The Best Picture race has just got a little more interesting. Where Boyhood still has the lead, it has two movies to beat and both are very strong films in the race all of a sudden. The biggest surprise of all is the appearance of little known Morten Tyldum in the Best Director race, even when the BAFTA did not include him in theirs. They went for James Marsh instead for The Theory of Everything. But Tyldum’s appearance in the race now makes The Imitation Game a lot stronger of a competitor against Boyhood. To win Best Picture, generally, you need the additional Directing, Editing, Writing and Acting nominations. No nominations hurts Grand Budapest Hotel – though it’s not out of the race entirely. Anyone inclined to vote for it, though, is someone who thinks outside the box and doesn’t like the three frontrunners.
Here is how it is shaking out:
Boyhood
Acting nominations – 2
Directing
Writing
Editing
The Imitation Game
Acting nominations 2
Directing
Writing
Editing
Birdman
Acting nominations – 3
Directing
Writing
American Sniper, and Whiplash have no corresponding directing nominations. Selma has only two nominations total. You might think that puts it at a disadvantage but back in 1932 Grand Hotel won Best Picture and that was its only nomination. It’s not outside the realm of possibility that it could win but it’s outside the realm of probability.
My instincts are telling me that Birdman is Boyhood’s biggest challenger at the moment because it is the anti-Boyhood vote. Both films are accused of being “gimmicks” — one is about an actor’s futility in a changing world. The other is a real time coming of age. Birdman should be wildly popular with the actors – it also gives people a hit when they see it. They feel invigorated, amped up, super-charged. Boyhood makes one feel reflective, somber, gazing back at one’s life with bittersweet contemplation.
But Birdman is also a movie where its only source of depth can be found in its main character’s trajectory. Everyone else in the film is mostly a hollow apparition. There isn’t a lot of there there outside Keaton’s breathtaking performance other than bravura filmmaking, which certainly is enough but might not turn on the voters’ heart lights like Boyhood will.
Finally, Harvey Weinstein has an “important” movie and he’s going to run with it. No other film checks every Oscar box like The Imitation Game. And that fact might its biggest weakness for a win, as Grantland’s Mark Harris once explained. They might not want to play into the predictable hand. The film is the one that has the biggest emotional punch at the end. He overcomes two obstacles – being gay in a world that rejected homosexuality and being “on the spectrum,” with an inability to communicate with people well. Finally, dude helps beat back the Nazis and stars a charismatic British super star. What more could Oscar vote want? That is their catnip. Also, it will make a goodly amount of money at the box office to justify it being in the race at all.
Boyhood is walking a delicate line. Their publicity team has been doing their best to fly under the radar and only now pulling out the big guns. Linklater and Arquette and the whole team have given themselves over as much as they can to make sure the movie gets a fair shot in a difficult market to sell this kind of movie. They picked the right awards strategist to give it the look of a serious Oscar campaign while also continuing to sell it as the remarkable little movie that could. They are up against the two most aggressive campaigners in the business and with these three you pretty much have how modern Oscar campaigns are run now. There’s a reason they’re called the best and you’re seeing that play out now.
Also ferocious behind the scenes are the teams behind American Sniper, Selma and Theory of Everything. We in the Oscar game know the seeds are planted early. No movie lands in the Oscar race accidentally. They are planted there, nurtured, watered and protected as long as possible. Even the critics couldn’t really knock out American Sniper or Theory or Imitation, even though they weren’t as well reviewed as the three frontrunners.
Boyhood’s biggest challenger looked like Selma for a while there. Now that Selma’s been knocked out of the race mostly, that leaves the other two to put pressure on the frontrunner. It will be a fight to the finish – an Oscar bloodbath of the highest order. I do not currently know who will come out on top but I suddenly feel that Boyhood could have some serious competition all of a sudden. I didn’t think it would if the movies I hoped would get into the race, did. The darker films like Gone Girl, Nightcrawler and Foxcatcher only help boost the wonderfulness of Boyhood. But this is like a game of chess. With two movies coming up beside Boyhood and challenging it for the top prize things could get ugly.
In the other categories, the Best Actor race is mostly Keaton’s. He’s going to have major competition with Cumberbatch and Redmayne and now, Bradley Cooper. Sniper seems destined to win maybe both Sound categories and perhaps editing, while Birdman should take home original screenplay and actor.
Best Actress is Julianne Moore’s to lose but she just got some major competition with Marion Cotillard’s sudden appearance in the race. She gave a great performance but I’ve never been on the “Cotillard nailed on a cross” train like many who write about film. The great injustice, in their minds, gathered them all together to vote for her. I never saw it that way, though she’s great in the film and worthy of a nomination. Because they shut out Gone Girl I hope Pike takes it. Given this silly Academy’s cliched way of picking nominees we should not expect that to happen. But let it be known, Amazing Amy is the female protagonist the Academy has coming.
Director is still Linklater’s to lose. I’m not buying the split prediction of Inarritu taking it and Boyhood taking Best Picture. Why would they do that to Linklater? He should get all of the credit for Boyhood. And to that, there is some rumbling that Boyhood takes director and Imitation Game takes picture. That would be one of those wins that immediately sparks outrage, controversy and backlash agains the movie. But if anyone can pull that out, the Weinstein Co. can.
Original Screenplay looks to be a fight between Grand Budapest and Birdman. I’m thinking Birdman takes it, especially if Boyhood takes Picture and Director.
Adapted Screenplay is now a wash without Gillian Flynn. Whatever wins there it won’t be the most deserving and not a better screenplay than the one she wrote. I’d look for Imitation Game to win there. Unfortunately, the Academy deemed Whiplash adapted, which knocked Gone Girl out of the race. I suppose that puts Whiplash in the frontrunner’s spot to win. The problem with the Flynn snub is that the WGA and the Scripter could not vote for her screenplay because it wasn’t nominated for an Oscar. People want to be on the winning side — thus, in the past frontrunners like Flynn that are taken early lose to screenplays that ARE nominated. This category has no frontrunner now – any of these mostly weak screenplays could win. At the moment I’d go with Sniper or Imitation Game. You won’t know if Chazelle will win the Oscar because he’ll only be competing in original for the precursors.
Grand Budapest should take the design categories fairly easily; much of the time the winner in a category leans towards a Best Picture contender, but not always. Love for the movie amounts to love in the tech categories, especially if the film isn’t winning any of the major categories.
Probably there won’t be that many surprises, but there is no way Selma will lose Best Song. How sad that it comes to that — but Spike Lee said it best, fuck ’em, #1. And #2, the test of a great film is whether people will be talking about it in twenty years. Already, the only name that bubbled up to the top of the news cycle yesterday was the first black woman to have a film come anywhere near the Oscar race, Ava DuVernay.
Best Picture
1. Boyhood
2. Birdman
3. The Imitation Game
4. Selma
5. American Sniper
6. The Grand Budapest Hotel
7. Whiplash
8. The Theory of Everything
Best Actor
1. Michael Keaton, Birdman
2. Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
3. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
4. Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
5. Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Best Actress
1. Julianne Moore, Still Alice
2. Marion Cotillard, 2 Days, 1 Night
3. Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
4. Reese Witherspoon, Wild
5. Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Supporting Actor
1. JK Simmons, Whiplash
2. Edward Norton, Birdman
3. Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
4. Robert Duvall, The Judge
5. Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Supporting Actress
1. Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
2. Laura Dern Wild
3. Emma Stone, Birdman
4. Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
5. Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
Director
1. Richard Linklater, Boyhood
2. Alejandro G. Inarritu, Birdman
3. Wes Anderson, Grand Budapest Hotel
4. Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game*
5. Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
Original Screenplay
1. Alejandro Inarritu et al, Birdman
2. Wes Anderson, Grand Budapest Hotel
3. Richard Linklater, Boyhood
4. Dan Gilroy, Nightcrawler
5. E. Max Frye, Dan Futterman, Foxcatcher
Adapted Screenplay
1. Damien Chazelle, Whiplash
2. Graham Moore, The Imitation Game
3. Jason Hall, American Sniper
4. Anthony McCarten, The Thoery of Everything
5. Paul Thoman Anderson, Inherent Vice
Editing
1. American Sniper
2. Boyhood
3. The Grand Budapest Hotel
4. Whiplash
5. The Imitation Game
Cinematography
1. Birdman
2. Grand Budapest Hotel
3. Mr. Turner
4. Unbroken
5. Ida
Production Design
1. Grand Budapest Hotel
2. The Imitation Game
3. Mr. Turner
4. Into the Woods
5. Interstellar
Sound Mixing
1. American Sniper
2. Birdman
3. Whiplash
4. Interstellar
5. Unbroken
Sound Editing
1. American Sniper
2. Interstellar
3. Birdman
4. Unbroken
5. The Hobbit
Costume Design
1. Into the Woods
2. Grand Budapest Hotel
3. Maleficent
4. The Imitation Game
5. Mr. Turner
Original Score
1. Theory of everything
2. Grand Budapest Hotel
3. Interstellar
4. The Imitation Game
5. Mr. Turner
![2025 Oscars: Can a Late-Breaker Still Win Best Picture? [POLL]](https://www.awardsdaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/gladiator-350x250.jpg)
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“1. Birdman is NOT going to win Best Cinematography. Have we learned nothing from the past years about this category? The Academy chooses films that are usually the “most pretty”. Examples: “Pan’s Labryinth” over “Children of Men” and “Hugo” over “The Tree of Life”. Birdman is gritty and does not fall under this category’s past examples of winners. If anything, Grand Budapest Hotel will surely win this category.”
