Predictions Friday: That Movie Is Going to Win Best Picture! Okay, But Which One?

Exactly! It’s a shame ):

yeah pretty much

The Revenant is so divisive that several of my friends don’t want to see it after watching the trailer.

American Beauty and The Big Short have very little in common. The Revenant deserves to win. Its the most interesting by far. The others are good but it would be great if they did not went for the easier films

(braylon, we needed to delete those last 4 word you wrote. Please be more careful about saying things that you surely know are pushing the limits of respectful debate, alright? I can see you’re trying to be cooler. It’s a noticeable improvement! We do appreciate it. )

I think it’s probably not fair to compare to the box-office of a hard-core R-rated movie to the box-office of an upbeat family- and teen-friendly PG-13 movie like The Martian.

Almost ALL R-rated movies that strike gold top off at around $160M in recent years. That’s the usual ceiling for R-rated movies.

The only exception is American Sniper because of all the crazed Republicans who hate Iraqis and love seeing pathological liar sociopaths given a free pass to murder women and children foreign countries

(not saying that was the ONLY audience for AmSniper. Just probably that explains the additional $200 million)

“And wouldn’t “broken stats” just make analyzing the stats and trying to discern what they mean a more complicated and hence fun task?”

Definitely, but, like I said in the longer message below, that actually happens way more than 50% of the time, as it is. 🙂 The PGA has a good record of late, but that hardly means you should always predict what the PGA picks. Especially seeing as there’s been a tie recently, and even if you consider Pete “Three Votes” Hammond’s theory this year, which, while probably completely baseless, makes perfect sense…

But wouldn’t it be more interesting if the stats weren’t clear and obvious? I want unpredictability, upsets, breaks in tradition, etc. — it makes Oscar night way more fun. And wouldn’t “broken stats” just make analyzing the stats and trying to discern what they mean a more complicated and hence fun task?

I’m thinking prob a fundamental difference of perspective — if you love stats, you want the stats to prove things. That’s what makes them fun. If you aren’t a stats type, the mess of unpredictability is fun.

Interesting! My non-stats approach is Spotlight, then TR, then TBS. LOL.

I actually want the stats to be broken. If the PGA continues as the clear cut predictor of the Oscar, it will be boring, as the race will be over with the PGA win (admittedly, this may already have happened).

Some years I would start out with BP. For instance, when No Country for Old Men was nominated, it was just so clearly to me a masterpiece, that there was no question what to vote for. And then, you only had to pick the one winner. But with the advent of the preferential ballot, I myself might know what my no. 1 vote was for, but I would actually probably leave the ranking of the remaining nominees to the end, as the most difficult task. Also, in a year like this, when there is no clear favourite (I myself have pros and cons about all the nominees), again I might not do the ranking till the end. But, who knows???

As you are the stats guru here and the most loyal to the stats approach, I’m wondering what the stats say to you right now about BP? (I’m thinking of pre-BAFTA — not sure yet if they have announced their winner.)

You may be right. Hard to say what goes on in their minds, but it is fun to speculate. I am just reporting what Tom O’Neill’s theory has been (and I am not even sure if it is leading him to predict TR, or just advancing a possible theory about how it might get high ranking votes in the preferential picture race even from people who don’t necessarily like it that much.) I actually think it is quite possible that a lot of voters are in a quandary about how to rank best picture, and they WILL actually think, “hmmm, although I found TR unpleasant, grim, etc., I am giving it three major awards, more than any other film, so I cannot reasonably rank it #7 or #8, even though I never want to see it again.” And I don’t think Spotlight is winning a supporting acting oscar, or TBS winning one either — though it may win editing (I actually thought the film was an editing mess — quite haphazard and arbitrary). So I do think (and god i may be wrong) that the bulk of voters will be giving TR more votes in major categories than any other single film. But hey, I am still sticking with Spotlight, for now, as my consensus pick. Not sure exactly if that makes sense in the stats, but it is partly based on the dreaded intuition!

Big budget movies simply haven’t won since The Return of the King (are there even any exceptions?) if I’m not mistaken. So it’s not 6 years, it’s a lot more than that. Once the 1990s were well and truly over, the tendency for big movies to win the Oscar basically just ended. Abruptly. So, yeah, it’s an argument, and definitely not a random one… (And, yes, I do think the preferential also favors smaller films winning, though maybe not decisively.)

“Divisive” movies can do well at the b.o. American Sniper did even better than TR. Around this time in the year, action films w/ major male stars do really well. Sniper in 2015, Lone Survivor 2014, etc.

For a big studio movie, doing bonanza at the b.o. doesn’t necessarily mean unanimous love. Audience would flock to a movie, good or bad, if it appeals to them. To gauge if the mass love it you would have to look at the score it’s given afterwards, as well as returning viewing.

so Spotlight only wins Screenplay and Best Pic?

I know. But the ”too divisive” argument doesn’t work for me, especially if a movie is doing well at the box office. … Anyway, some folks said ”Birdman” was too ”divisive” to win the Oscar, too.

SJ bombed partly b/c it was not an appealing (i.e. good) movie. Room didn’t fire up b.o. business either. (I know it’s not the same type of movie, but it’s doing very reluctantly at the b.o.)

Box office can be A factor, but it’s not THE factor. So many things go into it. Let’s face it: ”Steve Jobs” isn’t a serious Oscar contender because it bombed when it went wide.

Technically, ”American Sniper” won Sound Editing. … But I don’t think it was taken that seriously. It wasn’t nominated for anything at the Golden Globes; only had 2 BAFTA nominations; didn’t win any major Oscar precursor prizes. And at the Oscars, it didn’t get an important Directing nomination. Plus, its perceived politics were too ”right-wing” for L.A.

For me, it was just so great to SEE Sasha. Matching up her face with her voice was wonderful. Do it more!!! 🙂

I am

I pointed out the last 6 b/c of the pref. ballot. and the widening of BP field, where more blockbusters make the cut. But even so if you look back in the last 2 decades or so, nominees that are blockbusters do not tend to win. LOTR is an exception and that is because it’s an award for the accomplishment of that trilogy. AMPAS in recent years favors smaller weightier material.

