The State of the Race: The Frontrunners and Their Challengers on the Eve of the AFI Fest

The last major event that will take place to affect the race, except for the late and great appearance of a Martin Scorsese film, is the AFI Festival. Now that almost every key film has been seen, there isn’t much left to show at AFI that might upset the course that’s been set in motion. What can happen is the buzz can shift in one direction or another once a large and influential group like that sees the film. At that point, all bets are off, the tweets start humming along, and the critics ready themselves to present their awards. It’s interesting to note that the critics generally seem to want to influence the race at the outset but not echo the chatter already happening. They tend to have a natural resistance to picking films they think the Academy will like, and instead prefer to push films they hope or wish the Academy will choose. For some reason, all these efforts still bend in the direction of the Oscars. Perhaps, because no other group (with the possible exception of the Golden Globes) has taken its place to define cinema history like the Academy has done. This is perhaps why the critics so often complain about them. You see, critics are a very small handful of opinionated people. The Oscars represent a large consensus vote of thousands of actual filmmakers. They can embrace whatever strikes their fancy with little concern for the luxury of being all that selective. Thousands have to agree on a film or a performance. Thousands.  For an Oscar winner to prevail it obviously needs broad appeal, and that’s a quality critics often scorn.

We now have a small but increasingly sufficient amount of information on which we can base our assumptions, mostly garnered from reactions at festivals and from our own first-hand exposure to the films that have risen to prominence. But we know that even the surest of sure things can run into unexpected snags in the final two months leading up to the nominations. Some crazy politically-correct witch hunt hysteria, or a scathing review from a veteran critic, or disappointing box office, or a star who for whatever reason fails to show up on the obligatory publicity circuit. That means that whatever we think the race is now fresh out of the gate, will most likely look different in one month’s time after running a few laps on a muddy track.

Turning points for big shifts soon to be seen in the race are as follows:

End of November, early December
National Board of Review (Nov 29) – They name ten films, name a best picture and name a director. They tend to have a strong impact on how the race ends up. They have recently added several secondary lists, which makes it easier for them to mention nearly every conceivable option.
The New York Film Critics (Dec 1) – They’ve pushed their own date forward to ensure they’re among the first to announce their best. In the past, they’ve often named films that haven’t been released or widely seen, thus pushing those unknowns into the race — for example, Zero Dark Thirty or American Hustle.
The BFCA Critics Choice (Dec 1) – They’ve, for the first time, jumped ahead and pushed their own announcements forward to compete with the other two traditional big announcements. Whether that will make a difference or not remains to be seen. Clearly in order to distinguish themselves they’ll need to do more than say “me too.”  They’ll need to be unique.

LA Film Critics (Dec 4)
Golden Globe nominations (Dec 12)
Screen Actors guild (Dec 14)

There are then the groups that tend to solidify and certify, rather than influence, the race. Among those are:
The AFI Top Ten (Dec 8)
DGA nominations (Jan 12)
PGA nominations (Jan 10th)

At the moment, there do seem to be clear frontrunners and challengers emerging in some of the categories. I thought it might be fun to go through them. (“I think it would be fun to run a newspaper.”)

Best Picture
Frontrunner: La La Land
Challengers: Manchester by the Sea and Fences
Potential spoiler: Silence, which no one has yet seen
Potential shocker: Moonlight

Other nominees in play:
Arrival
Loving
Jackie
Sully
Hell or High Water
20th Century Women

Best Actor
Frontrunner: Denzel Washington, Fences
Challenger: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Potential Spoiler: Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply
Surprise: Joel Edgerton, Loving

Other nominees in play
Tom Hanks, Sully
Ryan Gosling, La La Land

Best Actress
Frontrunner: Emma Stone, La La Land
Challengers: Annette Bening, 20th Century Women; Natalie Portman, Jackie
Potential Spoilers: Amy Adams, Arrival; Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
Surprise: Ruth Negga, Loving

Other nominees in play:
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Isabelle Huppert, Elle

Best Supporting Actress
Frontrunner: Viola Davis, Fences
Challenger: Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Potential Spoiler: Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Surprise: Molly Shannon, Other People

Other nominees in play:
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Miss Sloane

Best Supporting Actor
Frontrunner: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Challengers: Dev Patel, Lion; Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea; Mykelti Williamson,Fences
Potential Spoiler: Jovan Adepo, Fences
Surprise: Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This

Other nominees in play:
Jeff Bridges, Ben Foster, Hell or High Water
Liam Neeson, Silence
Matthew Broderick, Rules Don’t Apply

Director
Frontrunner: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Challenger: Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Potential Spoiler: Denzel Washington, Fences
Surprise: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

Other nominees in play:
Martin Scorsese, Silence
Jeff Nichols, Loving
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival

SAG Ensemble:
Frontrunner: Fences
Challengers: La La Land, Manchester by the Sea
Potential Spoiler: Moonlight
Surprise: 20th Century Women

DGA
Frontrunner: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Challenger: Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Potential Spoiler: Denzel Washington, Fences
Surprise: Martin Scorsese, Silence

PGA
Frontrunner: La La Land
Challengers: Manchester by the Sea/Fences
Potential Spoiler: Moonlight
Surprise: Silence

That’s all I got today, folks.