Yes, this! I kept thinking Birdman didn’t feel like a Best Cinematography winner for some reason, and I couldn’t put my finger on it. You’re absolutely right, that’s the explanation! I don’t think it’s winning it either. 🙁
1. Birdman is NOT going to win Best Cinematography. Have we learned nothing from the past years about this category? The Academy chooses films that are usually the “most pretty”. Examples: “Pan’s Labryinth” over “Children of Men” and “Hugo” over “The Tree of Life”. Birdman is gritty and does not fall under this category’s past examples of winners. If anything, Grand Budapest Hotel will surely win this category.
2. I think there will be an upset in Best Actor. Why? Because someone who plays a real-life person always wins each year in either the Best Actor or Best Actress category, or both. Remember that year we thought Viola Davis was going to win? Well Meryl won instead for playing Margaret Thatcher. Or how about that year Mickey Rourke was a slam dunk win for The Wrestler? Nope, Sean Penn won for playing Harvey Milk. Oddly enough, Michael Keaton has that kind of Mickey Rourke vibe going for him. Performance of his career, comeback, etc., blah, blah. But no one wins for a comedy really. I would keep my eye out for Eddie Reymane and Benedict Cumberbatch.
It´s so boring this year!
You can say for sure that if an actor wins the Golden Globe, Critics´Choice, SAG and Bafta award, will also win the Oscar. Every year it´s the same thing.
In terms of Meryl Streep: I think she is really one of the greatest actresses of our time and the academy knows that and honor her with a nomination. The audience loves her and it would be even more boring without her at an awards show!
“I’m not buying the split prediction of Inarritu taking it and Boyhood taking Best Picture.” – Also, no way in hell there will be a Picture/Director mismatch THREE years in a row.
“I would personally swap out Bennett Miller for Ava DuVernay, because I think Foxcatcher is Miller’s weakest movie and I think DuVernay’s SELMA is infused with poetry and powerful imagery that touched me in ways I was not prepared to feel.”
I would swap Miller for anyone but Eastwood (or Marsh), to be honest. I didn’t like Foxcatcher. It left me stone cold. The color palette of the movie – the draining of colors, rather – was a mirror of how unappetizing I found it on closer inspection. I didn’t feel that Miller took much interest in his characters, he cared more about his heavy-handed sense of symbolism and the dread of premonition. Carell? His performance is among the years’ most overrated, I think. Which is depressing, since he took a spot from Gyllenhaal, Fiennes or Spall:(
“Has anyone heard from Mark (”I hate Bennett Miller”) Schultz about his reaction to the Oscar nominations?”
Uhm, yes?
Mark Schultz @MarkSchultzy
Congrats to all nominees for #Foxcatcher.
He seems pretty cool with it.
WW — Totally agree that GBH is the most-loved of Wes Anderson’s movies, just based on the noms. And I would say it is my favourite film of his. (I never “got” Rushmore.) So I wouldn’t disagree that GBH is one of the dark horses, perhaps THE dark horse in the Picture race. But I still think Boyhood has this one in the bag. It had it at hello.
And I do think Anderson needs to spread his wings now, and show that he is more than a one-trick pony. It is one thing to have a signature style — it is another to have that style so specific and narrow and to adhere to it in every shot of every movie. I can’t think of a film maker who is regarded as truly great who is so narrow in his stylistic sense. Fellini, for instance, had an immediately recognizable style in his later films, although he had an earlier style in in early 50s films (e.g. I Vitelloni, La Strada) that was more influenced by Italian neo-realism. But even within Fellini’s later signature style (seen in 8 1/2, La Dolce Vita, and the subsequent films) there was lots of variety within that style.
The acting races are over.
Moore has zero competition – a veteran with zero Oscars and an astonishing and performance which is raved by critics (although some people don’t want to acknowledge that fact) is up against two Oscar-winners (one of them wasn’t nominated by the Globes, SAG and not even BAFTA although she’s European) and two British breakthrough-actresses – one is outshone by her co-star, the other one’s movie is unfairly completely shut out in the other categories although it had chances (Still Alice didn’t have a chance in another category, but Gone Girl had – a sign that the voters didn’t correspond to Gone Girl).
J. K. Simmons has this in his bag. The Academy might like Edward Norton but you cannot deny the fact that Simmons performance is not only the best nominated performance of this year but also of the whole new decade.
Arquette has no competition at all.
The actor race is the only one that could be surprising – but I really doubt that Keaton will lose this. Carell has no chance, Cooper wasn’t nominated by the other precursors (only Marcia Gay Harden can win without the precursor nominations) and I don’t really see Redmayne or Cumberbatch upsetting Keaton – the academy wants Keaton to win.
Linklater will easily win director and the Best Picture race looks also sealed with Boyhood being the winner (although I hope for an upset by Birdman or Grand Budapest).
The screenplay categories will be exciting – original will probably be Grand Budapest or Birdman (I don’t see Boyhood winning here) and adapted (which should have gone to Gone Girl) is quite unpredictable. Whiplash would be the best choice, but the academy loves the Imitation Game and then the members also adore The Theory of Everything. I think Imitation Game could really be winning here.
I think many are underestimating Tyldum’s Best Director nod. That may be a sign of a turning tide. Now I’m afraid Cumerbatch might upset Keaton. If that happens, there’s your Best Picture winner.
I honestly have to say that i really want to see Julianne Moore receiving her much deserved Oscar! BUT not this year!!!!
In my Opinion, there is no any other Actress in this year who has a chance to beat the PHENOMENAL, OUTSTANDING Work from Rosamund Pike!
What we see in Still Alice is a, of course, great Performance from the great Julianne Moore. But we have seen it so many times that an Actress has played a women with a devastating diagnosis! So for me it is nothing special what she did!
Reese Witherspoon had a great year in Acting and in Producing! But also her play in “Wild” is also nothing special! She plays a Woman who is walking 2000 miles to find to herself.
What Felicity Jones does in “The Theory of Everything” we have seen and will see too many times! A Wife who supports her husband and put her dreams and wishes behind his!
And what the wonderful Marion Cotillard does in “Two Days, One Night” is superb. She also had another great Work this season in James Gray’s “The Immigrant”. With 2 sensational Performances in 1 year, she should win her more than deserving second Academy Award! Year after Year after her Portrait of French Chancon Singer Edith Piaf in “La vie en Rose” she gave us Performances, which were each time Award Contenders, in Movies like “Public Enemies”, “Nine”, “Inception”, “Midnight in Paris” and in “Rust and Bone”.