And the reason I brought this up is I keep hearing forumites and pundits bringing up TR’s sensational b.o. number as a plus proving its momentum toward Oscar BP. I heard this argument last year too when American Sniper was breaking the bank. It ended winning nothing, right? The more the blockbuster TR becomes, the less likely it’s going to win. AMPAS thump their nose toward big popular entertainment.

The DGA win in my opinion is not even an ordinary DGA win, as important a predictor that that it.

They broke their history to give AGI back to back wins.

As Sally Field would say, they really, really liked it.

I don’t think it’s sweeping but I do think what might be an important factor is that both directors will get an Oscar in the screenwriting, so there is the reward for the film, and it’s director no less, right there

The age of the screeners probably makes this less of a potent factor, but you can’t deny the big epic/achievement factor. Unless you’re a TBS fanboy lol

Why do those of us who prefer TR are fanboys and those who prefer TBS are not? So much arrogance from people who love TBS.. Sickening. How about learning to respect differences? How about understanding that other prople’s views are just as valid? There must be a reason why the majority of over 15k DGA members think AGI’s work is remarkable.
Movies like TR, Mad Max, and TM are great cinematic experiences. They justify the big screen. TBS and Spotlight not so much really no matter how brilliant they are. I think that is a HUGE and very valid point.

I thought the same haha

The part that made me laugh is the talk about ”Spotlight” giving people ”the warm fuzzies.” I’m a journalist, and I didn’t get the warm fuzzies. I thought it was polished and professional, but not especially emotional. It was more clinical. And the one moment where Mark Ruffalo’s character erupts with emotion (”We need to nail these scumbags!”) rang so false to me. Do you need ”warm fuzzies” to win Best Picture? I didn’t get any from ”Birdman,” ”The Hurt Locker,” or ”No Country for Old Men,” to name but a few.

“Least favorite: ukraines fight for freedom”

Tyrant! 🙂

“It won the latest important award, the DGA, so awards season newbies think that’s all that matters…”

🙂

may be ..may be not…as tom from golddderby says, that was hank’s honey moon period..same with russell crowe and after leo win may be they will take a break

“But I’m sure a TR loss will be spun against it”

Yes – when, in reality, whenever The Revenant loses, it’s, in fact, irrelevant, whereas when it wins, it’s the most important thing… evah…

“Birdman” sweep last year told us about the industry and their hate of superheroes taking away the powers of traditional filmmaking. And now AGI is presenting TR as their saviour. A big budget film with lavish production and a big name actor and director that is a box office smash and is sweeping the awards season. AGI is hitting them with a one two punch. Maybe he deserves more credit than we’re giving him because the guy is a genius in know what the industry, and especially the Academy, likes and giving it to them. But it’s not AGI who is their real saviour, it’s Leo. Leo is the only actor who draws the crowds to see his film which are original and don’t rely brand awareness. Leo is the only brand an original and non superhero/franchise film needs.

Except me. 🙂 As you probably know…

“By miles” is a bit much, but I slightly prefer it to The Revenant as well, for now.

“Remember, she has just given The Rev three major awards, and potentially some technical ones too, and she has given Spotlight and TBS only one award each, at most.”

Actually, The Big Short, at least, could easily have 2-3 by then (screenplay, editing, supporting actor.) And Spotlight might pick an extra one up as well. Ruffalo, McAdams… those are far from locked categories.

Also, and perhaps more importantly, the thing is, I think if voters know one thing before beginning to complete their ballot, it’s what they’re voting for for Best Picture (having at least a rough ranking in mind, if not even a very clear one.) Are they really going to pause and count how many awards they’ve given each movie before voting for BP, and change their ranking spontaneously, based solely off that? I find that EXTREMELY hard to believe.

Remember Ryan’s post from earlier? The Revenant is (based on the AD simulations, and also common sense) either a 1st-3rd place movie, or a 7th-8th place movie. Are the people placing it 7th or worse all of a sudden going to put it in their top three, just because they’ve given it four awards? (Not even 6-7, like the sweeps of yesteryear…) No. In fact, most of those voters probably won’t even be the ones that DO vote for Leo, or the cinematography, or Inarritu for BD (given that they have the movie in last, or next to last, among the BP nominees).

Even if The Revenant, as expected, gets those wins, it’s unlikely to get even 50% of the votes in each of those categories (or even close to that). They could get as little as 20-30%. Leo’s the only one that might get above 50%, and even he might be winning everywhere right now just on the basis of always having 40-45% or so. And I definitely don’t think cinematography will be a walk for The Revenant. It’ll probably win, but all of the others will get plenty of votes as well, in my opinion. I can’t even begin to imagine just how close BD must be… Not to mention that some of the voters could be voting for Leo and Inarritu, but not the cinematography, or Inarritu and the cinematography, but not Leo… So, yeah, a significant majority of the voters will, in fact, most likely not be facing this “I just gave The Revenant four or more awards but I’m not voting for it for Best Picture” issue at all.

And are the ones that have it second or third REALLY going to change their NUMBER ONE pick on the ballot (which most often will be either Spotlight or The Big Short) they had in mind before voting, based solely on having just given The Revenant a few awards more than the rest? Isn’t it FAR more likely that they will have already voted for their number one pick in other categories instead, prior to that? So that it might already have 2-3 wins on their ballot by the time they get to BP? To me all of this is just common sense.

Stallone brought a lot of warmth and humanity to a role that he’s played seven times now, but it was still essentially a one-note performance. The one scene that required some range, the scene where he tells Creed about his diagnosis, is the only really compelling moment of his performance. I liked Creed a lot, but Stallone’s isn’t a particularly memorable performance.
I wouldn’t have even nominated him, not when you had so many other great supporting performances like Michael Shannon in 99 Homes, Michael Stuhlbarg and Jeff Daniels in Steve Jobs, Oscar Isaac in Ex-Machina, Walton Goggins in The Hateful Eight, Stanley Tucci in Spotlight, Idris Elba in Beasts, Benicio Del Toro in Sicario. Those actors actually created interesting fully realized characters. Stallone has a built-in poignancy of playing the character that has defined his whole career, but as a stand alone performance in a single film, it’s not all that great.

If it’s not, it’s because of the ACE snub, not because of those defeats. Braveheart, Shakespeare in Love and Crash also lost both, but won BP. The number of movies to have lost the PGA+SAG or the SAG+DGA, respectively, is only marginally higher. Nowhere near enough to be statistically relevant in any significant way.

