At Last, A Consensus Emerges in the Best Picture Race

The Oscar race seems to be slowly forming a consensus around a few films. There are other films that exist outside the consensus, and the Academy’s own choice is likely to include at least one unpredictable wild card, but it appears as though a few films have the light on them as the year comes to a close.

The outlier could turn out to be the Screen Actors Guild, which named five films that no one would have predicted, except maybe two of them – Spotlight and The Big Short. The other three presented, suddenly, an interesting challenge. Are they more popular than anyone knew? Has this ever happened before? Will this unpredictable year turn out to be one of those deal breaking years where all bets are off?

Or will it go as planned from here on out: Spotlight wins the Golden Globe, the Producers Guild, the Screen Actors Guild, the Directors Guild and the Oscar. It’s possible, even probable. Like The Hurt Locker and 12 Years a Slave, Spotlight is the one that hits at every award announcement. A better question to be asking is “can any other film win the Screen Actors Guild ensemble award but Spotlight?  The membership is around 100,000 and the majority will have to be with the movie for it to beat the others. The Help beat The Artist. American Hustle beat 12 Years a Slave. Birdman and Argo were SAG favorites.

The Producers Guild and Directors Guild could pose a few interesting propositions for the film. The preferential ballot the Producers Guild will be using favors a movie like Spotlight. It will get lots of number ones and hit all the numbers in between. More importantly, because of the way these awards are spilling out, Spotlight is very likely the ONLY one they’ll all be able to agree on. The reason the SAG ensemble nomination is so important is that Best Picture has to be a movie that all people will respond to. Even if the tide or sentiment turns against Spotlight in the coming weeks (“really? that?”) it’s hard to imagine enough of that momentum to shift the race as it stands, since there isn’t an alternative as yet. Birdman’s win over Boyhood was an anti-Boyhood vote as much as it was a pro-Birdman vote. There was clear annoyance from the industry being cowed by the critics to pick “their” movie. Eventually it turned into “anything but Boyhood” and the only real alternative was Birdman, which had been pinned closely to Boyhood throughout the season, had won a few awards and was – unlike Boyhood – a studio movie with lots of popular actors in it.

It’s important to always remember, where the Academy is concerned, they have five options for Best Picture, not ten, like the AFI or the Critics Choice or the Producers Guild. Having ten choices means you can pick Spotlight and Star Wars and Straight Outta Compton. When asked to pick just five, things can change dramatically.

Around this time last year the Gurus of Gold had all of the films except American Sniper in the top 7. But they had Boyhood on top. The year before, 12 Years a Slave topped the list. But in 2012, Argo was number 3 behind Lincoln and Zero Dark Thirty. Obviously, The Artist was in the lead in 2011, and in 2010, most had Social Network at the top but a few were holding on to The King’s Speech, which eventually won (famously).

That makes it a 50/50 that Spotlight will prevail if you base it on the pundits’ predictions — no other film has ever held the top spot at either Gurus of Gold or Gold Derby. The Artist and 12 Years a Slave are two film that were always atop the predictions until they won Best Picture. Both had reasons for winning. Both might have seemed mildly improbable at first but then became unstoppable. That could be The Artist this year. The two films that challenged these movies didn’t get a SAG ensemble nomination: Hugo or Gravity. If you think of Spotlight’s biggest challenger being either Mad Max or The Martian, neither got an ensemble nomination. Nor did Carol or The Revenant.

Once again, all roads lead back to Spotlight taking the season no matter what. But in terms of nominations, it looks like we have a consensus, echoed at Movie City News:

Now, just to illustrate how rare the SAG ensemble lineup was in terms of how the race usually goes, here is a comprehensive chart – with the help of Marshall Flores — showing a bit of history.

What I get from looking at these charts is that SAG Ensemble usually gets at least three nominees into the Best Picture race. This year, we have two so far: Spotlight and The Big Short. Next, you’re probably looking at Straight Outta Compton or Beasts of No Nation, depending on which of those two Academy voters feel very strongly about. Come to that, Trumbo could even be the third.

Our consensus, or so it seems right now:

Spotlight
The Big Short
Mad Max
The Martian
Carol
Room
Bridge of Spies

Even with only two nominations so far, The Revenant is a sure bet.  And there was one. Which is the 9th? Another wild card is Brooklyn — which is passionately loved but not showing up anywhere it needs to. Might that matter? Hard to say. It only needs 300 people to say it’s their number one favorite film of the year.  It will have to be a passion pick, whatever it is. I would predict one of the following three: Beasts of No Nation, Straight Outta Compton or Inside Out.  There is always the chance that a completely surprising film could turn up, too, like 45 Years or Trumbo. The last two titles could be up in the air, but it appears, at last for now, that a consensus has definitely exposed itself to direct sunlight.