So Marion, Julianne, Reese and Felicity are all deserving Nominees – of course – but what Rosamund Pike does in “Gone Girl” is what i call Breakthrough Performance + Performance of the Year! Of course we have seen -also many times – a Psychopath on Screen but NEVER in this way!! NEVER! She defined the Role of a Psychopath, completly new! After watching her OUTSTANDING Work in “Gone Girl” i was speechless! I couldn’t stop thinking about her Performance for Days! She raised the bar so high this year, that it should be impossible for any other Actress to beat her on Oscar Night!
On Oscar Night, the Academy should reward the “Best” in each Categorie! So i guess if that is so, than we all knew who should win “Leading Actress”!
This is all very true, nicely expressed, thoughfully presented. I agree with every word of it. I’m grateful for the recognition these 3 directors got.
I would personally swap out Bennett Miller for Ava DuVernay, because I think Foxcatcher is Miller’s weakest movie and I think DuVernay’s SELMA is infused with poetry and powerful imagery that touched me in ways I was not prepared to feel.
There are some terrific nominees this year, as there are every year, and I agree that I think we’re seeing a gradual shift towards more Oscar voters accepting and honoring singular visionary work that would have had no chance in hell of being recognized 20 years ago.
Just because there’s one or two movies in every category that I’m very happy to see, does not mean I can’t be appalled at the other tiresome 60% of the nominees this year.
But ok, you’re right, I’ll try to talk more about the 40% of this year’s nominees that I genuinely admire and respect, IN ADDITION to bitching about the 60% of nominees this year that make me yawn and groan and puke.
If i would be an Academy Award Member, i would vote for:
Picture – “Whiplash”
Achievement in Directing – Richard Linklater “Boyhood” (Very Close – Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu “Birdman”)
Performance – Actor Leading Role – Michael Keaton “Birdman (Very Close – Benedict Cumberbatch “The Imitation Game”)
Performance – Actress Leading Role – Rosamund Pike “Gone Girl”
Performance – Actor Supporting Role – J, K, Simmons “Whiplash”
Performance – Actress Supporting Role – Patricia Arquette “Boyhood”
Now that I’ve had two days to calm down (I’m always furious for, like, 24 hours, for the omission of two or three personal favorites, this year: Force Majeure, Gyllenhaal and Russo, in particular), I, for one, think this years’ batch of nominees shows a great sign of diversity when it comes to what was once thought of as an aquired taste. People like Wes Anderson, Bennett Miller and Richard Linklater were all nominated for doing work that would have been considered pretty much obscure in the Academy’s eyes 20 years ago. Linklater and Anderson have been doing their own singular thing for 20 years now, not budging an inch. They are still as intelligent, committed and original. A bit more refined, yes, but basically the Academy has shown a great degree of appreciation for a broader artistic palette of expression than I would have thought possible.
I can understand that some people are frustrated by the lack of women in the script categories or people of color in the acting categories, but if anything this slate of directors, especially, proves that in an aesthetic sense the Academy has come a long way towards redeeming itself. That’s something to celebrate, after all.
As boring as it may seem, Boyhood winning BP is about as forward as the AMPAS has ever been. No slight against the snubs that should be well represented among the nominees, but I agree that TIG is no threat and we’ll at least end up with a filmmaker winning this year who deserves it for a very progressive body of work. If we can take any comfort this year it’s in that.
Imitation Game seems to have less enthusiasm than American Hustle last year, and we know American Hustle was shut out big time. I don’t see IG being competitive for Best Picture at all. I know we like to look for drama in these races, but like last year where 12YAS really wasn’t in any danger, Boyhood this year is also not in any danger. It will be a boring race.
DuVernay will be WELL represented in the future for her work. As will Affleck and Fincher, et al. It’s just never for what they deserve it for. See Julianne Moore.
That’s very gracious of Spike Lee to put things in context for Ava DuVernay. But being nominated for (or winning) an Oscar, and leaving a ”legacy of great art” are not necessarily mutually exclusive. ”Driving Miss Daisy” sure wouldn’t be one of my favorite Best Pictures, but there are other Oscar winners that have stood the test of time, including ”Casablanca,” ”All About Eve,” ”Lawrence of Arabia,” ”The Godfather” and ”Schindler’s List,” to name but a few. In any event, DuVernay already has made history as the first African-American woman to direct an Oscar-nominated Best Picture, and with ”Selma” as her calling card, you can bet that she’ll be taken much more seriously with her next movie. (Let’s also hope it’s accompanied by a much shrewder Oscar campaign.)
The Imitation Game doesn’t have a chance of winning BP, there’s no passion behind it. I think it’s quite like it goes home empty-handed.
I also think you’re underestimating Budapest. It can win Best Picture for certain, and I’d rank above everyone except Boyhood.
I think that Boyhood has this wrapped up for pic and director but then all bets are off now with the Academy. This is a weird year, if Budapest wins I won’t be upset, it’s a spectacular piece of cinema. As is Birdman. Linklater has been one of the great under appreciated filmmakers of the past 20 years so he definitely deserves accolades. I’m really hoping that the Brit films don’t sneak up. Not that they weren’t good films, but I guarantee no one will be speaking of TIG or TTOE in 20 years. This year, as many before, is easy to call; Boyhood, Linklater (the man wrote and directed DAZED AND CONFUSED!), Moore (finally), Keaton, Arquette (Yay!), Simmons, etc. There aren’t many surprises and at this point that’s fine. Spike Lee had a great response for Ava yesterday when he said that 25 years later it’s Do The Right Thing that is remembered and taught in schools and not Driving Miss Daisy. There is little doubt (outside of maybe Boyhood) that 25 or even 50 years from now that Selma will stand the test of time far more than say an American Sniper. As he said, it’s all about the resonance of the work in 25 years. Linklater and, especially, DuVernay will be in the conversation then. And that’s the legacy of great art, NOT nominations.
Hi everyone, just had to drop by and let it be known- I had a SERIOUS lunch with some older voters of the academy today, and got some VERY interesting information. Now be warned, this could influence you to change your predictions, so by all means DON’T DARE read what I have to say UNLESS you want to know the lowdown on who’s REALLY going to win the Oscars. Notice, I am typing using a lot of CAPS- which means it’s important!
When the salads came, I was just about to take a big bite when an older man suddenly said “Walked out of Birdman after 10 minutes. Dreadful, just dreadful.”
“But didn’t it lead the nominations?” I asked, solemnly as not to come across snooty.
“Who cares- it was all fixed. It won’t win a thing”. I won’t mention the name of this voter – let’s just say he Works there and it’s always been his Dream.
By the time the shrimp cocktails arrived, an elderly woman was upset the waitress hadn’t shown up to pour more wine.
“We should call her Gone Girl”, quipped the voter. “Just like that dumb movie no one voted for.” Everyone laughed- even me, though it was more polite chuckling.
When the main course arrived, I chimed in and asked who was voting for Boyhood. I was greeted with audible groans.
“Anyone who had a childhood that bland doesn’t deserve to hold a trophy in five weeks.”
“What about Patricia Arquette in Supporting Actress”, I squeaked.
“Patricia who?” Laughed the man next to me. “I’m not voting for that washed up hag. Keira Knightley- now that’s a hot piece of ass!” The men laughed, and the women looked down like school girls. It was weird.
When dessert finally was finished, we all got our coats.
“What hotel are you all staying at?” I asked.
“Forgot the name, but it sure is Grand.” The old man winked at me, and it dawned on me- The Grand Budapest Hotel is winning Best Picture!!!!
My bet for BP is Boyhood. The reasons have been listed above in favor of it and I do think the voters will go for the critical and awards wave and enjoy feeling the film (if their butts don’t get tired after 2hr 44min). Selma’s post-nomination, post-MLK day buzz will die down by mid-February, and Birdman and GBH may be regarded as quality films but too quirky and voters may figure that Birdman’s award for Keaton and a couple others, and GBH’s several technical awards (including score, I hope) will even things out. I don’t think even ‘safe’ films like Imitation Game or Theory will have enough momentum to better Boyhood.
I really think GRAND BUDAPEST takes Original Screenplay. BIRDMAN already has Actor and Cinematography walking in the door. Plus, I would hope that the writers’ branch would be savvy enough to know BIRDMAN’s script is a real weak spot.
