Metacritic. Sure the BFCA tends to score a number of films higher than the elitist group of critics that MC uses, but I rarely see that much disparity…

Benutty: ”The BFCA … is honoring what they think the AMPAS will honor.”
Ryan Adams: ”That claim is impossible to prove, impossible to substantiate.”
Granted, we cannot know the motive of every BFCA voter.
Still, ”Historically, the Critics’ Choice Movie Awards are the most accurate predictor of the Academy Award nominations.”
And where does that boast come from? The website of the Critics’ Choice Movie Awards itself.
The BFCA takes pride, because if it’s the best Oscar precursor, it’s taken more seriously by stars, TV viewers, etc.
So do the BFCA awards reflect what its members rave about or are they Oscar predictions?
Take the case of ”Me and Orson Welles” (2008). It scored a perfect 100 from the BFCA membership.
But when BFCA nominations came out, it got only 1: for Supporting Actor for Christian McKay.
Like sheep, the BFCA gave the only nomination that other critics’ groups had given to McKay.
You would think that a movie that scores a perfect 100 would be worth a Best Picture nod.
Not even the director of ”Me and Orson Welles” got nominated.
His name? Richard Linklater. Gee, whatever happened to him? 😉

just swap Chastian for an even more masculine looking actress)

HHHHWHAT?!

The nominations for picture director actor and actress are just perfect in my opinion.
I didn’t like Carell in Foxcatcher and I hope he will not get in at the Oscars, a lot of better performances deserve a nomination.

I mean Bale’s doing his Dark Knight voice and the imagery looks eerily familiar to the bar scene in Black Swan…

um there has been a surprise nominee almost every single year…I don’t know why people think that just because you’ve been nominated for sg//gg your chances are over. ask jacki weaver or max von sydow. im still confident cotillard will make it in and I echo everything paddy said.

Finally, Marion is not excluded from these nominations! I wish she won’t be snubbed this time at The Oscars. She doesn’t deserve to be left out again. Her powerhouse performance is hands down the best female performance of the year. And I also don’t think that AMPAS will prefer Jennifer Aniston’s performance in Cake instead. I mean seriously?

“The Academy favours critically-acclaimed films with established names behind the camera and an air of prestige around them. That’s why I still doubt that they’d pick Aniston over, say, Hilary Swank or Marion Cotillard.”

There’s also the preferential ballot, which seems like it would favor, say, Cotillard over Aniston. I think you get nominated for a SAG for just appearing on the most number of ballots, whereas you receive an Oscar nomination for how high you finish on X number of ballots. SAG favors most mentions, Oscar favors highest placed mentions. This seems to me like it might work to Aniston’s disadvantage, but what do I know?

“If Maggie Gyllenhaal can earn an Oscar nomination following a sole fifth place citation from the Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association for Crazy Heart, and literally nothing else, then Hilary can do it for this role in this film in this race.”

The difference, though, is that Gyllenhaal probably managed to coattail on Jeff Bridges. Jonah Hill last year was probably also helped by Leo and the film’s strong showing with AMPAS in general. A lot of times the acting nominations sort of double up–a strong contender in one category can pull on another candidate from the same movie. Swank is flying solo for her film. On the other hand, maybe she’ll take a cue from her director and pull a Tommy Lee Jones for In the Valley of Elah.

Inspiring quest there. What happened after? Good luck!

web page (Neil)

LC, my hope is that yes people would vote for Godzilla on a ballot of 10 best picture nominees if they decided to put it in their own top 10 pictures of the year. But I agree with you (albeit with much lament) that ultimately isn’t how it shakes down.

It really comes down to DGA and the editors Guild. Boyhood wins those, combined with Arquette it’s basically over.

@StevenKane: Exactly. And I think it’s also true the Oscar voters will always have curve balls, and I am intrigued to know what they are this year. Last year the curve balls to me included the omissions of Tom Hanks and Emma Thompson, both of who were showing up everywhere else- but they most likely lost their slots to the likes of Christian Bale and Amy Adams, in favor of the American Hustle hype (which thank God didn’t win a thing; talk about getting Hustled).