Which, like Birdienest81 said, still wouldn’t clarify the situation.

“I think what separates Revenant from some of those Benjamin Buttons and Hugo’s and such were that those years had CLEAR frontrunners.”

Fair enough. That’s a good point. I just don’t think that’s anywhere near enough evidence that it means it’s the favorite. Or even that it has particularly good chances. But you’re right, there is a difference. Which, however, may or may not prove important.

Awesome post, Ryan! The Revenant and Carol being 1-3/7-8 movies makes so much sense!

As for the top 10, we have 4 top 10 entries in common (Fury Road, Brooklyn, Ex Machina, Sicario, in this order, for me), and your 11th place is my no.1 (or no.2, still undecided between it and Star Wars), while my 11th place is your no.2. 🙂

“In my opinion it is a factor”

Exactly. IN YOUR OPINION… That’s the key, right there! I have some interesting opinions too, but I don’t present them as arguments when they contradict the facts… Not that it’s wrong to do that. But it’s wrong to pretend your opinion is more than just an opinion, when history clearly shows otherwise, and to expect others to share it and even to express it whenever possible, no less.

No, there are clear negatives about TR, we should know off by heart because they get mentioned every 5 minutes here- lost PGA, no WGA or screenplay nom, Birdman/AGI won last year, more divisive than the other 2 frontrunners.

There are clear negatives, we don’t have to make up new, stupid ones.

“Something I noticed… the highest ranked Best Picture nominee on the IMDB 250 is now…. ROOM.”

Well, that sucks…

Whiplash hadn’t won the PGA, though. It wasn’t a strong BP contender.

“I also have this hunch that the people on “Team Spotlight” and “Team Big Short” will sort of be mutually exclusive, that they’ll put their film at number one and then put the other one low on their ballot and have The Revenent somewhere inbetween the two.”

Based on what?

There’s an interesting clue as to why “Carol” has done well with BAFTA and why it might do even better on Sunday.
Allon Reich, the producer of the independent sci-fi thriller Ex Machi pointed out that Carol, nominated in the best film category, was “grounded in the UK” having begun life as the passion project of British producers Steve and Elizabeth Karlsen and received considerable backing from Film 4.
Also, BOS, which has got as many nominations as “Carol”, was written by a British writer and then revised by the Coens. These might explain why they have done much better at BAFTAs than at the Oscar.

Yes, Stallone is fucking due, like it or not. He is a legend and the fact that people didn’t accept him as an actor ruined it… But he is an amazing actor!

Yes, TBS will remain the favourite if none of the three frontrunners win BAFTA BP. TR and “Spotlight” need to win BAFTA BP to push them past TBS.
If TBS wins BAFTA BP, then the race is over. Brad Pitt and his team of producers are former winners and will be very difficult to beat. PGA have spoken and if BAFTA agrees, then TBS wins Oscar BP.

Lol too much idle time it seems.

This has to be the most stupid anti TR argument I have read.

nope..its been just few weeks….dga is latest..buzz dead means a movie released in november is not longer in conversation..thats called dead buzz..this is just series of awards and nothing more

Big Short’s buzz has died. Since PGA win this film did nothing. Why it lost SAG to Spotlight? and voting just started

i feel like this thing is going against spotlight

Spotlight is in favor of reporters,let all be clear about that.Spotlight is pro-reporters.
Major scandals in film industry are due to reporters.Celebrity cheating scandals or any such stuff.So in a way reporters are like these vultures hovering around film industry trying to pick on people who are famous and make more breaking news and more clicks to the site.
If spotlight wins its like hollywood is telling “good job reporters” which i dont think is what it wants to do…after all they are these horrible people who ask personal questions and questions about craft most actors dont wanna talk about.

Lets be honest spotlight resonated so well with critics because its shows journalism in good light.
The big short and spotlight dont go for same voters because big short is not supporting anybody its just showing stuff and it reinforces the fact hollywood can tackle complex subject.

Spotlight is like “reporters are good” movie….and all reporters like it. 50 k AFTRA voters is the reason it won sag ensemble(if you see anne thompson speak you can clearly know she is obsessed with spotlight and biased in her bragging about it) and not because of performances or its being important movie.American hustle won over ever important 12 years a slave.

If the Revenant wins BP, it would be the highest budgeted movie and the highest grossing movie since Lord of the Rings to win BP. Just one more stat against it.

An average budget for an Oscar winning BP in the last six years is $21 million (TR-$135M) and average gross is $72M (TR-$154M so far).

From best to worst in order of my favorite nominees to least favorite
Best picture
Favorite: mad max: fury road
Least favorite: Spotlight

Director
Favorite: Adam McKay for the big short
Least favorite: tom McCarthy: Spotlight

Actor
Favorite: Leonardo dicaprio or Matt Damon
Least favorite: Bryan Cranston

Actress
Favorite: saorise Ronan
Least favorite: Jennifer Lawrence

Supporting actor
Favorite: Sylvester Stallone
Least favorite: Christian bake

Supporting actress
Favorite: Alicia vikander
Least favorite: Jennifer Jason Leigh

Original screenplay
Favorite: inside out
Least favorite: straight outta Compton

Adapted screenplay
Favorite: the martian
Least favorite: the big short

Animated feature
Favorite: inside out
Least favorite: boy and his world

Documentary feature
Favorite: Amy
Least favorite: ukraines fight for freedom

Animated short film
Favorite: world of tommorrow
Least favorite: bear story

Live action short film
Favorite: everything will be okay
Least favorite: Ave Maria

Documentary short subject
Favorite: body team 12
Least favorite: last day of freedom

Foreign language film
Favorite: Son of Saul from Hungary
Least favorite: a war from Denmark

Cinematography
Favorite: John seale for mm:fr
Least favorite: the hateful eight

Film editing
Favorite: the big short
Least favorite: the revenant

Sound mixing
Favorite: Star Wars the force awakens
Least favorite: bridge of spies

Sound editing
Favorite: mad max fury road
Least favorite: sicario

Visual effects
Favorite: mad max fury road
Least favorite: ex machinA

Original score
Favorite: John Williams Star Wars the force awakens or carter burwell carol
Least favorite: ennio morricone the hateful right

Original song
Favorite: Sam smith. Writings on the wall from spectre
Least favorite: simple song 3 from youth

Costume design
Favorite: the revenant
Least favorite: the Danish girl

Production design
Favorite: the revenant
Least favorite: the Danish girl

Makeup
Favorite: mad max fury road
Least favorite: Jupiter ascending

No PGA nom and no Oscar script nom rules out TR, MMFR, and Room.
Of the other five, Spotlight or TBS would be the most likely winner (BOS isn’t BP material), but I wouldn’t be at all shocked if either TM or Brooklyn won on the night.

