This weekend, the all important Ace Eddies will be held and two films will win in their individual categories – drama and musical/comedy.

The common wisdom right now is that BOYMAN or BIRDHOOD will prevail – and that Boyhood will win in drama and Birdman in comedy. BUT.

There are some rules that have been consistently true about the Eddies and the Oscars. The first is that no film has ever won Best Picture without an editing nomination since Ordinary People, over 30 years ago.  The second thing is that since the Ace Editors expanded back in 1998 to separate films into drama and comedy/musical, there has never been a film that was in the comedy category and nominated for an Oscar that hasn’t won.

This year the only film from the comedy category to earn an Oscar nod is The Grand Budapest Hotel. History tells us that will win based on what they’ve done in the past. If it doesn’t win, and it goes to the favorite – Birdman – that will be a first in their history.

Thus, I will predict The Grand Budapest Hotel to prevail in the Comedy category but I will also add that 2015 feels like an odd year. Partly because of the wacky way it’s been going and partly because of the dramatic difference in the dates of Oscar ballots and nominations. In some ways it feels like “all bets are off.” Put it this way – Birdman is going to have to be REALLY popular to break those two historical precedents – to win Eddie without a corresponding Oscar nom, and to win Best Picture without a corresponding Oscar nom in editing.  If it manages either or both of these I would expect you have a robust contender on your hands that will likely sweep the season.

The win in the drama category is also going to be interesting.  I don’t know how you don’t give it to Boyhood when you consider what that movie is – and how it leans so heavily on the editor, in this case, one of the few women to be nominated, Sandra Adair. But this, too, will test the popularity of Boyhood on a much larger scale as we head towards the DGA awards. For some reason it seems like the showier editing might upstage Boyhood – particularly American Sniper, which is my prediction to win this award. It’s just a hunch and bears no weight on Boyhood’s potential Best Picture win – it’s just that I have a feeling Sniper is going to win the Eddie and then win the Oscar.

Let it be said again that I would prefer to see Boyhood win this as I think (not being an editor) it deserves it, along with Best Picture.

In documentary I think it could go to Vivian Maier, which has more showy editing than Citizen Four but I can’t not predict CitizenFour and go agains the consensus.

In animated – I think The Lego Movie takes it but honestly, Big Hero 6 has amazing editing…it’s a tossup for me and many are predicting the Boxtrolls.

Final predictions
American Sniper (but I am hoping for Boyhood)
Grand Budapest Hotel (but it could be Birdman)
Citizenfour (watch out for Vivian Maier)
The Lego Movie (but it could really be Big Hero 6)

You tell me what you think?

(polls)

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