“Gone Girl” was not THAT good. It was like an R-rated Law & Order episode. I thought the Nancy Grace look-a-like cheapened the movie. And except for the twist, it was clearly a take-off of the Scott/Lacey Peterson story. For God’s sake, get over it!
This article tries to drum up competition (in the BP race) where there’s none. Reminds me of 2012 election where media pundits called it too close to call when Obama had it in the bag all along (he won by 4 points in the end).
Boyhood makes one feel reflective, somber, gazing back at one’s life with bittersweet contemplation.
The word you’re looking for is boring.
After watching 7 out of the 8 nominees… haven’t seen yet “The Theory of Everything”….
1. Boyhood ***** A-
2. Grand Budapest Hotel **** 1/2 B+
3. Selma **** 1/2 B+
4. The Imitation Game **** B
5. Birdman *** 1/2 C+
6. Whiplash *** 1/2 C+
7. American Sniper 0 – F
And Boyhood is my #4 film of the year.
”Grand Budapest Hotel’ may be perfection of that technique, but it is still a tired gimmick.” Wes Anderson’s past movies have yielded either 2 Oscar nominations (”Fantastic Mr. Fox”) or 1 for screenwriting (”The Royal Tenenbaums,” ”Moonrise Kingdom”). Maybe his style is ”tired” to some, but not to the Academy. This is the first Anderson movie that the Academy has fully embraced: 11 Oscar nominations across the board. What’s more, it’s so rare for the Academy to recognize a comedy, especially such a wacky farce, with double-digit nominations. When’s the last time that happened?
”You can’t play that loose with the facts. … History matters.” Surely, the controversy hurt ”Selma,” but it was hardly the only fact-based movie that did the same: ”Foxcatcher,” ”The Imitation Game,” etc. But I guess nobody cared about John du Pont or Alan Turing. Has anyone heard from Mark (”I hate Bennett Miller”) Schultz about his reaction to the Oscar nominations? And did his rant help cost ”Foxcatcher” a Best Picture slot?
”This is the part of the season where we try to cook up excuses for … why there might be competition.” I agree. It’s a lull. The PGA’s not until Jan. 24, followed by the SAGs on Jan. 25. Everybody loves a horse race. Anything can still happen. Besides, the studios have spent too much money on their campaigns. And movie websites and pundits can’t exactly declare the race over, especially when there is $$$$ at stake from Oscar ads. 😉
I think the potential exists for an Imitation Game upset for two reasons-
1. Box office- it will likely be the second highest grossing film of all the BP nominees by the time of the awards ceremony.
2. The Weinstein Company versus IFC. One an absolute pro at Oscar campaigns, the other suddenly finding itself in a world it knows next to nothing about. Prior to this their biggest Oscar nomination came from Y Tu Mama Tambien.
This being said once a film has real momentum its hard to change things. If Boyhood say wins SAG, Bafta, ACE, PGA, and DGA that would be hard to overlook and I would probably change my mind.
Forgot to add. It has tons of BAFTA/Academy crossover support (11 noms). Thats quite something considering its an American film.
I see GBH as Boyhood’s main rival because of several reasons:
It has the important Directing, Writing, Editing, and a nifty SAG Ensemble nod.
It will probably win at least 2 awards and as many as 5-6 if the Academy goes big (picture, writing, prod. design, costumes, make-up, score).
It has made the most $$ (though, Sniper will change that, soon).
Boyhood only has 6 noms and could win as few as 3.
Birdman is missing Editing. Big deal.
GBH inhabits both comedy and drama, much like Birdman, but less polarizing.
The Imitation Game could definitely challenge. But Im not feeling it right now.
And I see GBH as having lots of #1s, not to mention a TON of 2s and 3s.
Having said all of this, Birdman is my favorite film of the year and Im pulling for it. Im just seeing a case for GBH 🙂
There’s just no way any film but Boyhood is winning BP. It’s not even close. Too many Academy members either love it, or love Linklater, or will feel they must recognize it for its “achievement”. GBH was great fun, but Wes Anderson has to get a new schtick — the perfect symmetrical framing, the slow zooms in on a symmetrical image, the slow pans left and right: his cinematic language has become a parody of itself. GBH may be the perfection of that technique, but it is still a tired gimmick. Time to show that he is capable of something else.
Marion may be great in 2 Days — haven’t seen it yet. But Moore absolutely deserves a career award, and I don’t have a problem with that, and by all accounts she is great in Still Alice, so it is not as if she is being given the award for an underserving performance. I’d have a problem with her getting a career award for a role that was nowhere near deserving of an Oscar, but that is not the case, even if she only gave the second, or the third, best performance of the year. I just can’t see Hollywood giving a second Best Actress Oscar to a foreign actress over one of the two or three most respected and hardworking actresses in films in the past 20 years.
Selma was undone because of its lies regarding LBJ. Many people are still alive from that time period to remember what happened and there’s so much documentation of said events. You can’t play that loose with the facts and demonize one of the few presidents who actually did something for civil rights and escape unscathed. History matters and it matters to Oscar voters as well. It’s a wonderful film and had it paid more attention to accuracy could have been a real contender.
I AGREE W/SEVERAL ON HERE, THAT “BOYHOOD’S” CHIEF RIVAL FOR BP *GOLD IS “GBH”
KEATON & MOORE ARE LOCKS TO “WALK DOWN-THE-AISLE!”
Whiplash has a weak screenplay? You know which movie has a weak screenplay? Gone Girl. Great story w/ bad dialogues by an mediocre author, NOT A GOOD SCREENWRITER Gillian Flynn. Also isn’t Gone Girl a novel to read on the beach? YAWN.
“Great storytelling beats great visuals”
Hey, Paul Hanlin, Jr. Did you hear that?
@PaddyMulholland
At least Crash had several precusor wins including SAG and ACE. Grand Hotel won in an age with different rules and fewer guilds.
Oh, right, I can rank them in order of preference too, actually. 🙂 I saw all of them before nomination morning, which has never happened to me before. My ranking:
1. Birdman – light 9.25/10
2. Selma – heavy 9
3. The Theory of Everything – 9
4. Boyhood – 9
5. Whiplash – heavy 8.75 (could easily go up to 9 on subsequent viewings)
6. The Grand Budapest Hotel – 8.75
7. The Imitation Game – heavy 8.5
8. American Sniper – very light 8 (I rarely go below 8 on any half-decent movie; American Sniper is my no.26 out of 27 this year, so far)
“how exactly do you see Imitation winning BP with no acting or script wins without Director? Even Crash had a script and editing win.”
Who says it can’t win screenplay? No, this is not the problem – it’s the ones I mentioned above.
“I feel like we’re in for several of these “but what if THIS happens…” kinds of articles in an effort to drum up some interest or debate in a race that’s all but over. Boyhood is almost certainly going to win Best Picture, Linklater almost surely Best Director and the four favourites for the acting awards are all varying degrees of locks (the least likely is Keaton, and even he is probably in the 85% range).”
Indeed…
“But Birdman is also a movie where its only source of depth can be found in its main character’s trajectory. Everyone else in the film is mostly a hollow apparition.
I disagree. The entire cast does an excellent job of adding depth to their characters, even if some of them have limited screentime. Hell, Naomi Watts is in the movie for less than ten minutes and almost steals the whole thing; that one scene with she and Riseborough was tremendous. The only character who comes off as a bit thin is Norton, but that’s by design as he’s supposed to be the sort of artificial person who’s always giving a performance.”
Well put, sir! Completely agree!…
“Which is why “Gravity” should have won BP IMO. It was the all around most impressive achievement of the year (or any year as of late).”
It was, however, also deeply flawed (characters, dialogue), and 12 Years a Slave, while not as much of a technical achievement, was a grand achievement in almost every other department (acting, directing, score, screenplay), and with no flaws to speak of – so, no, the winner was the right one. 🙂
“Don’t get me wrong “12 Years a Slave” is fantastic. I just find it strange when a movie wins more than twice the statues of BP and somehow isn’t BP.”
Just proves great acting and a fantastic screenplay are more important than great directing plus awesome 3D technology. Doesn’t sound so strange to me… sounds about right, actually! Great storytelling beats great visuals (to be simplistic, as, of course, Gravity is also great storytelling on some levels, if you can get past the flaws).
