Predictions Friday: Best Actor is Getting Crowded

The heat is on the Best Actress race, no doubt about it. Powerhouse performances all around, veterans, women of color — lots of heat, lots of competition and by far one of the best years in a while for women. But what of the men?

If you take away what pundits like me are saying and just go with the buzz around town, what you hear from talking to people at parties or online, these films seem to resonate with the most power as Best Picture frontrunners:

La La Land (Ryan Gosling)
Arrival
Jackie
20th Century Women
Moonlight
Hell or High Water (Chris Pine)

If you dig a little deeper and fold in what you know about studio, positioning, general Academy taste, you have:
Manchester by the Sea (Casey Affleck)
Loving (Joel Edgerton)
Lion (Dev Patel)
Sully (Tom Hanks)

If you then fold in movies generating high expectations that have not yet been seen but are probable Best Picture nominees:
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (screening this evening!) (Joe Alwyn)
Silence (Andrew Garfield)
Fences (Denzel Washington)

Then you look at potential wild cards, like:
Hacksaw Ridge (Andrew Garfield)
Rules Don’t Apply (Warren Beatty)
Miss Sloane
Denial
Hidden Figures
Gold (Matthew McConaughey)

The rules for Best Actor nominations are usually 1) a performance in a Best Picture frontrunner, nominee or winner, or 2) a veteran who is way, way overdue. The interesting thing about this year is that it looks like, at least right now, many of the hottest BP contenders are female driven, with a few notable exceptions. This is an unusual year not just because women’s roles are so strong but because that means that they are also helping to drive the Best Picture race.

The vets this year include Warren Beatty for Rules Don’t Apply (unless that’s in supporting), and Tom Hanks in Sully, who hasn’t had a nomination since Cast Away in 2001. That’s quite extraordinary, considering what a regularly great actor he is.

Warren Beatty has never won an acting Oscar and he’s certainly overdue. So much so that he could win without his movie even being nominated. Although he, like Denzel Washington, has the distinction/problem of having directed himself and that makes a win a bit more of a long shot, but not impossible.

At the moment, there isn’t one knockout frontrunner like, say, Daniel Day Lewis in Lincoln, which was unequivocal. The main frontrunner at the moment is Casey Affleck’s heartbreaking performance in Manchester by the Sea.

Herewith, current predictions.

FRONTRUNNERS

Best Picture
Frontrunners
La La Land
Arrival
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Moonlight
Fences
Loving
Manchester by the Sea
Sully
Silence
Lion

Contenders:
Jackie
20th Century Women
Hell or High Water
Live by Night

Best Actor
Denzel Washington, Fences
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Warren Beatty, The Rules Don’t Apply (unless supporting)
Dev Patel, Lion
Joel Edgerton, Loving

Contenders
Tom Hanks, Sully
Robert DeNiro, The Comedian
Chris Pine, Hell or High Water
Miles Teller, Bleed for This
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Andrew Garfield, Silence
Ben Affleck, Live by Night
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Matthew McConaughey, Gold

Best Actress
Emma Stone, La La Land
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Amy Adams, Arrival
Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
Viola Davis, Fences (unless supporting)

Contenders
Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Ruth Negga, Loving
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Emily Blunt, Girl on the Train
Rebecca Hall, Christine
Rooney Mara, Una
Kate Beckinsale, Love & Friendship

Supporting Actor
Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Ben Foster, Hell or High Water

Contenders
Liam Neeson, Silence
Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures
Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Supporting Actress
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Miss Sloane
Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women

Contenders
Molly Shannon, Other People
Sarah Gadon, Indignation
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Director
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Martin Scorsese, Silence
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

Contenders:
Jeff Nichols, Loving
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Clint Eastwood, Sully
David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water

Original Screenplay
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Jeff Nichols, Loving
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Mike Mills, 20th Century Women
Taylor Sheridan, Hell or High Water

Adapted Screenplay
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Eric Heisserer, Arrival
Jean-Christophe Castelli, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Jay Cocks, Silence
James Schamus, Indignation

Editing
La La Land
Arrival
Hell or High Water
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Silence

Cinematography
La La Land
Arrival
Jackie
Hail Caesar
Rules Don’t Apply

Production Design
La La Land
Jackie
Arrival
Rules Don’t Apply
Hail Caesar

Costume Design
Jackie
La La Land
Rules Don’t Apply
Loving

Documentary Feature
OJ: Made in America
13th
Gleason
Life Animated
Weiner

Animated feature
The Red Turtle
Moana
Sing
Finding Dory
Zootopia

Visual Effects
Arrival
Midnight Special
Hail Caesar
Captain America: Civil War
Rogue One

Makeup AND HAIR
La La Land
Jackie
Rules Don’t Apply
Hail Caesar
Indignation