NIce to see Sasha on Video Podcast. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wa3FdAPUBBQ

Have to LOL at that one. But I’m sure a TR loss will be spun against it

Read my post again. She says she thinks TR will win not TBS

AMPAS has become artier than the past, so it’s not always “easy” movies that win… No Country For Old Men, The Hurt Locker, 12 Years a Slave, Birdman….

Sasha: I think The Revenant will win but I can’t predict it.

What’s a prediction if not who you think will win?

but the problem with narrative that miller has won zero…is very weak..TBH…DGA and oscars disagreed few years and in one year DGA- chicago vs Oscar- polanski…but two things are going against miller

1)He is not serious awards caliber director like innaritu or polanski…he made mad max movies and animated mostly….its not like he gave us classics and hasnt won yet…its his first directing nomination..witches of eastwick and loresnzo’s oil are only two oscar type movies which has very weak support from academy.

2)he is based in australia and mad max is basically australian franchise..so not many american think its thats resonating..

all i am saying that had he made 3 or 4 movies with like 5 major oscars nominations each then may be he has better shot at oscars….

Thank you Braylon.

Great cinematography is about two things: first, what is the character and quality of the images on the frame in front of you — the colours, the textures, the variations in focus, etc. This is what most people think of as great cinematography — the “pretty pictures/that film was so beautiful to look at” perspective.

But, second, it is also about how the camera is used: how is the action in any particular scene framed, and how does the camera move within a shot. This is often overlooked in people’s assessment of great cinematography.

I thought Mad Max was great in both spheres — the beauty of the Green Place, for example, and the vigourous, disorienting placement of the camera in the action scenes.

One of the great cinematography jobs this year was Tangerine. Ignore the fact that it was made on an iPhone (which itself is impressive), but the great burnt-out orange/yellow/brown hues, and the really creative framing of the camera to bring into contrast foreground and background aspects in the shot, was just stunning.

I really believe TBS will win Oscar BP because it’s stats favourite and I believe it’s the industry favourite. Most of the time the film that is playing stronger than pundits are predicting usually wins. I thought TBS was going to be a big player months ago because it was not on pundits list yet it seem to have come from nowhere due to its backing from the industry. AGI was a bit like that this year and everyone underestimated him mostly because he won last year. There’s the industry support and the critics/pundits’ support and it looks to me like TBS has the latter while MM:FR has latter. Normally, we’re when talking about screenplay, it’s about which film win it and thus be favourite to win BP because the only film to win Oscar BP without winning a screenplay in the last ten years is “The Artist”. But this year we’re talking about a screenplay nomination, which shows how messed up it is. I had “Spotlight” as the big favourite from the beginning because it was the huge favourite to the Best Original Screenplay and none of the big contenders for Adapted, “Carol”, “Room, TM, looked like they would challenge it for BP. Which has turned out right. I thought the only one that could challenge it is a late arrival which had a strong screenplay and TBS has almost the same things as “Spotlight”, good performances by big name ensemble actors, great screenplay and important subject. One of the things the Academy does is to look for an alternative to favourite or the film they’re supposed to reward. I thought that TBS could an alternative to “Spotlight” if the Academy didn’t want to reward “Spotlight” and that’s the way it’s playing at the moment. I mean, the Best Picture award goes to the producer so it apt that whichever film PGA deems best wins BP Oscar most of the time. I don’t think the TR will win BP and will only believe it can if it wins BAFTA BP.

Oh hi, me again.

Just wanted to add, one of the reasons why it defies logic to think any movie could get 50% of the ballots in the first round is this:

There is a 5% ballot threshold a movie must reach to even be nominated.

So we can work backwards from that fact, and show with a fair degree of certainty that every BP nominee will get an initial stack of ballots that amounts to 5% of the Academy membership.

In a race with only two strong frontrunners, that could look like this:

40% – movie 1
30% – movie 2
5% – movie 3
5% – movie 4
5% – movie 5
5% – movie 6
5% – movie 7
5% – movie 8
(100%)

And that’s still bizarre looking, right? It would require that movies as popular as Mad Max, or Spotlight cannot get more than 5% of the vote?

And even if that strangeness occurred, there’s still no way that two frontrunners can be near evenly matched and one of them wins on the first ballot with 50%. No way.

With three strong frontrunners (as we almost all agree we have) we get something more like this on the first round of counting.

30% – movie 1
25% – movie 2
20% – movie 3
5% – movie 4
5% – movie 5
5% – movie 6
5% – movie 7
5% – movie 8
(100%)

Still crazy looking. Voters in all the simulations we’ve ever done NEVER cluster at the top like mobs this way.

And anyway, just because Fury Road is being discarded as a Best Picture winner because it’s under-performing with guilds — so what? Have people stopped loving it? Of course not.

There’s no way on earth that only 5% of Oscar voters will choose Fury Road. It’s too popular. Has to be more than that.

So this is more evidence that we’re looking at a very tight grouping among the 3 films in the top tier, with the next 5 movies still racking up respectable and logical percentages:

23% – movie 1
22% – movie 2
20% – movie 3
15% – movie 4 (let’s say this is Fury Road)
5% – movie 5
5% – movie 6
5% – movie 7
5% – movie 8
(100%)

New Rule? Any year when we get so many treasures nominated for Best Picture, it becomes less and less likely that any frontrunner can guarantee its win in the first or second round of counting.

Allegiances are spread out in too many strong directions.

Starting out at the top of the heap is always important, but the more we spread the votes logically to the other nominees, the tighter the cluster of frontrunners gets at the top.

A movie needs to be 10% ahead of its next closest rival to skate free to a win unchallenged.

