When the dust settles on Oscars 2015, when the trinkets and whistle blowers have been put to bed, few memories will remain of this year. One that will linger forever and always, though, is the love story between Hollywood-Elsewhere.com‘s Jeff Wells and Alejandro G. Inarritu’s Birdman. Jeff has been a one-man champion for the film where others were mere admirers from afar. Older women in the Academy won’t go for it, Jeff proclaimed, after he was told in Telluride that a fellow journalist’s wife didn’t like it. It’s too divisive to win, went the mantra. But Jeff was there. Day in and day out, for richer or poorer, in sickness and in health – not just championing the film but predicting it to win when no one else did:
The whole thing turned around for him last night when the industry embraced the film he’s been beating the drum for all season long. He’s knocked out its main rivals – like Selma. That was easy. Didn’t take much – just the insinuation that the film was damaging the legacy of its one white hero. Press picked that up. Lock and load. Next up, Boyhood. Okay so what can you say about a film that was made from nothing but heart, a good idea and 12 long years of dedicated, careful filmmaking, that dug deeply into the characters to reveal their vulnerabilities, fears, weaknesses and ultimately, strength – life is messy. Life is about the extraordinary in the ordinary. How to make that film seem … not as good a choice?
Call it a gimmick – which is funny considering Birdman could also be called a gimmick but who’s counting. None of these rumors started with Jeff but he went along with them because, well, they weren’t Birdman. Birdman – the film to rescue the mundane drudgery of Oscar season. Birdman, with that rat-a-tat-tat drum score, the magical realism, that insane boner on Edward Norton, that breathtaking performance by Michael Keaton – two women making out, Emma Stone sleeping with Edward Norton. Birdman makes you feel alive. Birdman makes you feel. And some movies you FEEL. Yet the pundits had abandoned it for Boyhood – why Boyhood? WHY? Why not Birdman!?
I can sympathize with Jeff – I was a Gone Girl girl. Nothing but Gone Girl. Gone Girl over all other things and if it had won the PGA last night I would be dancing like Kathy Bates in Misery when she finds out Misery is alive. It would have renewed my faith that yes, awards season is worth every nasty moment – that YES by god, my taste matters. YES people heard me! Yes my choice is their choice because if 6,000 people agree with me that makes me MATTER! But alas, my choice was kicked to the curb – one, twice, and now, three times. You lose, Sasha Stone. JEFF WELLS wins.
The kiss of death, it seems, for an Oscar contender is to be 1) a critics darling – everyone knows industry voters hate the critics and have no business telling them what a great film is (except when it’s The Artist or The Hurt Locker or No Country for Old Men). 2) to win the Golden Globe heading into the big guild votes (unless you’re name is Ben Affleck and you made a movie called Argo). Boyhood – the literal definition of the “little movie that could” suddenly becomes the lumbering frontrunner. Teams start to form and call themselves “anything but Boyhood.” People repeat the awards season mantra, “critics don’t vote for the Oscars” (except when it’s The Artist, The Hurt Locker or No Country for Old Men). Pundits crawl out of the woodwork declaring “I knew Boyhood could never win! It has no plot! It’s just a gimmick! Take out the 12 years thing and it’s just an ordinary movie.” Never mind the part where if you take out the continuous take of Birdman it’s really just a play. On stage.
Anyone who doesn’t see how ugly and twisted the Oscar race is must be on good meds or either just doesn’t take any of it seriously enough. You can’t care. The trick is NOT minding.
Kris Tapley believes the problem is putting Boyhood in the frontrunner’s spot to begin with – and in fact, he and Scott Feinberg and Dave Karger and Pete Hammond had not been on the Boyhood train. They had Unbroken out front and Interstellar at one point — Boyhood, they sensed, wasn’t an “Oscar movie.” Yet Boyhood kept winning. Now people will say “Oh well, that’s just the critics.” But there was no way to tell whether you were dealing with a Social Network situation (lord help us) or The Artist – where it didn’t matter what anyone said or how much money the movie made “they” were going to vote for it.