This is the part of the season where we all take a good hard look at the Best Picture slate and try to cook up excuses for how there might, possibly, maybe, hopefully, sort of, kind of, could potentially be a competition on our hands at all. So The Imitation Game will get a big Harvey push. So The Grand Budapest Hotel is riding real high atm. So Selma has the Argo-style snub narrative. But does any film realistically stand a chance at beating Boyhood?
We’ve had these conversations before, about No Country for Old Men in particular, a very similar narrative sprung up. Only with Brokeback Mountain, when Crash pulled up and eventually won, has it actually materialised. Fun to consider this shit for now, but I’m not buying any of it. I think it’s Boyhood all the way to the end.
@BIRDIENEST81
Don’t get me wrong “12 Years a Slave” is fantastic. I just find it strange when a movie wins more than twice the statues of BP and somehow isn’t BP.
On a brighter note: At least no movie can go 0 for 10 this year again! That has happened 3 times since 2002! Ridiculous.
“Birdman” is my favorite performance of Norton’s in over a decade.
@Richardskin
I think 12 YAS and gravity were both worthy to win Best Picture (with my heart going for the former), but yeah, Boyhood is a sure thing like the Seahawks.
Q Mark: I think Norton gives my favorite performance in the film. He is so natural in Birdman. It’s my favorite performance in the supporting actor category.
For those talking about “Selma” possibly winning BP. It won’t. I shudder at the idea of a film winning BP with even 3 awards. That usually only happens with an upset (“Crash”) or a egregious snub (BD for Affleck). “12 Years a Slave” was a strange exception because it just simply had little to no chance in other categories. Which is why “Gravity” should have won BP IMO. It was the all around most impressive achievement of the year (or any year as of late).
Long story short; if ANY movie wins only the BP trophy “Selma” or otherwise. It’s simply is not truly BP.
As a film professor I know said to me recently, Julianne Moore’s win is like Jessica Lange’s win for Blue Sky. Moore will win for a so-so film which she’s fine in, plus her competition isn’t that strong.
I feel like we’re in for several of these “but what if THIS happens…” kinds of articles in an effort to drum up some interest or debate in a race that’s all but over. Boyhood is almost certainly going to win Best Picture, Linklater almost surely Best Director and the four favourites for the acting awards are all varying degrees of locks (the least likely is Keaton, and even he is probably in the 85% range).
But Birdman is also a movie where its only source of depth can be found in its main character’s trajectory. Everyone else in the film is mostly a hollow apparition.
I disagree. The entire cast does an excellent job of adding depth to their characters, even if some of them have limited screentime. Hell, Naomi Watts is in the movie for less than ten minutes and almost steals the whole thing; that one scene with she and Riseborough was tremendous. The only character who comes off as a bit thin is Norton, but that’s by design as he’s supposed to be the sort of artificial person who’s always giving a performance.
I think Budapest Hotel will win at least four Oscars: original screenplay, score, production design and costumes. Eddie Redmayne could win if the Academy doesn’t follow its usual tendency not to award young male actors. British vote is going to help Eddie who I think will win the BAFTA. Imitation Game or Theory of Everything are going to win the BAFTA best picture, and one of them will win best British film unless Pride sneaks in. Or perhaps Budapest Hotel will 11 nominations will steal the BAFTA best picture.
@LCBASEBALL22
Only because of the Seahawks, though. And Boyhood still is like the Seahawks. Selma is like the Jets.
@LCBaseall22
Paramount also had Selma on their plate. I personally would have invested more in Selma.
Except the Patriots aren’t going to win the Super Bowl this year 😉
Fighting Boyhood is like fighting the Patriots in the Super Bowl or Hilary Clinton in the 2016 Democratic presidential nominee race.
Arquette is quintessential Supporting Actress; in every sense of the word supporting. She has also been kicking around for years and in lots of ways her role; albeit supporting is integral to the movie’s success and continuity. J.K Simmons is such a sturdy and admirable screen presence. His performances in Jason Reitman’s movies alone, have, for me, made me sit up and take notice of the guy. His work with Ellen Page in ‘Juno’ was wonderful. No longer will he be the ‘who’s that guy; i know his face’ guy! I’m yet to see ‘Still Alice’ but Julianne Moore has been feted for an Oscar for a dozen years since her double nom and near miss for ‘Far from heaven’. This woman works hard. The past 18 months; supporting turns in ‘Hunger Games’ ‘Don Jon’ ‘Non Stop’ (aptly titled for her ethic), ‘What Maisie Knew’ and now ‘Maps to the Stars’ and ‘Still Alice’. It may be a career win or it may be an amazing performance in and of itself. Good for her.
I think Stephen Holt proves that the swipe that Birdman takes at Theatre critics is absolutely correct, especially as he is ‘won.’
Daveinprogress. Great observation that Boyhood lacks a scandal or anything divisive that would suddenly cause everything to change course. Linklater is also very respected and seemingly a very genuine person (his speeches at the GG proved that). Tom Hooper had no trouble leapfrogging Fincher because Fincher doesn’t play well with others and the film wasn’t very likable in some respects. Hooper also had a slam dunk Best Actor win in his hip pocket to give his film the look of a winner.
Does anyone really think Tyldum is going to leapfrog Anderson and Inarritu before picking off Linklater? Is there a Keira Knightly surge to take out Arquette? Cumberbatch is going to take Best Actor? I just don’t see the path there.
The rest of the award shows may help in predicting the Lead Actor award; but i reckon the bulk of them are sewn up already. I don’t see anything derailing Boyhood; as there is nothing divisive or scandalous about it or its filmmaker to sway what looks like a bona fide embracing of this immense project of Linklater’s. There is a strong awards narrative for it; let alone its quality and inclusion of the ‘year’s best’. Julianne Moore needs to prepare a speech and slow down her jumble that although cute, was a bit of a mess at the GG’s. Arquette and Simmons should select the best clobber they can for the night – they are going to ascend the podium.
Selma may be terribly unlikely to win, but it is not as unlikely as some of the other nominees. In fact, thanks to post-“snub” word-of-mouth, late release, overall quality, and subject matter, it is better positioned than most, and will continue to gain the positive “feel” as the weeks lead up to the Oscars. I will go out there and say it is more likely to win the big prize than American Sniper, The Theory of Everything, Whiplash, and even The Grand Budapest Hotel. Still, none of that means anything, because “Boyhood” has this all wrapped up, and has had it all wrapped up since early autumn.
No reason to think anything will upset Boyhood at this point. Selma is a 100-1 shot.
I keep hearing the split scenario with Imitation/Boyhood, but unless the script wins or Cumberbatch leapfrogs Keaton AND Redmayne, how exactly do you see Imitation winning BP with no acting or script wins without Director? Even Crash had a script and editing win.
I don’t see Sniper winning without Cooper, the script, editing, and Eastwood snaking the DGA away.
Boyhood will benefit from winning director and supporting Actress. It wins editing and that’s all she wrote for Best Picture. Team Boyhood ought to focus some energy on Sandra Adair pronto.
And I still maintain that Nolan should have stuck with Warner for Intersteller. I know they handled the international piece but Paramount made some poor decisions controlling early screenings/buzz and all through the Oscar campaign. I believe it would be a Best Pic nominee if Warner was more behind it. Just look at steam they’ve built up for American Sniper with a mediocre Eastwood film…
Best Adapted Screenplay is quite the enigma in this year’s race. With ‘The Imitation Game’ and ‘Whiplash’ competing for this one, it could leave the back door open for ‘The Theory of Everything.’ This film has very similar trappings of ‘A Beautiful Mind’ – which won Best Adapted Screenplay back in 2002 (though that film was the frontrunner). I wouldn’t be surprised if ‘The Theory of Everything’ pulled off an upset here.