Any sample scenario we design that has the top ranked movie surging 10% ahead of all its rivals starts to look ridiculously unlikely whenever we jot down actual numbers.

My favorite of the year doesn’t win since “No Country” as well. “Gravity” came close I presume. Then not even close. “Unforgiven,” “The Godfather I & II.” Point is this must happen very rarely for *everyone*

“you jump..i jump…remember?”….lol..rofl…thats why…

spotlight is more not an easy watch than the big short..the big short is a truth we cant look away from…if we look away it might happen again bernie winning is a string sign people are angry about wallstreet….spotlight can be looked away as only a few thousand kids might get molested(i am not being a dick but statistically speaking this is true)…12 yrs wasnt an easy watch

Great list, Ryan. I like how you see all of the BP nominees as worthy this year. I agree. My list as of now (haven’t seen Carol, 45 Years, Creed, Anomalisa):

1. *The Big Short*
2. It Follows
3. *Room*
4. Clouds of Sils Maria
5. *The Revenant*
6. *Bridge of Spies*
7. *Brooklyn*
8. *Mad Max: Fury Road*
9. Tangerine
10. Ex Machina
11. *Spotlight*
12. Steve Jobs
13. *The Martian*
14. Phoenix
15. Beasts of No Nation

I’d prefer these winners to what people seem to be thinking. Except Damon. It’d be terrible if he took Leo out again.

i guess they loved the movie soo much as its about old people who feel irrelevant in current superhero boom( for birdman)..and the oscar voters are old people….

i would compare it to tom hanks and steven spielberg(who are beloved by academy)….both did great in captain philips and lincoln but why wasnt hanks nominated and spielberg didnt win ?? its more like them going “enough already…you already have too many oscars”

I prefer THE GREY by miles. That was a good freakin’ movie.

i think you should watch the grey…and TBH it is not a huge budget movie and so you wont see “wow” type scenes…but it does have a deep theme running through the movie and it’s no way inferior to revenant..if revenant wins then that movie also deserves to have won…i believe not only you but a lot of people are liking it only because its leo’s movie…i wrote this earlier dont take it personally….john wayne had lot of hits so people would go to theatre to see his movies and he is john wayne in all his roles…marlon brando has lots of flops but he isn’t marlon brando in all of his roles..he is different in each role…so who is regarded as the the greatest actor ?? marlon brando or john wayne..?? leo is like john wayne..peopel droll over him when his movies come…people i mean fans,studio executives(as his movies make money) and newspaper people(since studios pay them and audience watch them)…its just good deal for everyone..no actor would say leo is a chameleon…leo is leo in every role except gilberts grape in my opinion..dont be offended..but just think about it with open mind and not as a leo fanboy/girl closed mind lol

Eh, not too sure. Like i said, it is possible, but other award shows are more likely to give a total of two wins to the best pic winner (i must humbly admit I havent researched how likely this is re:Baftas), but the last time it happened at the Oscars was …. What, Rebecca? Back in the early days when sweepers werent as common and when spreading the wealth was ….

sorry to chime in…but revenant is more like the grey(2011) with liam neeson…but only directed better and acted better(which we dont know…since all the news papers are saying we think so)…there is lot of filler in the movie IMHO and yes we know a)director wanted us to feel like the character b) he is going for surrealist view but it comes off as over indulgent….and i believe the dga win is more to do with innaritu than the movie….here is a guy who stuck to his vision by not making movie commercial and doing it as a art house movie but with high budget…that i think is the narrative if it wins…more than the movie quality it has to do with movie being a rarity in current economical movie industry of superheros where there is guaranteed return this movie felt like a gamble…thats the reason he won over miller…miller had the advantage of being a sequel where as innaritu is doing a big budget independent movie…as for the haters i think people hate it from story point of view as i have told earlier..its too thin..

American Hustle showed unexpected, broader support too with its nominations (especially getting the production design nomination + 4 acting nominations in all categories – the second year in a row for O’Russell). That didn’t translate to much on Oscar night that year. In fact, it translated to exactly zero Oscars that year.

The only real surprising nomination for The Revenant was Hardy’s nomination, but given how supporting actor was a total free for all this year with so many performances and the precursors all over the place, I don’t think it was *that* surprising. Everything else was more or less expected with the techs.

The movies he mentioned with buckload of noms. Quite a few of them “overperformed” in a few categories. The only real “overperforming” category for TR is Tom Hardy (but a lot of ppl say that owes to him also being in MM:FR). Sure, ppl didn’t expect it to get Costume Design, but it’s not like that’s such a shocking inclusion.

The Revenant has so much going for it – even it being Inarritu’s second back to back film isn’t a drawback because it only adds to the awe factor. It’s breathtaking and magnificent but you know, it doesn’t have a story. Can you think of any winners like that? It’s not as obtuse as Tree of Life…I just keep coming back to it having so many haters – it’s polarizing. I don’t know. I’m completely off track. I guess I just liked The Big Short more because it’s “smarter.” But smart doesn’t sell either. Watch it be Spotlight.

Titanic also had a WGA nomination, something that TR doesn’t have.

Terrible? why?

So Jeffrey Wells was right!

Yeah, thinking it’s like Ang Lee winning DGA, Gladiator winning BP and Soderbergh winning director.

I think that in the modern era of Oscar they really do feel fine about tech awards – and I wouldn’t be so sure she’ll also pick Inarritu for director just because the DGA did. These guys just gave the award to Inarritu last year – it’s not like they’re going to be jumping up and down to give it to him again. They might but I wouldn’t call that as much of a lock as Leo and Cinematography. She might go – I actually liked The Big Short better so it gets Picture, Director and Screenplay.

kinda like alicia vikander this year both turned in an impressive body of work , i saw legend the other day and was impressed by the work he put in playing two distinctive characters plus leo always make his co-star look good in his movies

I’m not sure about TKS, but there’s a very clear parallel between Gladiator and TBS. They both were during years where the three guilds split between three different movies, and they were both the PGA winner. Ergo, if TBS wins, it will be following Gladiator’s example.