But no one gets to take credit for Birdman’s soaring to great heights except Jeff Wells. He’s been a devoted advocate from the beginning, come hell or high water, no matter what. Team Birdman IS Jeff Wells. At last his passionate advocacy and predicting has come together where no other pundit really saw it coming.
Look at this Guru’s chart from last week:
A few of us had Birdman in the #2 slot but no one had it to win. Over at Gold Derby before last night and even now no one has Birdman to win. In fact, I don’t think I can find a single pundit outside of Jeff Wells who WAS predicting it. It all sort of reminds me of 2005 when Jeff Wells was one of the few predicting Crash to win.
A love story like this one is worth paying attention to because it happens so rarely for us pundits. There is nothing like having the movie you love actually win against all odds. Birdman was deemed “too divisive” early on and yet I kept hearing people say how much they loved it, people I knew in “real life” not in the awards scene. I myself find it to be a very good film but after three viewings the only thing I take away from it is Michael Keaton’s performance> The rest feels like a stage play to me, and not a film I can revisit to find pockets of brilliance in it, not like Boyhood, not like Inherent Vice, not like Gone Girl. That’s just a matter of taste.
The one thing we all forgot and it’s worth mentioning for all time? The industry likes movies about the industry. What does Birdman say? It condemns critics, it laments the old world before super hero movies took over, it depicts a man who is aging out of the modern era of entertainment, a man who rejects viral videos and Twitter. It is about Hollywood clinging to its past while acknowledging it must move forward into its awful future. So many watched Birdman and forgot it was about the industry but the industry likes to look at itself in the mirror. Not the David Cronenberg or Robert Altman mirror but the mirror that strokes it gently, flatters it, takes the piss out of it in a humorous inside joke kind of way to the tune of:
Argo
The Artist
Shakespeare in Love
Chicago
Birdman settles nicely into that legacy and captures Hollywood at a moment where it doesn’t want to go forward and can’t go backwards. That frustrated place between what must be and what once was.
So let’s all raise our glasses and toast Jeff Wells for a job well done and a season won. Sure, we can expect lots more bullying posts about how everyone else got it wrong but he — he was right. He will rub our noses in it and ram it down our throats until we choke on it.
When the dust settles, when the new year commences, the awards will have been won. The decisions final. Time will sort out the rest. Most of the time Oscar season gets it way wrong. I predict this will be one of those years. We’ll know soon enough – well, not for another ten years anyway.
And the best part of all? We get to turn around and start all over again in a few months.
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And, no, there are NOT always extenuating circumstances. Argo didn’t really have them (no reason not to nominate Affleck for director) – yet it won, fair and square, no BD nom. And it WAS the favorite, statistically speaking, before the ceremony. Not a big one, but the favorite. Same goes for Titanic. When you look at the whole picture, stats-wise, one snub is just one piece of evidence. And THIS snub (Birdman for editing) is a very, very unconvincing piece of evidence, for the reasons I’ve already given.
“I give it its appropriate significance.”
See, that’s the thing, I don’t think you do… You still seem to think the PGA win is less important than the editing snub, even though the numbers (of people nominating for editing vs. people voting for the PGA), the specific circumstances (Birdman’s non-traditional editing, which might have never even been considered for a nomination) and the percentages (100% is 100%, even from just 5 years, and the editing nomination stat has an under 90% record, whether you only consider the preferential ballot years – 1934-1945 and 2009-2013 -, in which case there are the two exceptions, 1935 and 1938, or the whole 80 years of this award’s existence, in which case there are 9 exceptions). I think you can’t ignore a 100% stat (that also has a very clear logical explanation – the use of the preferential system by both the Oscars and the PGA) in favor of a less-than-90% stat, not by default, even considering the, as yet, small sample size. It involves a decision. I decide to go with the PGA stat, for the reasons stated above, yet you choose to ignore those same reasons. Now, you could get the outcome right, sure, but you’re definitely NOT right in ignoring the details. And you’re not right to dismiss Birdman as a possible front-runner at this point just because of the editing stat. It’s not the whole picture, and it’s inflexible, because there are the extenuating circumstances.