Emmanuel Leubezski looks to be in the driver’s seat for ‘Birdman’…for now. This can be a category that can be quite tricky. Personally, I’d look for Roger Deakins for ‘Unbroken’ to snatch this one. He’s been nominated so many times, the Academy might see fit to issue this as a make-up oscar for all his previous snubs. For the artistic categories, Best Production Design and Best Costume Design, I believe these are firmly in favor of ‘The Grand Budapest Hotel.’ Best Film Editing: This one is a doozy! War films tend to be sure-bets in this race. ‘American Sniper’ could win, but with ‘Boyhood’ spanning a 12-year period, using the same cast, and Richard Linklater’s seamless direction, don’t be surprised if ‘Boyhood’ wins this – though, most are saying it will be ‘Birdman.’
The fact that ‘Selma’ only got 2 nominations doesn’t really help its chances. It started strong, but has suffered some backlash in recent weeks. Could it win Best Picture? Possibly, but unlikely. If it did, that would be a truly historical moment, as no film has ever won Best Picture without winning at least one other major category and one or more other awards (usually for Writing and a tech award). Although, having the great-and-powerful (and incredibly influential) Oprah Whimfrey behind it certainly doesn’t hurt. This year’s Oscars are sure to be one full of surprises!
The Academy–every branch of it–did not go for Gone Girl. When a score as great as GG’s is snubbed, you get the feeling they LOATHED this film.
Pike is lucky to be in the mix, given this consensus. Her peers realized this was a career part. I don’t see her winning, though.
GG’s albatross is its many implausibilities. Every great thriller recognized by this organization has an airtight plot. GG does not. Far from it. It’s hugely entertaining and well crafted, but there are so many head-scratching moments (and in one case, wildly misguided casting) that take you out of the story.
The Imitation Game will take a well deserved Adapted Screenplay Oscar, probably its only Oscar of the night.
I will not be shocked if Selma upsets for Best Pic.
Well, I admit I would have more faith in Selma’s chances to pull that off is WB was behind it instead of Paramount, who is infamous for Dreamgirls…
I don’t think we’ll be seeing any surprises in Picture (Boyhood), Director (Linklater), Actress (Moore), and Supporting (Arquette and Simmons). Actor looks like it’s going to Keaton but feels like the only acting race that isn’t set in stone.
BIRDIENEST81 glad someone else knows the FACTS!
Zach, the thing is, the Jets actually could… Any Given Sunday, amirite?
I disagree completely that A) Whiplash took Gone Girl’s spot in Adapted (It was Inherent Vice. EVERYONE predicted Whiplash alongside Gone Girl, nobody predicted IV. One could even make a case that it was American Sniper that took Gone Girl out with its late surge), and B) that the Adapted field is “mostly weak”. Whiplash, Inherent Vice and The Imitation Game are all fine screenplays. 3 out of 5 means mostly strong.
“‘I also maintain, resolutely, that “Selma” can still win Best Picture (and over on Melrose, the people at Paramount feel the same way).'”
Y’know, when the 1-9 NY Jets play the 10-0 Patriots, those Jets players are telling everyone they think they can win, too.
Oops, I meant “trying to tell people”
@Edkargir
LOL. Thanks
@Richardskin
Amen! Amen! Amen! That’s what I’ve been trying people.
I want Boyhood and Hillary Clinton to win.
Best Picture upsets are the rarest. The last was Brokeback (homophobia). Before that, Saving Private Ryan (Harvey going door to door – literally – for Shakespeare). Before that, maybe Driving Miss Daisy over Born on the 4th of July, but they were kind of co-favorites, the only reason Daisy wasn’t heavily favored was the Beresford director omission. So 3 in the past 30+ years or so, with “reasons” for each. I don’t see any “reasons” not to vote for “Boyhood” other than the Selma snubs. With no other nominations (song doesn’t even count for goodness sake), its highly highly unlikely. The Academy is stubborn, and rarely caves to pressure.
BTW, for the record, if people start reviewing the history of Best Picture upsets thru the years, remember, Rocky was actually favored to win back in 1976 over the likes of Network, All the President’s Men and Taxi Driver (which had no chance without director & screenplay nominations). Rocky had the DGA and Globe and most nominations (tied with Network for the latter) back in an age when there were few precursors. The Academy followed suit then, and it follows suit now…again, unless there are “reasons” (which are never very good, are they…). It is rarely about what is truly the best, and that’s why the Oscars are taken way, way too seriously.
I am a massive Nolan fan and I liked “Interstellar” probably more than the average movie goer. But it is IMO Nolan’s 2nd worst auteur film to date. 2nd only to “DKR” and it’s fantastic plot holes. I like “DKR” because it’s a Batman movie and I loved Tom Hardy as Bane otherwise I thought it was “Meh”. The only reason I put “Interstellar” ahead of “DKR” is because it’s wholly original. I really wish his best film to date “The Prestige” would have come out after “TDK” because that may have been Nolan and Christian Bale’s first tickets to the big show.
In terms of quality I’d put the films in this order:
Birdman
American Sniper
Selma
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Boyhood
Haven’t seen:
Whiplash
The Theory of Everything
I have no clue what the Academy will do but there’s not enough time, save a scandal, to derail BOYHOOD probably. It’s been out front the whole time.
While I would be happy with a Selma win (it’s my favorite of the 4 nominated films that I’ve seen…though I hope the number is up to 6 by Monday),, there is no way that it will be awarded Best Picture by AMPAS. The reason? Oprah Winfrey is a producer and she would get an Oscar. I don’t see it happening. Her passion project Beloved was snubbed (and I thought she was great in that) and she was snubbed for her supporting performance in The Butler. I think Oprah is seen as too powerful and too successful to ever win an Oscar. Her best chance was when she was nominated for The Colr Purple and she was a virtual unknown.
Honestly, though, I will never understand the Directing snub for Ava DuVernay. She did a magnificent job.
Surely Feinnes not getting in for Actor rather than no Editing is a bigger pointer to Birdman’s chances over Budapest?
“Couldn’t the expanded best picture category have made room for David Fincher’s “Gone Girl,” which only landed a lone nomination for Rosamund Pike, a well-crafted crowd-pleaser that grossed $167 million? Or Christopher Nolan’s “Interstellar,” perhaps his best film yet, which prompted lots of sniffling at the New York premiere last year? “Unbroken” would have guaranteed Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie’s attendance, and it’s a B+ in my book (solid — if not great). “Guardians of the Galaxy” (which got a WGA adapted screenplay nom) and “The Hunger Games: Mockingjay — Part 1″ are nearly perfect works of mass entertainment. Even Disney’s “Into the Woods,” which received a Golden Globe nomination, could have helped popularize the mix of this year’s best picture contenders.”
AMEN
This is really troubling how ignored moviegoers input is…
But Harris might already be scrounging around for material, because the Academy has managed to nominate one of its least-commercial best picture slates ever: six indie films (“Boyhood,” “Foxcatcher,” “The Imitation Game,” “The Theory of Everything,” “Whiplash” and “The Grand Budapest Hotel”) and two studio features (“Selma” and “American Sniper”) that have yet to open in wide release. So far, the highest-grossing movie of the best-picture nominees is “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” at a modest $59 million domestically.
These titles don’t exactly come with immediate name recognition, and make up the lowest box office since 2009, when the Oscars expanded the category in an effort to include more popular films. In 2011, the nine best picture nominees boasted a combined gross of $519 million on the day of nominations, and that was considered weak. This year, that total is at $203.1 million, according to Box Office Mojo — or put another way, the eight best picture nominees have a combined audience that’s smaller than “The Lego Movie.”
STEVEN KANE
JANUARY 16, 2015
LC, does it matter if you’re white or not?
Just thought I’d get that in before someone said something racist…
So disappointed Jake Gylenhaal and Renee Russo weren’t nominated. Jake > Bradley. Renee > Meryl. So sick of seeing Meryl Streep’s name nominated every f*ckng year!!
FIRST : “the test of a great film is whether people will be talking about it in twenty years “.