This year Best Actress would be great if we got someone like Cotillard or Swank to replace Felicity, who I keep hearing is “just okay” but is most likely riding the wave of the success of her film. Need to see the movies before I can judge; I have seen Still Alice, and think Moore is splendid- didn’t care for the movie though.

@ STEVEN

Yes true, there are films like that. Drive of course was another that the BFCA apparently loved as well as other critics, but had little shot at the Oscars.

For me the best AND most favorite of 2010 was Inception. Fincher’s films tend to be high on my best list but not so much most favorite. Girl with the Dragon Tattoo was an exception though and I was disappointed to see it snubbed while at the same time being fairly well recognized. Gone Girl seems to be doing better with the critics at least (6 BFCA nods for GG vs only 2 for GWTDT) and to me the most interesting question of this year is where Nolan and Fincher (arguably the two best aueteur directors of today) will do with the Academy. Both seem to straddle the line when it comes to the AMPAS’s tastes…

This puts things in an interesting position…

BIRDMAN – 13 nominations
THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL – 11 nominations
BOYHOOD – 8 nominations
INTERSTELLAR – 7 nominations
GONE GIRL – 6 nominations
THE IMITATION GAME – 6 nominations
GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY – 5 nominations
INTO THE WOOD – 5 nominations
SELMA – 5 nominations
THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING (5)

Unfortunately it seems there’s a really good chance that Wes Anderson won’t be left out in the cold this time as it would otherwise be the highest BFCA nomination getter since the field Best Pic field expansion not to be nominated. Guardians is more than likely the Star Trek, Hobbit, Looper of this year from the previous list I posted. Everything else seems a go with the exception of Gone Girl, Interstellar, and Into the Woods being on the bubble; Gone Girl probably the more sure bet as it did make the BFCA’s Best Film list which has matched on at least 8 films the last 5 years. If I had to put money on it I would guess that Nightcrawler and Unbroken are most vulnerable from the Best Film list in terms of not proceeding to the Oscars. It looks like Foxcatcher may be completely out of the picture now but I haven’t yet looked up the stats on which lowest BFCA nomination count films received an Oscar nod. I only know that last year Philomena got in and it only had 2 BFCA nods so perhaps Foxcatcher still has a chance. Miller has had two previous films nominations afterall.

My point about Jennifer Aniston refers to campaigning tactics and types of films. SAG had nominated her nine times previously, and were sent screeners for a beloved star in a baity role. An easy get. No doubt special screenings were arranged for HFPA memberrs, and they do love a big name on their red carpet. Another easy get. BFCA like to follow the herd, whilst predicting what seem to be likely Oscar nominees, and also love a big name in attendance at their awards telecast. Another easy get. The Academy favours critically-acclaimed films with established names behind the camera and an air of prestige around them. That’s why I still doubt that they’d pick Aniston over, say, Hilary Swank or Marion Cotillard. I’d even say they’d be more likely to pick a contender from out of blue than Aniston – Patricia Arquette in Leading rather than Supporting, or Anne Dorval for Mommy (although that film is seriously flagging).

Btw, Hilary Swank is so not out. I mean plz, fucking learn your shit, Oscar watchers. If Maggie Gyllenhaal can earn an Oscar nomination following a sole fifth place citation from the Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association for Crazy Heart, and literally nothing else, then Hilary can do it for this role in this film in this race. At this point (or at any other), I’m not gonna tolerate people making such nonsensical assumptions.

That claim is impossible to prove, impossible to substantiate.

Ain’t gonna stop me from seconding it!

LC, wanna know something crazy? I remember when Into the Wild was pretty hit or miss with the critics. I remember the morning when the SAG nominations were announced and it had the MOST with 4. I remember when the BFCA nominations and it had the MOST with 7 (this was before nods for art direction, cinematography, ect). Oscar morning…2. Just 2. All along I never thought it would get more than a few Oscar nominations but I never thought it would get so many nominations from the other groups like that. It really changed the way I viewed the race. Shit I think Black Swan (though best picture nominated) got something like 12 or 13 BFCA nominations.