“And I don’t understand the Brokeback and Crash question? That example should highlight the power of the editing nomination, no?”
I was just curious if you agreed with me. I know most people think Brokeback was the favorite, pre-Oscars. I don’t.
Of course, the situation isn’t the same, because Birdman also has the PGA win (and Boyhood doesn’t yet have the DGA win), and because of the preferential ballot switch having happened in the meantime. It was more or less an off-topic question. 🙂
That’s the key to this race… Given the circumstances (Birdman’s unconventional editing, PGA’s record since the switch to preferential), I believe it’s the PGA+SAG wins, and I believe that’s statistically justifiable, because you just can’t ignore a 100% record from a 6000+ voting group (the editing branch is much smaller – and a much smaller sample size should result in less reliability). But, again, I could be wrong. I don’t mind telling you I’ll be thinking long and hard about this in the weeks to come, comparing stats, trying to assign the right weights… this is just my initial reaction (that Birdman should be ahead, though, of course, not by much).
I’m wondering what’s more unprecedented, a movie winning Best Picture after losing the PGA and SAG Ensemble awards or a movie winning Best Picture without the Film Editing Oscar nomination? I’m tempted to think it’s the latter, but I can’t remember for sure (and don’t really want to take the time to cross-check IMDB, sorry). It’s something that I’ve kept coming back to in the last few days: the lack of recognition in that one “Oscar predictor” category for Birdman seems rather telling. I just can’t say whether that means it’s a “breaking the historical trend” year, similar to the splits that occurred last year, or not.
“This is deja vu. I had this argument with the Gravity supporters last year.”
Yeah, me too. 🙂
“I respect your rationale, but I think that a sound editor watch movies the same way as the rest of us.. I would say that acting, writing and directing are more important to them, just like the rest of us.”
OK then – what’s the argument for the sound editor being more likely to vote for Boyhood than for Birdman, then? The BFCA and Globes? They have a slightly worse record than the PGA alone when it comes to predicting BP, and a MUCH worse record than the combination of PGA and SAG Ensemble.
And how is Boyhood superior to Birdman in those other departments (writing, acting, directing)? Even precursor-wise. It gets directing, I guess (which is the smallest of those 3 branches, by the way, and I think by far), but loses both acting (Birdman just won SAG Ensemble – as well as other ensemble awards before it -, and has 3 acting nominees to Boyhood’s two) and writing (Birdman is the favorite for screenplay, also based on precursors). No evidence to suggest any of those are won/lost by big margins… so why is Boyhood ahead when combining these 3?
“Apathetic situations, a voter like or dislike 2 films equally, are very rare, especially in a field of 8 choices. They wouldn’t make a difference.”
I know I have a tough time picking among the movies just below my favorites each year… But, again, even if “they” don’t, the evidence still points more to Birdman than Boyhood, because Birdman won the PGA, with a preferential ballot, which is clear proof that it’s either less divisive or more liked (take your pick) within the industry than Boyhood.
I’m not saying it’s 100% clear, I’m only saying Birdman, based on this and other things, should be slightly ahead right now. Less than 10% ahead, for sure. Possibly a lot less. But if you just won’t accept the PGA as a strong precursor, in spite of its record, and prefer to go with the by far less-successful predictors, the BFCA and Globes, then it’s clear that it’s hard for me to convince you of anything. 🙂 We’ll just have to agree to disagree, which was always the most likely outcome anyway…
Claudiu,
Apathetic situations, a voter like or dislike 2 films equally, are very rare, especially in a field of 8 choices. They wouldn’t make a difference.
I respect your rationale, but I think that a sound editor watch movies the same way as the rest of us.. I would say that acting, writing and directing are more important to them, just like the rest of us.
This is deja vu. I had this argument with the Gravity supporters last year.
I would have said Sasha was championing GONE GIRL. Predicting? No. But she was pulling for it, which is what I always thought championing meant.
Interesting apology!