I believe Boyhood, Grand Budapest Hotel and Birdman will still be remembered in 20 years (especially when you think about the resumes of those directors), not so sure about Selma. And for once, those three frontrunners (I don’t buy Imitation Game winning) are not biopics. What a change for once ! When was the last time that happened ? Richard Linklater and Wes Anderson are acclaimed directors at long last nominated for best directors. It was about time !!! Boyhood is a story about nothing in a way, not an epic tale of a hero who saved the world, fought a war, improved the lives of people. It’s a simple story about simple people beautifully told. It’s not just a gimmick, it’s a portrayal of what life is about, philosophical without being theoretical and with compelling characters. How many contemporary movies, set today have won ? Not that many (Annie Hall, Ordinary People, American Beauty to select a few recent -more or less obviously- ones). This rant against that movie winning best movie is quite sad. I am also disappointed not to see more appreciation for NIGHTCRAWLER or GONE GIRL but I am enjoying one of my favorite years at the Oscars (No Country vs There will be blood, or 2003 when I enjoyed most of the winners -except for Chicago related wins-).
SECOND : Already, the only name that bubbled up to the top of the news cycle yesterday was the first black woman to have a film come anywhere near the Oscar race, Ava DuVernay.”
Top of the news maybe (although those comments based on phantom statistics leave me puzzled whenever I hear one), but how is that meaningful about the quality of the work ? It is not because of grand filmaking, it’s about her not being nominated.
LC, does it matter if you’re white or not?
I’ll also raise my hand in support of this….
http://variety.com/2015/film/opinion/why-the-oscars-could-have-a-problem-attracting-young-viewers-1201406226/
“Because they shut out Gone Girl I hope Pike takes it.”
And this is a terrible excuse to award somebody. It’s not about the performance anymore? Also, you don’t think Inherent Vice winning adapted screenplay is justified? After seeing it this past weekend I can safely say it deserves the win. Even if Flynn had been nominated my vote would’ve changed from her to Anderson. The script is that damn good.
Al Sharpton needs to get the fuck over himself. Selma nearly missed everything. I, for one, am ecstatic it was nominated for best picture at all! Look at the victories, not the defeats.
BTW, I’m a white dude and I personally have yet to see Selma but I thought it looked fantastic from the trailer shown before Interstellar. Also I like playing Devil’s Advocate and seeing underdogs prevail (though not the Green Bay Packers this weekend against my hometeam lol)
Ryan, I just picked a random link, it’s been reported on at more credible sites as well.
@LCBASEBALL22
I mean, not exactly YOUR OWN cause, but generally speaking anybody’s cause.
@LCBASEBALL22
Having Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson advocating your cause is like having lawyer Gloria Allred as your attorney. It’ll backfire.
Grand Budapest Hotel is probably the only real possible upset to Boyhood. Grand Budapest Hotel does have a SAG Ensemble nomination, and if it wins that well that certainly helps.
LCBASEBALL22, I’m away from desk so I don’t have time to read the Daily News link. But I would not be surprised if the Daily News screaming “RACIST OSCARS!” in their stupid headline for their stupid readers does quite accurately reflect AL Sharpton’s actual tone.
Maybe we can stop letting the stupid New York Daily News frame the terms of our discussions here at Awards Daily in their typically inflammatory right wing terms? That would be nice, if we could stop using the dumbest newspaper on American to set the tone of our conversations here.
@LCBASEBALL22
I did not mean nominations, I meant selecting winners. They would have to protest oustide AMPAS headquarters to really influence.
One should never underestimate the sway of Harvey Weinstein’s campaign, but why hasn’t ”The Imitation Game” had a much better showing? It got shut out of the Independent Spirits for any nominations. It went 0 for 5 at the Golden Globes, and 0 for 6 at the Broadcast Film Critics Awards last night. I’ve yet to see a notable critics’ group name it Best Film. And until Tuesday at the DGA, Morten Tyldum had been largely M.I.A. at various awards. Benedict Cumberbatch has yet to win a major Best Actor prize, and at the Globes, finished a runnerup to Eddie Redmayne. I think its best shot at an Oscar is Adapted Screenplay, but there are some top pundits, like Pete Hammond at Deadline.com, who’ve insisted for months that it’s still taking Best Picture. What am I missing?
In the Best Costumes list it’s not The Imitation Game, but Inherent Vice.
Civil Rights leader Al Sharpton is making sure to draw those parallels…
“In the time of Staten Island and Ferguson, to have one of the most shutout Oscar nights in recent memory is something that is incongruous,” he said in an interview with the New York Daily News. “The only category we’re well represented is in the best picture nomination and it’s a movie about blacks being shut out of society. And now we’re shut out of Hollywood.”
Read more: http://www.bizpacreview.com/2015/01/16/al-sharpton-appalled-at-racist-oscar-nominations-calls-emergency-meeting-connects-it-to-ferguson-173021#ixzz3P1G0yHDx
that would be Icelandic “composers” (not composters). Although composter seems like a good word to use on certain occasions, like when a songwriter mimics someone else’s style.
Still, Desplat for GBH. Oscar voters, hear my plea.
BIRDIENEST81
JANUARY 16, 2015
@LCBASEBALL22
I’d say, there would have to be a massive protest outside of AMPAS headquarters to make them change their minds. And I mean Charlie Hebdo style protest.
Not change their minds so much, what’s done is done, the nominees have been announced….but the backlash could influence the final voting and after the protests and riots that have occurred in the wake of Ferguson racial issues are a very volatile thing right now in America…
How I feel about Boyhood’s frontrunner status is the same as how I feel about Hilary Clinton becoming president. I wish Selma would win, but I won’t trash Boyhood.
If the controversy means more people go out and see it, and some of those people are voters who say, “You know, this really is a great film.” Then it is conceivable that Selma might win. Another factor — awards fatigue. Throw another award Boyhood’s way, or do something different?
Eh, who am I kidding? Nothing’s touching Boyhood. Nothing shocking will happen.
@LCBASEBALL22
I’d say, there would have to be a massive protest outside of AMPAS headquarters to make them change their minds. And I mean Charlie Hebdo style protest.
Birdman didn’t get an editing nomination. The Grand Budapest Hotel did.
Wow, thanks!
Also, last film to win Best Picture with less than five nominations was Cavaclade (1932/33). And as I said before, there were fewer branches to deal with. So, Selma would have to pull in a Joe Namath style win to take top prize.
Okay, hear me out. The Selma snubs backlash is big. It’s everywhere. It’s all over the papers, it’s all over the Internet. I know I can’t draw this comparison seriously because Argo had such widespread support on nominations morning in everything but Best Director, but that was one of the few times I remember backlash like this. The other big similarity is that despite the backlash for certain nomination exclusions, both were nominated for Best Picture. Meaning people are going to put them number 1 to make up for it. Maybe I’m reading too much into and just being hopeful, but don’t underestimate what people will do when they are being called racist. They suddenly go overboard trying to prove the opposite is true.
Hell, Tapley still believes it can happen as well and points out the screener issue again…
“There is nuance to the “Selma” situation. I hate to dig down into the screener issue again, but with many of them arriving to the agencies of actors and directors on Dec. 19, with much of the industry beginning to shut down and tons of re-routing happening, I remain convinced that a great many still had not seen the film when they voted. I also maintain, resolutely, that “Selma” can still win Best Picture (and over on Melrose, the people at Paramount feel the same way). Phase two is a different ballgame.”
Read more at http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/jessica-chastain-speaks-on-diversity-in-the-wake-of-oscarssowhite#GYyGkmPpSzYh4Tf9.99
And yes, Desplat for GBH. Long overdue.
Grand Hotel only had a BP nomination—and it won. The race is Boyhood’s to lose, but I think “Selma” has a chance. I’m just not seeing anything else as a winner.
It would be fabulous is Desplat took original score for GBH. It’s listed here at #2 below Theory of Everything. I love me some Icelandic composters but the score for that film was gorgeous and…. rather expected. I remember listening to it and thinking, “gosh that’s pretty. Don’t I already have something like that on my Spotify film soundtrack playlist?” On re-viewing GBH the other night though (an opportunity that never fails to reveal even more about the film), I realized that the score is a critical dimension to the viewing experience of the film. Desplat’s score punctuates every scene and every character. Just like the film it is a true conglomeration of quirk, beauty and feeling.
That should have said’ “Grand Budapest” has a POSITIVE Bi-sexual central character that you can root for.’