Another good point though…best versus favorite. Personal top 10…what? Top 10 best or top 10 favorite? A lot of people can’t separate the two. I can see how The Social Network wasn’t everyone’s favorite but, as you stated, LC, it was an amazingly crafted film. I can see how The King’s Speech was a favorite for a lot of people. That’s the perfect example of “best” versus “favorite”. I watched King’s Speech when it came out on Blu-ray and couldn’t help but thinking, “I’m having a good time watching it, I love watching it, it makes me feel good…but it’s not really that amazing on a technical level.” The Social Network was both the best crafted and favorite of mine. Last year, to me, 12 Years a Slave was the best movie while Her was my favorite and even then I put Her as the 2nd or 3rd best of the year.

Josh R, well of course there are certainly variables but the point was that people made it in when they weren’t expected to or were always on the bubble. I remember group after group, awards show after awards show, Jonah hill kept missing out until the very end. I don’t even think Maggie Gyllenhaal was considered too much. But again this is a year when somebody could slide in unexpectedly especially if it’s a foreign language performance people haven’t been paying attention to, like one of the ladies from Ida.

No Steve Carell makes me sad. No Interstellar makes me happy.

BFCA seems to be more in touch with the academy than the Globes, so maybe this is our final list of nominees sans the 6th mention on every category, which is an unnecesary way to say “boo fucking hoo we won’t miss a nominee from AMPAS.”

I’m sorry, LC, but this makes no logical sense to me: “Why are we to think that either the BCFA members or the AMPAS vote or their personal favorites? Some are able to separate their favorites and their guilty pleasures from what they deem to be quality films and among the Best Films of the year.”

Why would you assume that a FILM CRITIC dissociates their own Best of 2014 list from what they VOTE FOR ON A BALLOT ASKING FOR THE BEST OF THE YEAR?!?! Makes no goddamn sense.

The truth is–and THIS isn’t interstellar rocket science and doesn’t take any mind- & soul-reading to deduce–that if everyone who voted on awards voted their conscious, independent of any consensus they’ve either helped generate or witnessed develop, then the nominees and winners across the variety of groups that we hear from would not reach such a numbing consensus. Even if there are ” approximately 20 truly great movies every year” (and while I’m not going to ARGUE that statement, I will say that I disagree with it) that list of 20 can not be relied upon to overlap person to person with any measurable consistency.

What IS consistent is people’s desire to vote for what they think will win–because voting for the winner means more than voting with your heart.

I mean it is written in the voting rules that they must only nominate their favorite films of the year and they are punished if their ballots don’t align with their Top 10 lists? I don’t think so…

Why are we to think that either the BCFA members or the AMPAS vote or their personal favorites? Some are abie to separate their favorites and their guilty pleasures from what they deem to be quality films and among the Best Films of the year. For instance The Social Network was not one of my favorites in the least but there’s no denying it was a well crafted film and deserved the nominations that it received.

Ryan–this is an actual question, I’ll investigate as much as I can–but, for instance, how many personal Top Ten lists does The Theory of Everything ACTUALLY show up on? Specifically with BFCA voting members?

I did some IMDBing to see what went on with those “out-of-the-blue” nominees Ryan cited. The year Tommy Lee Jones was nominated for Valley of Elah, two of the SAG nominees for Best Actor were Emile Hirsch for Into the Wild and Ryan Gosling for Lars and the Real Girl. Marcia made it past Globe nominee Catherine Zeta-Jones (Traffic) and SAG nominee Kate Winslet (Quills) for the fifth berth. Maggie was chosen over Globe nominee Julianne Moore (A Single Man) and SAG nominee Diane Kruger (Inglorious Basterds). And Jonah Hill probably got his nomination at the expense of Rush’s Daniel Bruhl, who was nominated by both organizations.

I guess the common denominator with all of these surprise nominations is that – while you can’t fairly say the competition for those spots was exactly “weak” – they didn’t really have to claw their way past anyone who had really attained the status of a consensus choice, or was grabbing off all sorts of critics citations. Aniston has been nominated just about everywhere, and Cotillard has probably had the best showing of any lead actress with the critics organizations. It’s all relative, of course. I just think Swank has a tougher task than any of those other folks in terms of the caliber of the competition she’s facing – it’s going to be a lot tougher to displace one of those ladies than it was to leagfrog Emile Hirsch or Diane Kruger.