I know for some folk this whole palava is a game; a sport and people seem to think that these guilds are there for our pleasure and to keep us amused and to keep tension in ‘the race’. They are answerable to no-one other than themselves, and sometimes they don’t even possess that verity. It is more intriguing to have a real battle so that the big night is not pre-ordained; but they don’t (as a whole group, anyway) stand in line and say; let’s so exactly what the next lot are doing; or do an about face just to be contraire. They like what they like – the narratives for winners is more often than not, not about the movie or its performances or its box office. It’s so hard to project onto 6000 people and predict what is their miss or mister right now. I look at Chiwetel Ejiofor’s astounding and heartbreaking performance in 12years, and think – this is one for the ages, but look who took the prize! As long as YOU love your films and filmmakers, and performances – celebrate those; but don’t expect these pompous guilds to ever get it right. If they do it’s black magic!
Sasha, what i love about your writing is that you are not afraid to air dirty laundry, and to do it in an empowered way. I don’t know if that makes sense; but you are right in the middle of the mess. and yet you are able to momentarily step out and look at it all for what it is. That is a great ability as a writer, as a blogger, as a prognosticator, but more importantly as a human being.
What put 12 Years a Slave ahead of Gravity last year was that it had a clear advantage in the writing and acting branches – the much larger ones – (which we knew because of the major precursor snubs for Gravity: SAG, WGA, Oscar screenplay/acting), so Gravity’s (probable) superiority in the technical branches just wasn’t going to be enough. But Boyhood doesn’t have such a counter-advantage this year, as Birdman has been winning the (major) screenplay awards so far, and it’s, obviously, likely to do better, or at least equally well, with the actors. The “branches count” simply does not ever turn out in Boyhood’s favor, no matter how you put it. UNLESS the movie is clearly the more beloved of the two. And, again, after last night, that simply does not seem to be the case at all…
“The branches that I can see have that kind of thinking/feeling are the writers and directors (who probably feel that their craft is the most important aspect of a movie), not the sound editors or so on.”
I know, and that’s a good argument, which I myself made last year in favor of 12 Years a Slave’s chances. But what I’m saying is that, based on what has happened so far, Boyhood and Birdman actually ARE probably liked about equally within the Academy (certainly there’s no actual precursor evidence yet that Boyhood is the more liked of the two there – the DGA could provide a bit of one, but we’re not there yet, Linklater hasn’t won that one yet -, see the King’s Speech year). Which makes my argument relevant (see below), and I’m saying in a close race that little advantage in the tech branches (the votes of the people who like both about the same, but opt for Birdman due to their admiration of the craft) could be decisive.
“I can also see that maybe in an apathetic situation where they like or dislike a film *equally*, then they probably would pick the one that are more technically impressive. But short of that they will more likely vote for the movie that they like more *overall*.”
But that’s my point, though. We more or less know now, given the PGA result, that the race is, at worst for Birdman, a close one. So, in the Academy, it’s likely that support IS split between it and Boyhood, which could mean two things: some like Boyhood, some like Birdman, few like both equally, and whichever of the two is the least divisive wins (in which case, going with the evidence we have right now, Birdman is the more likely to be more liked – across all categories, not just the techs -, because it just won the only award given by a group with about the same number of voters as the Academy and, more importantly, using the preferential system, and the only one so far with an overlap) OR they are both (again, at worst for Birdman) liked about the same, in which case we have the apathetic situation you speak of – since they can’t decide, the tech branches are, given their field (for lack of better evidence) more likely to go with Birdman, not Boyhood. Of course, they might not. But why wouldn’t they? All other things being equal (which, as far as we know, based on the evidence, they are), why WOULDN’T you vote for the movie that showcases your own craft more than the other one?
The academy doesn’t vote for selma because they did the whole black thing last year. Now the PGA goes to Birdman, presumably because they did the whole 12 years thing last year!
Pathetic really.
As for Gone Girl, believe it or not you were championing the wrong movie this year for your own PERSONAL REASONS, suck it up. That’s why Jeff Wells got it right and you couldn’t.
