Oscar Predictions Friday – What We Know and What We Don’t

The first thing we know is that there isn’t a lot to know. We know that Spotlight is a slam dunk for Oscar nominations across the board. It is sitting pretty in the Argo slot, underestimated by pundits just enough to keep the target off its back. If you can imagine Tom McCarthy not getting a Best Director nomination, that would be sort of how shocking it was when Ben Affleck didn’t – he was considered as sure a bet as anyone could be. Of course, if McCarthy is left off the Best Director list you can bet there won’t be the same groundswell of support for him like there was Ben Affleck because one was already famous and other isn’t quite there yet.

We also know that The Martian is now officially Ridley Scott’s highest grossing film. Its continued top placement at the box office week after week shows that it’s not just popular, it’s a bit of a phenom, especially since so many people said it was too science-y, too wonky for Joe Popcorn. Well, guess what? It isn’t. Joe Popcorn likes it just fine. Now what people will be wondering is whether or not it will as popular with Oscar voters (hint: it already is).

We know that most slots in Best Actress race seem locked, barring some last minute surprises, like the critics aligning behind one particular performance as they did last year with Marion Cotillard.

We know that several movies could come along and change the game. Even after the AFI Fest comes to a close, there will still be more movies to be seen.

We know that late breakers like David O. Russell and Quentin Tarantino have pulled off last-minute nominations in the past and that their places are being held for them already.

We know that some precedents will be broken and some will maintain steadfast.

We know that many campaigns started months ago. The parties are in full swing and the contenders are “out there” as much as possible, even the usually reticent Johnny Depp.

We know that if Carol, Brooklyn, Room and Joy all get in it will be the first time since 1977 that the Best Picture category features as many as four films about women. 1977 was also the last time a Star Wars movie was nominated for Best Picture.

We know there will be no Best Director contenders who are women. We know that there will possibly be more than one writing nominee who is a woman.

We’re pretty sure Son of Saul is winning Best Foreign Language Film.

We’re pretty sure Inside Out is winning Animated Feature

We’re pretty sure Chivo could be winning his third back-to-back Oscar for cinematography.

What we don’t know:

What’s going to win Best Picture

Who’s going to win Best Actor or Actress, Supporting Actor or Actress

We don’t know if it’s a split year or a sweeps year.

We don’t know what film will later emerge or continue to reign as the critics’ darling.

We don’t know whether the Directors Guild will line up with the Best Director nominees.

All we really have are our best guesses – hunches based on experience predicting the Oscars. This early on, however, not even the most seasoned Oscar pundit has any idea how this year’s race will go.

Still, among the most reliable of those who predict the Oscars, a consensus is beginning to emerge.

Here are the side by side comparisons between Gold Derby and Gurus of Gold. Gold Derby is made up of many pundits, almost three times as many as Movie City News. The biggest difference I can see is that Gold Derby odds have films that haven’t been seen yet pushed high atop the lists whereas those titles aren’t as high at Gurus – maybe because Anne Thompson and Glenn Whipp don’t predict films they haven’t seen and that is affecting the ultimate chart.

Full predictions

(Which may or may not match my predictions on any of these other lists – I don’t know about you but I change mine whenever I stop to think about all the options.)

Best Picture

Frontrunners seen by me:
1. The Martian – Fox
2. Spotlight- Open Road
3. Bridge of Spies – Disney
4. Brooklyn – Fox Searchlight
5. Room – A24
6. Steve Jobs – Universal
7. Beasts of No Nation – Netflix
8. Youth – Fox Searchlight
9. Carol – Weinstein Co.
10. The Danish Girl – Focus
11. Mad Max: Fury Road – Warner Bros.
12. Black Mass – Warner Bro.
13. 45 Years – Sony Classics
14. Love & Mercy

Seen by others, likely bets:
Son of Saul – Sony Classics
Trumbo – Bleecker Street Media

The Big Short – Paramount
Straight Outta Compton – Universal

Not seen yet:
In the Heart of the Sea – Warner Bros.
Joy – Fox
Creed – Warner Bros.
The Hateful Eight – Weinstein Co.