Angelina pops up again, ugh. The rest is the usual stuff. Still happy about the love for Grand Budapest, Whiplash, Nightcrawler… and Birdman, of course 🙂

I don’t why but I’m still not sure that Gone Girl will be in the BP lineup for the Oscars. And that Mike Leigh will be nominated for either directing or screenplay. The won’t leave him empty-handed.

ugh, I really wish this site had an edit feature. I guess I shouldn’t be so quick to hit the submit comment…

But Ryan none of that negates the point that I’m making–the BFCA isn’t trying to honor what they think should be honored, they’re honoring what they think AMPAS will honor.

That’s a problem.

@LCBaseball22

The difference being that none of these movies inspired enough passionate support to get a lot of #1s, save for Moonrise Kingdom, The Master and Drive, which were too “different” for the Academy’s taste. Interstellar, on the other hand, is, save for the sci-fi elements, right up their alley — movie-movie, serious themes, populist-ish treatment, emotional appeal, white male saves the day, etc.

Just did some research out of curiosity and found that these have been the highest nomination counts to not receive a Best Pic nomination at the Oscars:

Nine- 10 nominations
Drive- 8 nominations
The Master – 7 Nominations
Skyfall – 7 Nominations
The Lovely Bones- 6 nominations
The Town- 5
Moonrise Kingdom – 5 Nominations
Star Trek- 5 nominations
Looper – 5 Nominations
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug – 5 Nominations

Interstellar has 7, hmm…

Gran Budapest – Yay!
Foxcatcher – Wow, very surprised!

That lack of Princess Kaguya in the Best Animated Feature nomination list bothers me as well. I hope the Academy doesn’t forget about it like so many of the critic associations.

Josh R, you never know. Tommy Lee Jones got a best actor nomination for In the Valley of Elah with nothing more than a Satellite nod (I believe nothing else). Marcia Gay Harden won an Oscar with nothing but a NYFCC win and an Indie Spirit nod. Jonah Hill and Wolf of Wall Street? If memory serves he may have been nominated for a Dallas critics award…Maggie Gyllenhaal and Crazy Heart, practically nothing. Marco Beltrami and both of his Oscar nominations, which means he could get another for The Homesman. Swank is loved enough so there may be light at the end of the tunnel for her.

I think certain folks are just going to need to give up the ghost as far as Swank is concerned. She’s very good in The Homesman, but I think it’s pretty clear at this point that it’s not gonna happen. With Moore and Witherspoon locked in, and Jones and Pike looking like pretty solid bets, it’s going to be tough for anyone to leapfrog past both Aniston, who’s on quite the roll, AND Cotillard, the critics darling, for that fifth spot.

“Does anyone else find it actually quite embarrassing how suspiciously close these nominations are to everything that the pundits–most of whom are voting members of the BFCA now–have predicting all year?”

That’s the BFCA’s m.o., really. Their nominations in recent years have consistently amounted to self-important Oscar punditry. They even include six nominees instead of five so they have a better shot at getting everybody right (see: Best Supporting Actor this year). And they were especially shameless this time around, too — I mean, Jolie for Best Director or Aniston for Best Actress are the kind of facile pat on the back you’d expect from a guild or the HFPA, but not from so-called “critics.”

I still think Unbroken is not getting in, but this list just might have placed it on equal terms with Foxcatcher and Mr. Turner, which pisses me off beyond reason. On the other hand, I’m happy for Wes and DuVernay, and really hope they manage to hold their own all the way to the Oscars.

Well, they certainly do love Brangelina! Showering their films with nomination so they’ll show up and boost their TV ratings.

Angelina Jolie? Seriously????

Then again it’s the fucking CRITICS CHOICE and the only name they can remember of a foreign film in a major prize is Marion Cotillard. This is a fucking Popularity contest! I’m kind of tired of it

I’m kind of surprised that Unbroken did so well, even though I really shouldn’t be, given this is the BFCA.

Foxcatcher did take a hit today. Carell is getting shakier and shakier for that #5 slot. I think he’s probably going to miss out at the end. But I think Ruffalo is pretty safe, given supporting actor is a less competitive category this year. I don’t think AMPAS will completely shut out Foxcatcher, and supporting actor is a good place to give it a nod.