2000
PGA: Gladiator **(BP winner)**
DGA: Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
SAG: Traffic

2015
PGA: The Big Short **(will be like Gladiator if it wins BP)**
DGA: The Revenant
SAG: Spotlight

One thing I’m pretty much certain is that Spotlight is actually not a good bet. To win BP in my opinion, Spotlight has to win in two more categories. Orig. Screenplay is a lock, ok, but what else? It’s hard to predict it as front-runner in any other of its nominations. So, for me is down to TBS x The Revenant.

It’s easy to see TBS taking editing and adapted screenplay, and that two represent strong support. The combination of BP – Script – Editing is shared by many past winners.

But The Revenant is apparently front runner for directing and actor, two strong categories also, besides its potential in thec categories.

I believe some academy members might take The Revenant as the friendliest diversity pick since, after all, the director is the only person of color in his category, and the plot and cast revolves around native Americans in a post colonialism approach. The Revenant campaign strategy is making use of it and as you can note Iñarritu is talking more and more about race.

Also the movie is the most “Oscar epic movie”, like 12 years a slave, Gladiator, Braveheart, The English Patient, Dance with Wolves. The Academy can easily follow its tradition.

I’m still beting on TBS, at least until The Revenant takes Bafta as it seems it will.

In the end, this three are my fave films in contention, and I wouldn’t know wich one to choose if I were to vote.

Agreed there will certainly be a contingent that falls into that category, but I don’t know that it is that large. The DGA just suggests that there is enough support for Inarritu that he will win, and Lubezki has won cinematography in the last two years and now has one of the two most visually stunning films in the nominations, along with MMFR, which seems to be sinking.

Although I am still leaning towards Spotlight as being the boring “consensus” pick in a preferential voting system (and I know TBS won the PGA), I do find Tom O’Neill’s argument about the voters and The Revenant quite compelling.

Basically, O’Neill envisions the average AMPAS voter at his or her computer, filling out the ballot. She marks Leo for Best Actor. She marks Lubezki for Cinematography. She marks Inarritu for Director. She marks Spotlight and TBS for one award each, Screenplay. She may also have marked The Rev for some technical awards.

Then, she gets to the last category, the one that involves the most thought, i.e. ranking the BP nominees. Remember, she has just given The Rev three major awards, and potentially some technical ones too, and she has given Spotlight and TBS only one award each, at most. Now, if she loved The Rev, she’ll mark it at #1. But even if she only liked or even disliked it, how can she realistically mark The Revenant below #3, when she has just given it three major awards (I consider cinematography a MAJOR award), and at least several more than Spotlight and TBS???? It’s a little like 12YaS — many people didn’t love it, or didn’t enjoy watching it, but they felt compelled to vote for it (in that case, due to its political message, but in The Revenant’s case, due to it being the big winner in so many other major categories). So The Revenant gets lots of #1 votes from people who love it, but it also gets a lot of #2 and #3 votes from people who might not have even liked it that much but recognize that, given its other wins, it simply has to be recognized in the top three.

The same process doesn’t apply to Spotlight and TBS, because they only have one other award, and no one’s gonna think they HAVE to put either of those films in the top three just because they voted it a single award for Screenplay. (I myself would vote for Spotlight for Screenplay, but in a ranking ballot I would put it after The Revenant, MMFR, The Martian, Brooklyn and TBS. I wouldn’t even vote for TBS for Screenplay.)

This I think is how The Rev can win BP in a preferential ballot. And this is why the fact that lots of people hate The Revenant (at least, based on Rotten Tomatoes), may not mean that those same people rank it low.

Great post! Loved this info! I think what separates Revenant from some of those Benjamin Buttons and Hugo’s and such were that those years had CLEAR frontrunners. I don’t believe BB or Hugo – and the like – ever had a shot against Slumdog/Artist. The Revenant IS a threat for Pic and Dir.

Well, 90% of AMPAS voters don’t give a fuck about film as an “art form” or about the aesthetic qualities of a film. They’re just as human, and as biased, as the general public.

The fact that Metacritic skews to more “reputable” critics actually makes it LESS reliable as a tool for Oscar prognosticating, since it is far less representative of the average AMPAS voter.

I think the bigger problem with ”Steve Jobs” was that many moviegoers just weren’t interested in a film about him. The failure of the 2013 ”Jobs,” starring Ashton Kutcher, should’ve been an omen. Even tho’ ”Steve Jobs” won more acclaim, it grossed just $17.7 million, slightly more than Kutcher’s pic ($16 mil).

Also, Jobs’ widow, Laurene, allegedly feared the new film would be unflattering. A source on ”’Steve Jobs” told the Hollywood Reporter that she tried to kill the movie and begged DiCaprio & Bale not to play Jobs.

Yeah, isn’t it crazy that two months ago people had Mad Max winning 6-7 awards and now it’s looking at 2-3. Of course, it could still win the most and I hope it does.

The thing we that the techs are really tricky this year.

Cinematography – I still believe the ASC will back John Seale for Mad Max: Fury Road and he won a bunch of critics’ awards but The Revenant has the press.
Editing – The Big Short vs. Mad Max. Both are flashy and full of cuts. I would say Mad Max has it but if The Big Short is really a best picture front-runner (which I somehow don’t believe), isn’t it likely to take editing, especially given how much of a showcase it is?
Production Design – Here I think Mad Max has it but voters could be traditionalists and back off.
Costume Design – Cinderella? Carol? Mad Max? The Danish Girl? My hunch is The Danish Girl will take this. It has glamorous costumes and it feels like it’s full of costumes.
Make-up & Hair -Mad Max vs. The Revenant.
Sound categories – I still believe the nature sounds will boost The Revenant here but Mad Max is a contender.
Visual Effects – Star Wars has the VES. If it wins BAFTA, it’ll be interesting as it isn’t a picture contender. Mad Max?

Why are The King’s Speech and Gladiator precedents for The Big Short to win?

1. Both The King’s Speech and Gladiator had the year’s most nominations – 12.
2. Gladiator had the Golden Globe, the Critics’ Choice, the BAFTA – all wins The Big Short does’t have (it still could win BAFTA).
3. Both films had a best actor win.
4. Both films had Globe directing nominations.
5. The King’s Speech had the PGA, but it had the DGA (!), SAG Cast and the BAFTA sweep as well.