I like you, murtaza, but wow, this remark was so out of line. You don’t seriously think Sasha (or really anyone) has ever “championed” Gone Girl for BP in the same sense as what Wells has been doing for Birdman.
Sasha loved Gone Girl as a personal favorite, as did many of us, but having a personal favorite is miles different from talking about a movie for “personal reasons.” Surely you see that.
Sometimes the only thing that makes the dreary Oscar race bearable is when we can back away from the golden trophy and take a broader look at all the movies we love but for one reason or another are not Oscar fodder. Would you honestly want Sasha or any of us to stop doing that?
You owe Sasha an apology for that crude “Suck it up” jab. I’m asking you to do that, to help restore your good standing as a friend here at AD. You can use this invitation to apologize like the reasonable gentleman I know you to be — or you can dig yourself deeper into this fumble. This is not like you. Your never stoop to mean-spirited digs like this. So I really hope you make the right choice, look at this strange poisonous thing you’ve said, and please retract it.
“But what I’m saying is that, given their fields of expertise, it’s far more likely for a majority of them to come away from Birdman more impressed than from Boyhood, because they’ll appreciate the craft.”
And I still disagree with that assumption, however one rephrases it. The branches that I can see have that kind of thinking/feeling are the writers and directors (who probably feel that their craft is the most important aspect of a movie), not the sound editors or so on. I can also see that maybe in an apathetic situation where they like or dislike a film *equally*, then they probably would pick the one that are more technically impressive. But short of that they will more likely vote for the movie that they like more *overall*.
“Sasha has always championed one film and one film only for Best Picture and Best Director for the past many months. That film is Boyhood. And anyone here with a brain knows it.
So not only was this comment insulting, it was irrelevant to the point of boorish absurdity.”
Yup.
As for Gone Girl, believe it or not you were championing the wrong movie this year for your own PERSONAL REASONS, suck it up.
I’d like to add, anyone who thinks Sasha was championing Gone Girl as a frontrunner for Best Picture or Best Director this year needs a tutor in remedial reading.
Sasha has always championed one film and one film only for Best Picture and Best Director for the past many months. That film is Boyhood. And anyone here with a brain knows it.
So not only was this comment insulting, it was irrelevant to the point of boorish absurdity.
“I rarely want to tell a reader to go fuck themselves but my friend you’ve earned it. Do not presume to tell me what I champion and why – you have absolutely no clue.”
You’re right, Sasha, that comment was way annoying, and also inaccurate – winners aren’t the only ones worth championing. Plenty of great movies have no shot at anything, which doesn’t mean you shouldn’t promote them anyway.
“I do not think Birdman is by any stretch the best film of this year. Not even close.”
You’re making me very curious – what ratings (out of 5, or 10, whichever you prefer, and you can use .5 or .25/.75, or A-/A+, anything, really) would you give Boyhood, Gone Girl, Selma, Inherent Vice and Birdman? I know you probably won’t answer. Maybe you don’t want to rank/rate them – that seems likely (also, it’s possible you stop reading the comments after the first few, I don’t know). Maybe art shouldn’t be ranked – but then why are we so interested in awards season? Anyway, I hope you do, ’cause it’d be fun to know. I’m happy to reveal mine: Birdman 9.25/10, Selma 9+, Boyhood 9 (close to 9+), Gone Girl 9-, and I’ve still not seen Inherent Vice. None of them (except for Birdman, which is very close) would be in my top 5 for 2013.
“I’m not sure it would be a feat of intuition, though. Jeff is notorious for listing his personal favorite as the #1 movie most likely to win BP. Usually he’s wrong, such as when he had Silver Linings Playbook at the top in 2012. If he “gets it right” this year, I don’t see it as a feat of intuition so much as a feat of dumb luck that his personal favorite just happens to coincide with the Academy’s collective favorite.”
Oh, OK. 🙂 Fair enough – I didn’t know that. You’re probably right, then.
“This theory makes it sound like craft people are robots and can only react to a movie that is well-made in the specific craft that they practice.”