Interstellar seems on its last legs. If it can’t make the BFCA Top 10, its chances look grim indeed. Even War Horse and Extremely Loud managed a BFCA BP nod. If Interstellar misses in PGA, we just have to bury the body and move on. If it makes the PGA list, there’s still a glimmer of hope, I suppose.

And The Imitation Game is missing out on director nominations everywhere, which seems right, somehow, although I haven’t seen the movie so can’t offer up my own opinion.

Also, I think this is the end of “Hillary Swank” possibility…She is good in that movie, but again it is a very small movie and doesnt seem to have much going on. Maybe even Hillary knows that she does not have much chance so, unlike Reese who is everywhere, she stays under the radar!

@ Steven Kane I 100% agree. No other score this year comes even remotely close to Mica Levi’s score for Under the Skin. Unlike Hans Zimmer’s bombastic, oppressively loud, and ultimately distracting score to Interstellar, Levi’s score used loudness, repetition, and dissonance enhanced the film and was essential to the overall viewing experience. Along with Johannson’s incredible performance, no other element of Under the Skin contributed to the dehumanizing and disassociative experience of watching Under the Skin as much as Mica Levi’s score.

I don’t know why but I thought Under the Skin would make more of a showing here. Fingers crossed Mica Levi’s amazing score is still remembered come Oscar morning…but knowing those asshats I doubt it.

Oh, Only Oscars had 6 nominees for acting categories:)

I think now we have those 6 names in each acting category and one from each will be left out…The question is who???

If both Interstellar and Unbroken were directed by unknowns, it would have been a huge Oscar contender.

Interstellar deserves a razzie award more than an oscar.

Foxcatcher and Steve Carell are taking some major hits and my boy Jake’s momentum keeps building. Our nominees for best actor look like:
1. Keaton
2. Oyelowo
3. Redmayne
4. Cumbie
5. Gyllenhaal

Steve Carell and Foxcatcher look fucked. I would not be surprised to see a further Supporting Actor slot open up in place of Mark Ruffalo.

Director line up = Golden Globe “Five” + Angelina Jolie !

I sincerily hope Interstellar makes it into the Best Pic category at the oscars, there’s really no other movie like it this year.

I guess Selma is in, then. It’s kinda certain now that it was only absent from the early awards because too few had seen it and momentum hadn’t built up enough. Would be v pleased to see it recognised in Screenplay or Editing one of these days to assist its Oscar hopes, but things are defs looking up for the film atm. And a little down for Bradley Cooper after these nominations.

I’m yet to be convinced by Jennifer Aniston’s Oscar chances. I mean plz. It’s so easy to get in with SAG, with HFPA or with BFCA, but AMPAS? Not nearly so simple. I don’t foresee them shunning Hilary Swank or Marion Cotillard in her favour. Indeed, I’d be more inclined to predict Oscar noms for surprises like Patricia Arquette in Leading rather than Supporting, or Anne Dorval (though Mommy is admittedly flagging hard) than for Aniston.

Of course, Interstellar gets bastardized to the Best Sci/Fi category but doesn’t make Best Picture, just like the final Harry Potter got Best Action film iirc…

Don’t understand how it can be a top nomination getter with 7 and not get in. As has been pointed out the last films shut out of Best Pic had at most 5 nominations (Dragon Tattoo and Skyfall) and I expect Interstellar gets at least 6 so we shall see…BFCA might not be so spot on this year

Kind of shocked at the lack of Foxcatcher love.

“I can honestly see the BFCA nominating either Brolin or Duvall, maybe both and have 6 supporting actor nominees and THAT’S where things get truly interesting.”
I said it on the other article! It’s a fight for the 5th!

Does anyone else find it actually quite embarrassing how suspiciously close these nominations are to everything that the pundits–most of whom are voting members of the BFCA now–have predicting all year? Case in point: Unbroken.

I mean, honestly, would Aniston and The Grand Budapest Hotel have made it in if both hadn’t started showing up with other bodies in only the last week?

Go Grand Budapest!