SAG Preview and Predictions

The SAG ensemble award is going to be an interesting thing to watch, especially the day before the Globe nominations. The thing that’s easy to forget about both is that typically they depict the earlier part of the Oscar race, not what it becomes the time Oscar voters vote – about a month from now. A lot can happen in a month. Movies can rise and fall. Contenders can be celebrated or forgotten. Scandals can and do erupt. Money is made or lost. Many award announcements in between as we watch, guild announcement by guild announcement, a consensus building – and even then the Oscar Best Picture nominations can be a surprise.

What SAG ensemble means in terms of Best Picture is hit and miss. The lowest number to match since Oscar expanded was 3 out of 5, that was two years ago when The Butler and August: Osage County failed to make the lineup. Last year, all five got in. Most years, only one doesn’t make the jump to the Oscar race.

There are a lot of films that could make it in the ensemble race if you go by big casts with lots of respectable actors in them and studio marketeers pushing those movies. The 2000 nominating committee, picked at random, decides before the 100,000 takes a stab at the winners. There is often discussion about screeners and location. Did the committee all get screeners? Did they all see the movies? I’m not the one with the inside track on that but I do know that late breakers do not usually get into SAG even if they get into Oscar or HFPA.

For instance, Wolf of Wall Street came in too late, so did Django Unchained. Almost all of the ensemble nominees, going back to 2009, were early released or early seen. Les Miserables and American Hustle are the two latest entries I’ve seen since 2009. That doesn’t mean The Hateful Eight, with its central cast of beloved actors, won’t make it in, and it doesn’t mean Joy, with its central cast of beloved actors, won’t make it in. It’s just harder to find consensus with the late breakers unless the film is unquestionably well liked, which both of those films might be. I would be surprised if The Revenant got in.

Here are the contenders:
1. Spotlight – a done deal and probably the winner.
2. The Martian – it seems like a sure bet – well liked and a massive ensemble of beloved actors.
3. Carol – I’m guessing this film, with its acting across the board is going to be a SAG movie.

Then things get a little more sketchy:
4. Steve Jobs – seems like a sure bet, even without the box office supporting it. It rides on the performances of the actors reading Sorkin. I can’t imagine it missing.
5. Youth – didn’t hit with critics but come on, Michael Caine, Harvey Keitel, Jane Fonda, Paul Dano, etc? They have to really hate it for it not to get in (though I would bet most are not predicting it based on critics, and they could be right)
6. The Big Short – probably a good bet, with so many beloved and popular actors how can it miss?
7. Room – In addition to its two leads, there is Joan Allen and William H. Macy – it’s also incredibly emotional.
8. Black Mass – another one that didn’t hit with critics but is a SAG ensemble catnip. Johnny Depp, Benedict Cumberbatch, Joel Edgerton. It’s possible. You never know.
9. Creed – might this be one of the bigger surprises? SAG has a history of being the most diverse of the guilds.
10. Suffragette – never underestimate the power of Meryl Streep.
11. The Danish Girl – if it is going to rally anything in the race it could hit here, with Eddie Redmayne – both films from Focus features that made Best Pic hit here first in the past two years.
12. Straight Outta Compton – absolutely a possibility.

Then you have the late breakers, which also seem like they could be really strong with SAG but might have been seen too late:
1. The Hateful Eight – such a talented cast of actors all getting mean and bloodied up in Tarantino’s western.
2. Joy – if there is one thing actors like it’s David O. Russell’s treatment of them. I don’t see this missing but one never knows.
3. The Revenant – it’s more about Leo than it is an ensemble-type film

Our predictions for ensemble

Marshall Flores: Spotlight, The Martian, Joy, Steve Jobs, Brooklyn
Sasha Stone: Spotlight, The Martian, Joy, Steve Jobs, Youth

Here are the rest of our predictions.

Best Actor
Flores: Brie Larson, Cate Blanchett, Jennifer Lawrence, Saoirse Ronan, Charlize Theron
Stone: Brie Larson, Cate Blanchett, Jennifer Lawrence, Saoirse Ronan, Carey Mulligan

Best Actor
Flores: Leonardo DiCaprio, Michael Fassbender, Johnny Depp, Matt Damon, Bryan Cranston
Stone: Leonardo DiCaprio, Michael Fassbender, Johnny Depp, Matt Damon, Ian McKellen
Alt: Will Smith, Concussion, Michael B. Jordan, Creed, Eddie Redmayne, Danish Girl

Supporting Actor
Flores: Mark Rylance, Sylvester Stallone, Paul Dano, Michael Keaton, Mark Ruffalo
Stone: Mark Rylance, Sylvester Stallone, Paul Dano, Michael Keaton, Benicio Del Toro (Sicario)
Supporting Actress
Flores: Rooney Mara, Alicia Vikander (Danish Girl), Kate Winslet, Helen Mirren, Elizabeth Banks
Stone: Rooney Mara, Alicia Vikander, Kate Winslet, Elizabeth Banks, Jane Fonda

This is a really mixed up year that is hard to predict – there are a few questions that still hover – like, did Hateful Eight get enough momentum to earn any nominations – be they ensemble or supporting. Did the Kristen Stewart buzz have time to build to make it in for nominations? What of the films that the critics didn’t like getting in? Tomorrow we will know the answer to these questions, bright and early.