We had this discussion last year, too. 🙂 I’m not saying they will ALL place Birdman in front of Boyhood on their ballots, of course. But what I’m saying is that, given their fields of expertise, it’s far more likely for a majority of them to come away from Birdman more impressed than from Boyhood, because they’ll appreciate the craft. Both are great movies, it’s not like Birdman is some dud that is impossible to like/love, and Boyhood is impossible to dislike. And the PGA result actually sort of proves that it’s at least close. So any advantage Birdman could (and is likely to) get from the technical branches could well significantly impact the final tally for Best Picture. Last year, when we did the “branches count”, we came out with 12 Years a Slave slightly in front, which proved to be a very accurate representation of the situation (close, the PGA tie proving that, but ultimately 12 Years takes it).
“PGA could end up mis-predicting all 3 Oscars for which it has its own categories. We know for sure the PGA picks for Documentary and Animated Film won’t be winning Oscars. Feature Film might just be strike three.”
:)) You’re right. Pretty funny!…
“Some recognition of uncertainty would be much appreciated.”
Well, you can’t accuse me of not recognizing it (I know you didn’t mean me, most likely – just saying). 🙂 I’ve said repeatedly that this is probably going to be closer than even last year (because of the editing snub and the Globe/BFCA defeats). Which isn’t to say Birdman isn’t in front right now, as guilds trump almost anything. But, again, if it loses ANY of the other two, we’ve got a race, there’s simply no question.
I was thinking: since the PGA is the only one that uses the preferential ballot, it could, theoretically, happen that Boyhood win everywhere else (even SAG, maybe), but Birdman win the Oscar. It’s still unlikely, but it doesn’t seem impossible.
Birdman hasn’t won Best Picture yet. It hasn’t even won Best Actor yet. Jeffrey Wells is just a chubby fantasist.
PGA could end up mis-predicting all 3 Oscars for which it has its own categories. We know for sure the PGA picks for Documentary and Animated Film won’t be winning Oscars. Feature Film might just be strike three.
A broken clock is right two times a day.
As for Gone Girl, believe it or not you were championing the wrong movie this year for your own PERSONAL REASONS, suck it up. That’s why Jeff Wells got it right and you couldn’t.
I rarely want to tell a reader to go fuck themselves but my friend you’ve earned it. Do not presume to tell me what I champion and why – you have absolutely no clue. I am not in the business of “getting it right.” I never have been. I don’t look at the race that way. I do not think Birdman is by any stretch the best film of this year. Not even close. I would rather not blog at all than compromise what I do think, which is my own opinion, which I own and can’t be sold nor bought. The last thing I am or want to be is someone who does nothing but hump the leg of the consensus during awards season. Nothing would sicken me more. So you can take your smug comments elsewhere. Really, I mean that because the next time I see such a stupid thing written about me and what I think I will delete it.
Alright, Ryan.
Time for you two, to both quit it. Take it behind closed doors with maybe Sasha as mediator.
The last thing I ever expected to see here was a love letter to Jeff Wells
If I got a “love letter” like this from anyone, I would not be making a date to get a blowjob, that’s for sure. I would know cuddling was off the menu too.
Geez, folks are awfully quick to put a fork in it, eh? The race is far from over. We’ve got SAG tonight (where a Boyhood win would be a surprise given the small, half-amateur cast, but you never know) and DGA (where anything other than Boyhood would be a surprise).
Folks are so intent on being one of the first to call the race. Some recognition of uncertainty would be much appreciated.
But no one gets to take credit for Birdman’s soaring to great heights except Jeff Wells.
If I had to write that line using most of the same words, I might have said, “But no one gets to take credit for seeing Birdman’s potential except Jeff Wells.”
From my personal perspective, Jeff Wells had fuck-all to do with Birdman soaring to great heights. Whether Birdman soars or sinks or spirals into pointlessness is entirely to Innaritu’s credit or blame.
If Jeff Wells had never been born, Birdman would still have won the very same things it’s won (which is once or twice) — and lost all times it lost (which is dozens).