They are both correct

I’m no expert on movies but do make a living betting on politics and let’s face it , in the Western world politics and Hollywood are becoming more intertwined ; I have lived exactly half of my like in the US and half in the UK and this has given me a wide angle lens view of things …I am certain that TR wins BAFTA and one of the clues is that Inarritu is the odds on favourite to win B D and suspect that folks within the Bafta community are betting on him …it’s still possible that there is a split and that TBS or Spotlight win BP but I seriously doubt it …..TR is raved about over here in the UK whereas TBS was released very late and has remained very low key ; I don’t personally know anyone else who has watched it …add to that Leo’s academy winning performance and the universal appeal of movies about the 19th C American West and it just seems to me to be the obvious winner ! The fact that BAFTA missed rewarding Inirritu last years just confirms to me that they are not going to make the same mistake twice

Revenant will win BP and BD at BAFTA

Mad Max doesn’t have any writing or acting nominations, which all of those ‘surprise’ Best Director wins did. For that reason alone I don’t see Miller winning. I think those who are predicting him to win (particularly Anne Thompson and Gregory Ellwood) are letting their own love of the film cloud their judgment.

You’re ascribing too much power to the Oscar experts/pundits. They can’t really change the narrative. If they could, their predictions would be right 100% of the time. And as we’ve seen, especially this season, they’ve been surprised again and again. The voters will vote however they want. All the experts can do is try to interpret those results & second-guess why. Even as you can see in this video, 4 GoldDerby editors can all take the same info and come to different conclusions.

By the way, they brought up the tricky matter of the preferential ballot. If a film can gather enough No. 2 placements to win the Oscar, maybe the title of the top prize should be changed. Instead of being called Best Picture, maybe it should be Second-Best Picture. Or Best Consensus Picture. 😉

I don’t think the WGA’s are getting much attention because most everyone believes it’ll be a slam-dunk for ”Spotlight” (Original Screenplay) and ”The Big Short” (Adapted). It’ll only be news … if they lose.

Just a reminder: Those film awards are usually given out very late to cap off the WGA evening. But Pete Hammond reports that they’ll be given out much earlier in the night, so the screenwriters of ”Spotlight” and ”The Big Short” can catch a flight and make it to England in time for the BAFTAs on Sunday.

Hey, hasn’t anybody brought up that the WGA Awards are tomorrow?

GoldDerby editors Tom O’Neil, Chris Beachum, Daniel Montgomery and Paul Sheehan offer their latest dish and deliberations about the BAFTAs and the Oscars. Even they’re wrestling with whichever way it goes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pza9ofaztd8

TBS isn’t nominated in Best Actor is it?

You’d think, but everyone I try to recommend it to gets grossed out by the concept and no matter what I do to try to explain to them that’s it’s actually this uplifting thing they just refuse to listen.

I feel like the notion that The Revenant is a “love it or hate it” thing is a bit off, and skewed by internet hyperbole. There are probably a lot of people who will be throwing their passion votes at, something like Room or Bridge of Spies or whatever, and then still putting The Revenant pretty high on their ballots just out of the sheer respect for its craft elements. I also have this hunch that the people on “Team Spotlight” and “Team Big Short” will sort of be mutually exclusive, that they’ll put their film at number one and then put the other one low on their ballot and have The Revenent somewhere inbetween the two.

It’s divisive among critics but critics and Academy members are often not in lock step and they especially aren’t in lock step when it comes to Iñárritu. I personally don’t get why but there seems to be a contingent of critics who just hate that guy. Birdman was pretty divisive among critics too but it still got through award season with a clear consensus.

i felt the same way when i read it..i donno why that dude had to put finger where it dont belong

I gotta say, I’m still predicting The Big Short to win, but with Director clearly going to Inarritu, Editing not nearly a sure thing, Bale a huge upset pick in Supporting Actor, and Adapted Screenplay being the only sure win, I might have to change to The Revenant, as much as I am fighting it. That PGA stat has to be broken sooner or later.

My current predictions

Picture – THE BIG SHORT
Director – Inarritu, THE REVENANT
Actor – Leonardo DiCaprio, THE REVENANT
Actress – Brie Larson, ROOM
Supporting Actor – Christian Bale, THE BIG SHORT
Supporting Actress – Alicia Vikander, THE DANISH GIRL
Adapted Screenplay – THE BIG SHORT
Original Screenplay – SPOTLIGHT
Editing – THE BIG SHORT
Cinematography – THE REVENANT (3 in a row for Lubezki, wow)
Animated Feature – INSIDE OUT
Visual Effects – MAD MAX
Sound Editing – THE REVENANT
Sound Mixing – THE REVENANT
Makeup – MAD MAX
Production Design – MAD MAX
Costumes – CINDERELLA
Score – THE HATEFUL EIGHT
Song – Till It Happens to You, THE HUNTING GROUND
Foreign Feature – SON OF SAUL
Documentary Feature – AMY
Animated Short – WORLD OF TOMORROW
Live Action Short – AVE MARIA
Documentary Short – BODY TEAM 12

If Bale doesn’t win at the BAFTAs, I’m probably going to be changing that prediction to Stallone (ugh). I’m predicting TBS to win at the BAFTAs too, but if THE REVENANT wins, I’m probably going to switch, which bums me out. THE BIG SHORT wasn’t my favorite movie this year, not even in my Top 10, but I liked it a lot, and I’ve been predicting it since the SAG nominations came out.

yeah i read that too..that fella was pretty aggressive…i used to laugh it off 🙂

Viley I disagree here. BAFTA gave WHIPLASH best editing last year and it didn’t win BP so even if TBS wins editing we have to wait until the end of the ceremony
BOYHOOD won BP at BAFTAs and lost editing.

There are so many misconceptions and wrongheaded ideas in that post that I don’t know where to begin to correct them … so I won’t. I’ve got better things to do with my ttime.

Obviously. But you would expect this to translate into word of mouth box office at some point, especially for a film that’s been out for four months.

Sigh. Here we go again.