Of course a groundswell of continued backlash and #OscarsSoWhite in social media might persuade the Academy to correct wrongdoings as well…
Theoretically, most of it is already sealed: Boyhood – Linklater – Keaton – Moore – Simmons – Arquette – Boyhood at Original – Imitation Game at Adapted – Boyhood ate Film Editing – How to train your Dragon 2 – “Glory” (Selma) – Birdman for Cinematography – Grand Budapest Hotel for Production Design and Make Up – Into the Woods at Costume – American Sniper in both sound – Interstellar at Score and Visual Effects – Documentary for Citizen Four – Ida for Foreign Film
i’ve got doubts if there’ll be a wave of support, so the big snub of the evening, “The Lego Movie”, wins its only nomination, but that would mean, “Selma”‘s song being “robbed” in the minds of plenty of people (shshshshsh… it wouldn’t be, if you read the Oscar rules for voting in Original Song… not many songs can be said to be almost a character and a key plot point, in a film, and “Everything is Awesome” certainly is one of the engines and plot devices of the film).
I’m also in doubt, the sense of urgency “to stand up against terrorism” after the Charlie Hebdo attacks, wouldn’t create a wave of support for “American Sniper”, and with the repetition of the trick that worked wonders with the mediocre “Argo”… to justify its Best Picture win, with the “horrendous” snub of Ben Affleck as director. Lol. Clint has 4 Oscars already, would the members “swallow”?
“I sure wish that Selma could do win Best Picture too, but its low nominations tally proves that the members included it out of guilt.”
Maybe, maybe not. The counter argument could be made that a Best Pic nomination despite little else might demonstrate strong support and remember that all members vote on Best Pic as opposed to just the individual branches voting in each area. Is it so far out of the realm of thinking that the film could be the favorite and greater than the sum of its parts, just not quite standing out above/among the rest in individual aspects?
Ah, this is where I should have posted it in the first place. 🙂 This is the most relevant thread, clearly. Here it is:
OK, finally, after this hectic 3-4 day period, with the DGA, Oscar nominations and BFCA awards, here’s my pre-guild wins evaluation of the 8 nominees’ chances to win BP at this point, based on all of the strongest stats I know (each movie’s statistical problems in brackets):
CLEAR FAVORITE (69% chances, so I guess about 1.45 odds, which, honestly, still seems a touch high to me)
1. Boyhood (only 4th in the ranking order by number of nominations at the Oscars, but we discussed last year how that’s not as much a factor under the preferential ballot or, indeed, in recent years, compared to, say, the 1990s or 1980s)
POSSIBLE SPOILERS (13%, 11%, 6%, I would estimate, probably a bit generously – see comment above)
2. The Grand Budapest Hotel (no SAG acting nomination – only Return of the King, since the famous Braveheart case, has won BP without any such nominations and, yes, even Slumdog Millionaire had one -, no acting nomination at the Oscars – only 4 movies have won without one since 1960 -, lost the BFCA for Best Picture to Boyhood – only 3/16 movies have won BP without it since 1999)
3. Birdman (no Best Editing nomination – no movie has won without it since 1980 -, lost the Golden Globe for Comedy to The Grand Budapest Hotel – only one out of 9 Oscar BP winners, since 1963, to come from this category at the Globes has not won said category in the past, Annie Hall -, lost the BFCA for Best Picture to Boyhood)
4. The Imitation Game (no Best Director nomination at the BAFTAs or Golden Globes – no movie has won without either of these since The Sting, in 1974, which I believe is, in fact, the only exception, since applicable -, lost the BFCA for Best Picture to Boyhood)
OUT OF CONTENTION (1% chances in total, at best)
5. The Theory of Everything (no Best Director or Best Editing nominations, no DGA nomination, no Golden Globe Best Director nomination etc.)
6. American Sniper (no Best Director nomination, no SAG Ensemble nomination – or any SAG nominations at all, no Golden Globe Best Drama nomination etc.)
7. Whiplash (no Best Director nomination, no DGA nomination, no SAG Ensemble nomination, no Golden Globe Best Drama nomination etc.)
8. Selma (no Best Director, Best Screenplay or Best Editing nominations, no major guild nominations, no BAFTA nominations etc.)
I”m with the above poster who said “Grand Budapest” could be the surprise winner.
“Bridman” did not get an Editing nomination, so that film’s out. And it isn’t as beloved by actors as one would think. Many feel, as do I, that it demeans the theater. It certainly demeans theater critics, of which I am also won. But “Budapest” got every single guild nomination. I’m sad that Ralph Fiennes didn’t get in instead of Meathead Bradley Cooper and Rabid Rabbit Steve Carrell. So we have TWO closeted gay characters, Alan Turing and Henry E.Dupont nominated. Great. What message is that sending to GLBTQ youth and to the community in general. Turing was castrated and Dupont was a physcopathic MURDERER for god’s sake.
But “Grand Budapest” which boasts a central BI-sexual character could be the suprise upset. The Anti-Boyhood vote, as you parsed it. Key is the Producer’s Guild Best Picture Award. That’s where everything turned around for “The King’s Speech.” But TKS had a rootable hero, “Imitation Game” does not. And at the BFCA and the GG is came up Zero for Zero.
And Morten TYLDUM~??!?!? Instead of DuVernay. THAT’S just, well, unforgiveable.
GBH FTW!
Oddly enough, in 1932 the film with the most nominations ‘Arrowsmith’ didn’t win any. Three of the four screenplay nomination got no other nominations. The Oscars were weird then. The ‘big winner’, so to speak, was The Champ with a whopping two Oscar wins.
@LCABASEBALL22
“:Oh, I didn’t read the article carefully; apparently Grand Hotel did it in 1932 with no other nominations, but then again how many categories were there then?”
Only 12 categories at the time. Also there were probably fewer branches at the time, and voting procedures were different I suspect.
@LCBASEBALL22
I sure wish that Selma could do win Best Picture too, but its low nominations tally proves that the members included it out of guilt.
Nevertheless, I think Boyhood and Birdman are deserving choices as well. Please no Imitation Game.
Oh, I didn’t read the article carefully; apparently Grand Hotel did it in 1932 with no other nominations, but then again how many categories were there then?
If your predictions come true, then it will be the third year in a row the Best Picture winner gets only three awards. I have a feeling Boyhood could take Editing, but the maybe the voters may be more impressed with Whiplash’s masterful editing work (akin to Captain Phillips).
Even as a guy who loves stats and would like to see trends hold up right now I’m rooting for the unbelievable to happen given the unfair treatment; I wanna see Selma, with nothing but a song nomination otherwise win Best Picture despite all odds. A true underdog win for the ages! and what I presume would set a new precedent…
I would like Whiplash to win Best Adapted Screenplay because 1) it’s absurd to even call it adapted in the first place and 2) uses music to convey what witty banter does in a standard-issue screenplay winner. In fact I’d like to see what the actual screenplay even looks like. The last ten minutes of the film are almost entirely music performances but express so much emotion.
Since Gone Girl can’t win, give it to one of the two movies that has something original about it. — Whiplash or Inherent Vice.
Birdman is the There Will Be Blood to Boyhood’s No Country. Birdman will win Best Actor, but all the precursors show Boyhood taking the big prize easily. (Sadly, neither Birdman nor Boyhood are nearly as good as TWBB or No Country.) The Imitation Game winning would be something like Crash, a big upset causing major uproar.
“Unfortunately, the Academy deemed Whiplash adapted, which knocked Gone Girl out of the race.” Why did Whiplash replace Gone Girl, rather than Wild or Inherent Vice?
Birdman didn’t get an editing nomination. The Grand Budapest Hotel did.
Let me also just say — your site is tremendous, Sasha.
On with the show: the only shock I feel may be coming is Bradley Cooper snagging the little gold man.
I’m inclined to think Grand Budapest is much more in the position to be the major spoiler than you are, Sasha. It has a good narrative–flew under the radar, little movie that could, lond-denied filmmaker, huge cast of beloved actors… I’m personally not a fan of Anderson’s aesthetic, but many adore him, the film is tied for the most nominations, AND it could feel like voting for the underdog after it has seemed all Boyhood and Birdman for a long time. I just have a hunch that the Oscars might want to switch it up a bit, and this could be the kind of movie that sweeps them away.
Sasha,
Birdman was not nominated for the coveted Editing. GBH was.