Jeff Wells didn’t make Birdman what it is. He gets credit for liking it and for thinking other people would like it. He gets no credit for Birdman soaring and he gets no credit for it winning a damned thing.
If Wells doesn’t know that, then he’s more delusional than Birdman himself.
Claudiu,
I listened to that podcast too. I normally like Tariq, especially when he makes quirky choices. But I just simply do not buy his “Boyhood got the least nominations and not supported by technical people therefore, it can’t be a frontrunner…”
This theory makes it sound like craft people are robots and can only react to a movie that is well-made in the specific craft that they practice. I know that if a movie is badly edited, an editor might not think it’s a good movie. Movies like Boyhood are not necessarily “bad” technically. The reason it’s not getting nominated in, say, best costume, because it’s not that kind of movie. But I doubt that the Ann Roths of the world is going to not connect with that movie for that very reason.
At the HR director’s roundtable, Chris Nolan (the most technically savvy director of them all) specifically pointed Linklater out and profusely complimented him for his achievement in Boyhood.
Everyone watches the film pretty much the same way, with their heart, and that defies all the crafts that they belong to.
Sasha
Thanks for a good read throughout.
With this very thread, it feels like reading a blog more than usual; and that, for a change, is quite a treat.
Yes, it’s true that Wells, for better or worse, has remained loyal to “HE’s own” Birdman from day one. Kudos to him.
(Currently, Wells is probably still busy covering the Sundance, trying to score as many films as possible on daily basis even though occasionally it could possibly mean [neutrally speaking] walking out on the films with which one didn’t feel connected, after the first fifteen minutes. At least, it seems WiFi has been working well for him — . . . so far.)
Despite the feeling of Wells being somewhat *mocked here by the author with a faint tinge of amicable sarcasm [*more like a friendly tease], the bottom line is that it also feels like you guys [Sasha . . . Jeff . . .] are still on good terms. Which, if so, is great.
Because it would be nice to hear more of the Poker podcast from both of you, too.
Next stop: SAG.
i live in england so i am only just starting to see the films that have been the topic of debate in america for the past few months. films i loved? intersellar and a most violent year. most underwhelmed? birdman. and michael keaton, nothing against him but he was barely in the movie and barely did anything. edward norton is the only person in that film that lived up to its billing. of the films nominated grand budapest seems the most worthy.
“If Wells pulls this one off, in the end, it’ll be some feat of intuition, that’s for sure…”
I’m not sure it would be a feat of intuition, though. Jeff is notorious for listing his personal favorite as the #1 movie most likely to win BP. Usually he’s wrong, such as when he had Silver Linings Playbook at the top in 2012. If he “gets it right” this year, I don’t see it as a feat of intuition so much as a feat of dumb luck that his personal favorite just happens to coincide with the Academy’s collective favorite.
“For the Oscar win, I still believe that BOYHOOD has the great appeal across the various different branches. ”
I don’t know about that… I was listening to a Gold Derby podcast in which Tariq Khan was arguing that the (many) tech branches might not love Boyhood that much – it makes sense to me. Just like I had to agree that that was likely true and in Gravity’s favor last year (but, ultimately, as I had estimated, not enough), others will probably have to agree with me this year that Birdman has the advantage here.
The last thing I ever expected to see here was a love letter to Jeff Wells from Sasha. But why not? They have a lot in common. Stand alone independent Oscar websites. Only people who do that or TRY to do that, understand how difficult it really is. And they are both excellent writers who found themselves on the Internet. I think it’s great! Bravas to Sasha and Bravos to Jeff!
“Never mind the part where if you take out the continuous take of Birdman it’s really just a play. On stage.”
But it’a really interesting and fascinating play. Plus, you’d have to also take out the effects and cinematography, which also happen to be great AND serve the story. With Boyhood you don’t have to take out as much to make it just a movie (albeit a very, very good movie, which Birdman also still is, cinematic elements removed). What I’m saying is, of the two, Birdman has more qualities and is just as interesting and relevant, if not more so.