PREDICTIONS
1. The Martian – Fox
2. The Revenant – Fox (sight unseen)
3. Brooklyn – Fox Searchlight
4. Spotlight – Open Road
5. Bridge of Spies – Disney
6. Room – A24
7. Steve Jobs – Universal
8. Joy (sight unseen) – Fox
9. Carol – Weinstein Co.
10. Black Mass – Warner Bros.
Fringe dwellers: The Big Short – Paramount, Beasts of No Nation – Netflix, Creed – Warner Bros, Youth – Fox Searchlight.

Best Director

Frontrunners seen by me:
1. Ridley Scott, The Martian
2. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
3. Bridge of Spies, Steven Spielberg
4. Todd Haynes, Carol
5. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
6. Lenny Abramson, Room
7. Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs
8. Cary Fukunaga, Beasts of No Nation
9. Paolo Sorrentino, Youth
10. John Crowley, Brooklyn

Seen by others, strong bets:
Lazlo Nemes, Son of Saul
Adam McKay, The Big Short
F. Gary Grey, Straight Outta Compton

Still to come
David O. Russell, Joy
JJ Abrams, Star Wars
Ryan Coogler, Creed
Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight
Ron Howard, In the Heart of the Sea

Predictions
1. Ridley Scott, The Martian
2. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
3. Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
4. Lenny Abrahamsom, Room
5. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies
Fringe dwellers: Todd Haynes, Carol;David O. Russell, Joy; Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs; Cary Fukunaga, Beasts of No Nation; or Adam McKay, The Big Short

Best Actor
Frontrunners I’ve seen:
1. Johnny Depp, Black Mass
2. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
3. Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies
4. Michael Caine, Youth
5. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
6. Abraham Attah, Beasts of No Nation
7. John Cusack, Love & Mercy
8. Tobey Maguire, Pawn Sacrifice
9. Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes
10. Jacob Tremblay, Room
11. Jesse Eisenberg, The End of the Tour

Others have seen, strong contenders:
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Steve Carell, The Big Short
Tom Hardy, Legend
Jake Gyllenhaal, Demolition and Southpaw
Michael Fassbender, Macbeth

Still to come:
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael B. Jordan, Creed

Prediction
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
2. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
3. Johnny Depp, Black Mass
4. Matt Damon, The Martian
5. Steve Carell, The Big Short
6. Michael Caine, Youth
7. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
8. Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes
9. Tom Hardy, Legend
10. Abraham Attah, Beasts of No Nation

Supporting Actor
Frontrunners I’ve seen:
1. Paul Dano, Love & Mercy
2. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
3. Harvey Keitel, Youth
4. Michael Keaton, Spotlight
5. Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
6. Benicio Del Toro, Sicario
7 Jason Segel, The End of the Tour
8. Tom Courtenay, 45 Years
9. Joel Edgerton, Black Mass
10. Jason Segel, The End of the Tour
11. Oscar Isaac, Ex Machina

Still to come:
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Robert De Niro, Joy
Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Prediction
1. Paul Dano, Love & Mercy
2. Jacob Tremblay, Room
3. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
4. Michael Keaton or Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
5. Benicio Del Toro, Sicario
Fringe dwellers: Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation; Sylvester Stallone, Creed; or Harvey Keitel, Youth; Tom Hardy, The Revenant; Jeff Daniels Steve Jobs.