THESE ARE THE FILMS WINNING PEOPLE. PAY NO attention to the pundits behind the curtain. You’re all being tricked!
_____________

BEST PICTURE: The Martian
BEST DIRECTOR: Ridley Scott, The Martian (Write-In Vote)
BEST ACTOR: Matt Damon
BEST ACTRESS: Cate Blanchett
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Mark Ruffalo (Readings have changed)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Rooney Mara
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: The Martian
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Straight Outta Compton
BEST SCORE: Carol
BEST COSTUMES: Carol
BEST EDITING: The Martian
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: The Martian
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Mad Max
BEST SOUND: The Martian
BEST SOUND EDITING: The Revenant
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: The Martian
BEST MAKEUP: Mad Max
BEST FOREIGN: Oh (no readings; blurry)

Agreed. According to Metacritic, the highest rated nominee is Spotlight, followed by Mad Max. The lowest rated is The Revenant.

Pretty rare that the winner has the worst critic reviews, but hey what do critics know? They are just people who watch countless movies and have a strong idea of what is good and bad.

I also believe Hardy is likely 2nd, though, a distant 2nd. The Revenant love spread to him (not that it isnt deserved, I thought he was electric in the role) — that Rev love is very powerful.

There’s an awful lot of CRAP critics/reviews on Rotten Tomatoes.

I think Crash is the highest but that Beautiful Mind rating kind of blows my mind. The Revenant is in Les Miserables territory in terms of divisiveness. Which is odd and not usual for a Best Pic winner. On the other hand, the miracle of Inarritu making it right after Birdman could surpass that kind of negativity.

Simple, not messy, this year is so simple: The Revenant is winning. Happy about that. Happy about Spotlight upsetting if it happens. Only BIG DRAMA: Larson winning actress. Ronan gave the best best best performance of the 5.

I can’t believe Mad Max will go home empty-handed in the biggest categories ):

removed since my fellow commentors felt its filled with wrong details

Not true. Check metacritic. It has several 100s and won a few critics awards.

It’s hard to buy that DiCaprio.has no ”personality.” He’s one of the world’s biggest movie stars. With ”The Revenant,” he’s now starred in Inarritu’s biggest hit. Just as he starred in Tarantino’s biggest hit (”Django Unchained”) and Scorsese’s (”The Wolf of Wall Street”).

Hardy is an infinite better actor than DiCaprio, so it’s easier to like him more in the movie. But Hardy’s is not the kind of role that win Oscars. Evil characters have to be clever to have their actors to win.

Indeed. Except that maybe the momentum is running with it due to the DGA win. DGA is bigger predictor than PGA. Can’t wait to find out. I don’t care who wins really. I liked them all.

Not happening this time. Stallone has it. He’s both the “due” and sentimental choice. Leo is the “due” choice.

I liked him more then Glass even if he was a murdering prick. I just have to have a gun near by when i’m around him.

Something I noticed… the highest ranked Best Picture nominee on the IMDB 250 is now…. ROOM.

Even though it won the Toronto People’s Choice award, this is somewhat surprising, given its box office to date.

JANET MANCHIN IS A CRUEL MISTRESS. INSIDE OUT FOREVER.

Ruffalo runner up, only one award for Mad Max and another snub for Morricone

https://media.giphy.com/media/cQtlhD48EG0SY/giphy.gif

If Inside Out wins Screenplay, Spotlight goes home empty handed. Too cruel.

He got nommed without campaigning, no one was expecting that. They love him. And what do you mean by dim? He’s the most charismatic presence on the screen, better than Leo.

TR won in supporting VFX at VES (just the bear, really), not the main category. It’s possible to win from that category, as Hugo did, but when Oscar goes that way it’s because the film is the only BP nominee. I just don’t see it this year, there are three BP nominees in the VFX category, plus Star Wars, which beat two BPs at VES in the main category. It’s still between SWTFA and MMFR imo.

I’m Team Revenant

AGREED

The Ocar-winning screenwriter sounds British by his picks. No idea who, though.

The Revenant is winning best picture and best director. I think it’s pretty much sealed at this point. 12 nominations and DGA win is too much to ignore. The only other option is The Big Short. I think it is the one movie that really benefits from the Preferential Ballot (I think our Awards Daily ballots proved this).

I am still pulling for a George Miller upset (an a write in vote for Carol) but that is extremely unlikely. Also, if Inside Out somehow won Best Original Screenplay that would be the greatest thing to ever happen.

I see. Text was corrected. Well, an acknowledgment for the correction would’ve been nice plus it wouldn’t make me seem like I’m crazy and avoided these confused replies 😉

Spielberg is Bradshaw’s NGNG. He knows it won’t happen.

I said ABM is rated equal, not lower. And Sasha said Crash is the lowest rated movie, not the one with more negative reviews. Two different things.

I know. For Oscars it doesnt really mean that much. Not even as a reflection of general perception. FG for example, a big BP winner and generally well talked about movie has only 72%.

Tom Hardy is clearly 2nd in his category and you still have him as 5th. That doesn’t sound right.

That unless you point the other 8 movies that rank lower than Crash, BM is not a good example. It’s not rated lower than Crash.

BM is rated 75% w/ 50 negatives; Crash 75% with 57 negatives.

The Revenant only has two negatives: No SAG Ensemble and no screenplay nomination. But other than that: Won the DGA, nominated for the most Oscars, and probably going to win Director and Actor.

Critics reviews don’t matter here. The Revenant has an 8/10 critical mean from Rotten Tomatoes.com. TBS has a 7.8/10 rating.

Entertainment Weekly does its annual feature where they interview a handful of anonymous Academy voters and ask what and who they voted for, and why. Granted, 6 is a ridiculously miniscule sampling, but here goes. If these votes are any reflection of the winners, it appears DiCaprio and Stallone have nothing to worry about.

http://www.ew.com/article/2016/02/12/oscars-2016-secret-ballot

You would have thought that. Revenant winning a freaking VES guild award makes me wonder. Even Sasha has Revenant winning the two sound awards (I counted seven total wins in her tally). You can feel Inarritu’s baffling hold over Academy voters carrying Hardy over the line. Unless team Big Short has been working the tech guild voters and hard, I don’t think I’m wrong.

Last year, who really thought a wading pool deep piece of stunt filming like Birdman would boatrace the Guilds in the final weeks?

Just what will Revenant break by winning Best Picture?

1) Winning w/o SAG Ensemble (Braveheart)
2) Winning w/o Oscar AND WGA screenwriting nomination (Hamlet)
3) AGI directing two consecutive Best Pictures wins (never in history)
4) Lowest RT and MC scores since Crash
5) Latest release of a BP winner (Million Dollar Baby)