“A few of us had Birdman in the #2 slot but no one had it to win. Over at Gold Derby before last night and even now no one has Birdman to win. In fact, I don’t think I can find a single pundit outside of Jeff Wells who WAS predicting it. It all sort of reminds me of 2005 when Jeff Wells was one of the few predicting Crash to win.”
Well, statistically (which is what really matters), Birdman simply was not the favorite, and possibly still isn’t (it’s hard to say anything definitive mid-guilds – easier to do so when you know the results of all three, or none). If Wells pulls this one off, in the end, it’ll be some feat of intuition, that’s for sure…
“A love story like this one is worth paying attention to because it happens so rarely for we pundits. There is nothing like having the movie you love actually win against all odds.”
Happened for you (well, less so, because you also had The Wolf of Wall Street) and me (granted, I’m not a pundit) last year… 🙂
“That’s just a matter of taste.”
Thank you for saying that! I’m glad you’re not going to just become a Birdman hater :). Or not yet, at least. I won’t lie, I was worried about that a little bit…
“Jeff might just have won a battle, but he hasn’t won the war.”
Agreed.
“And if it weren’t for the existence of Boyhood, Birdman would have taken the spot as the year’s critics’ darling. It ranks behind Boyhood and Boyhood only in the critics #1 lists.”
Exactly.
“I still strongly disagree about the notion of Birdman as a “movie you feel”. As Wells puts it, Birdman has the wow factor, but there’s nothing to “feel” in it that should lead it to the Best Picture gold.”
Agreed.
“Anyway, he has a lot of points that I agree with (maybe because we share the love for Birdman) but he makes them in a way I don’t like. I don’t know if he’s bragging about his love for Birdman or he’s just too passionate.”
Yeah, he is a bit douchy, no doubt about it. That’s not Birdman’s fault, though… 🙂
“Anyway, the race is far from over. Boyhood is certainly on shakier ground now but it’s still the clear frontrunner.”
Maybe… but not really, not until it wins the DGA – and/or SAG, who knows?!
Like Jeff, BIRDMAN is my personal favorite of the films nominated (my favorite film of the year, IDA, like most years doesn’t even get nominated).
Still, the PGA is an insular bunch. Even though Inarritu isn’t an insider, the showbiz angle of BIRDMAN was probably more appealing than Linklater’s Austin indies with BOYHOOD. BIRDMAN still feels like a Hollywood story, more so than a 12 year docudrama.
For the Oscar win, I still believe that BOYHOOD has the great appeal across the various different branches. But, if BIRDMAN sweeps SAG, all bets are off.
I still strongly disagree about the notion of Birdman as a “movie you feel”. As Wells puts it, Birdman has the wow factor, but there’s nothing to “feel” in it that should lead it to the Best Picture gold. Anyway, he has a lot of points that I agree with (maybe because we share the love for Birdman) but he makes them in a way I don’t like. I don’t know if he’s bragging about his love for Birdman or he’s just too passionate.
Anyway, the race is far from over. Boyhood is certainly on shakier ground now but it’s still the clear frontrunner.
Jeff might just have won a battle, but he hasn’t won the war.
And I disagree that Boyhood is a critics’ darling and AMPAS might give the critics the finger. Boyhood is potentially a darling for *anyone* who sees it, period. And if it weren’t for the existence of Boyhood, Birdman would have taken the spot as the year’s critics’ darling. It ranks behind Boyhood and Boyhood only in the critics #1 lists.
Birdman is way more alienating than Boyhood. To champion a popular movie that the critics do not like, Hollywood would have voted for American Sniper, not Birdman.
Great article, Sasha. I still can’t see BIRDMAN winning Best Picture though – it’s BOYHOOD’s to lose.
Hoping Birdman pulls this off! Looks like it’s in a great position to do it now.
Should I start knitting you guys a wedding present? I can’t tell if you love him or hate him so it seems like the next logical step.
I’m happy for BIRDMAN though. I’m rooting for it. None of my real favorites made it this year.