Best Actress

Frontrunners I’ve seen:
1. Brie Larson, Room
2. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
3. Cate Blanchett, Carol or Truth
4. Carey Mulligan, Suffragette
5. Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van
6. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
7. Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road
8. Lily Tomlin, Grandma
9. Juliette Binoche, The Clouds of Sils Maria
10. Blythe Danner, I’ll See you in my Dreams

Others have seen/Strong contenders
Marion Cotillard, Macbeth
Kitana Kiki Rodriguez, Tangerine

Still to come:
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy

Prediction
1. Brie Larson, Room
2. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
3. Cate Blanchett, Carol
4. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
5. Carey Mulligan, Suffragette
Fringe dwellers: Maggie Smith, the Lady in the Van, Lily Tomlin, Grandma , Kitana Kiki Rodriguez, Tangerine

Supporting Actress

Frontrunners I’ve seen:
1. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
2. Rooney Mara, Carol
3. Elizabeth Banks, Love & Mercy
4. Jane Fonda, Youth
5. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
6. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria
7. Ann-Marie Duff, Suffragette
8. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
9. Jessica Chastain, The Martian

Still to come
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight

Prediction

1. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
2. Elizabeth Banks, Love & Mercy
3. Rooney Mara, Carol
4. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
5. Jane Fonda, Youth
6. Jessica Chastain, The Martian or Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria

Adapted screenplay

Frontrunners I’ve seen:
1. Drew Goddard, The Martian
2. Aaron Sorkin, Steve Jobs
3. Matt Charman, Joel & Ethan Coen, Bridge of Spies
4. Phyllis Nagy, Carol
5. Charlie Kaufman, Anomalisa
6. Emma O’Donoghue, Room or Nick Hornby, Brooklyn
7. Cary Fukunaga, Beasts of No Nation
8. Andrew Haigh, 45 Years

Others have seen:
Adam McKay, the Big Short

Prediction
1. The Martian
2. Anomalisa
3. Steve Jobs
4. Brooklyn
5. Carol

Original screenplay

Frontrunners I’ve seen:
1. Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer, Spotlight
2. Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley, Inside Out
3. Matt Charman, The Coens, Bridge of Spies
4. Abi Morgan, Suffragette
5. Paul Weitz, Grandma
5. Oren Movermen, Michael A. Lerner, Love & Mercy
6. Alex Garland, Ex Machina

Still to come:
Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight
David O. Russell, Joy

Prediction
1. Spotlight
2. Joy
3. Bridge of Spies
4. The Hateful Eight
5. Inside Out

Random predictions

Best animated feature film of the year
1. Inside Out
2. Anomalisa
3. The Peanuts Movie
4. The Good Dinosaur
5. Minions

Achievement in cinematography
1. The Revenant
2. Carol
3. Sicario
4. Bridge of Spies
5. In the Heart of the Sea

Achievement in costume design
1. Carol
2. Suffragette
3. Brooklyn
4. The Danish Girl
5. Bridge of Spies

Best documentary feature
1. He Named Me Malala (Davis Guggenheim)
2. Going Clear (Alex Gibney)
3. What Happened, Miss Simone? (Liz Garbus)
4. The Heart of a Dog (Laurie Anderson)
5. Amy (Asif Kapadia)

Fringe dwellers: Winter on Fire, The Armor of Light, Hitchcock/Truffaut, Meru, Prophet’s Prey, The Wolfpack

Achievement in film editing
1. The Revenant
2. Spotlight
3. Joy
4. The Martian
5. Bridge of Spies

Best foreign language film of the year
Son of Saul (Hungary)
The Assassin (Taiwan)
The Second Mother (Brazil)
Mustang (France)
Labyrinth of Lies (Germany

Achievement in production design
Carol
The Revenant
Bridge of Spies
The Martian
Star Wars

Achievement in sound editing
The Revenant
Jurassic World
Mad Max: Fury Road
Inside Out
Star Wars

Achievement in sound mixing
Star Wars
Jurassic World
Mad Max: Fury Road
Son of Saul
The Hateful Eight

Achievement in visual effects
Mad Max: Fury Road
Star Wars
Everest
Jurassic World*
In the Heart of the Sea