The State of the Race: Darkness and Play

Looming Large

2008 is shaping up to be another year of an Oscar season that echoes the 1970s. At this stage of the game, when so many of the big guns have held their movies back in an unusual, somewhat daring move, two films still seem to define both the era in which we are living and the Oscar year we are about to live through.  The Dark Knight and Wall-E.

Both films are apocalyptic in their view of the state of the things, both films feature an untraditional hero and both films challenge authority, especially when it has become too focused on the wrong goal. While the mood could dramatically shift after November 4, the upcoming Oscar films, the Best Picture candidates, seem to take over where last year left off: the individual, not the institution is what counts. Gone are the heroic leaders and reliable good government confronting the evil forces of other countries. The evil, it seems, is right here in America where the institutions on which we have built our belief systems have crumbled before our eyes in the last ten or twenty years.

Frost/Nixon, Revolutionary Road, Defiance and Doubt, too, each fit perfectly with this idea that nothing is what it seems — not the American dream, not the institute of organized religion, not the presidency. Of these, Defiance is the most traditional in terms of good and evil, right and wrong: there is no gray area with the Holocaust.¬†¬† But it‚Äôs the title, Defiance, that brings to mind a personal revolution to take justice into one‚Äôs hands and fight until the death.

The end of the year will still bring surprises though there are some films already that have so much heat on them their flame is likely to burn brightly through the next few months. One of them is most especially Rachel Getting Married. It doesn’t fit in with the handful of films that seem to resonate with social injustice and distrust of authority but it is something entirely different: it is an organic surprise. It came from nowhere with little fanfare, directed by Jonathan Demme who has long since been counted out. Always beware the underestimated director, actor or writer.

It has Jenny Lumet attached, the daughter of beloved Sidney, which means she’s almost guaranteed an Oscar nomination and could even win in that category. Maybe it sounds crazy to even contemplate such a thing at this stage but there is a bit of pedigree that can’t be denied. It helps that it’s a great script. In addition, it has a star turn by Anne Hathaway who uglies up a bit and plays an annoying character to perfection. She will likely be swept along with the film’s palpable heat.

Speaking of underestimated, though Clint Eastwood was cock-blocked by Martin Scorsese two years back, he is entering this year‚Äôs race from behind, very much an underestimated threat. Why? Because no one has seen Gran Torino. It remains a big, fat question mark, and those are easy to project positive things on. We all imagine it will be good — hope it will be — but there is always the chance that it won‚Äôt live up to expectations, even if those expectations were imposed upon it in an unfair fashion to begin with; it isn‚Äôt Clint‚Äôs fault or the movie‚Äôs fault that there is so much chatter going on before Oscar movies. I am not one to lament this as some writers are wont to do (even if they contribute to it just as much). It is what it is. The chatter can‚Äôt be denied. Right now, all eyes are on Eastwood even though his film is but one of the veiled surprises the season has yet to deliver on.

The practice of making predictions early before films have been seen should only be taken for what it really is: a guessing game, a really fun guessing game. It’s sort of like trying to use facts to prove religion exists. You will never find answers of something that has no basis in reality. Reality, really, is beside the point. Still, this makes it somewhat tricky for publicists to position their film to be seen outside the circle of chatter where there are simply too many people eager to pounce on a film out of the gate.

At any rate, Tom O’Neil has put together a group of folks to put in their predictions, it looks like weekly. Jeff Wells has his Oscar balloon which has what he considers the best contenders and David Poland does his Gurus of Gold. Our delightful and delicious Ryan also offers up the Sultans of Bling, which can probably best be defined as wishful thinking; they make no excuses. The heart wants what it wants and I’ve always admired this devil-may-care approach to predicting. After all, who cares? If it’s all fun and games anyway why not mix it up? Hopefully Ryan will be pulling out the Sultans again in the coming weeks.

Let‚Äôs look at Best Pic, how people are predicting it. Hollywood-Elsewhere‘s Oscar Balloon:

Australia, Che, 
Milk, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, 
Revolutionary Road, 
Frost/Nixon, 
Doubt, 
The Reader, 
The Visitor, 
The Dark Knight, The Wrestler, 
Gran Torino, 
Nothing But the Truth, 
WALL-E, 
Brothers, 
Slumdog Millionaire

Tom O’Neil’s crew (going by those with at least two votes)

Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire‚Ä®
Frost/Nixon

The Dark Knight

Benjamin Button‚Ä®
Australia

As you can see, these are all over the map.  The Gurus of Gold, finally, has:

Frost/Nixon‚Ä®
Revolutionary Road

Benjamin Button

Slumdog Millionaire‚Ä®
Milk

The Dark Knight is next. Doubt seems way down on the list. If I were today to name the films I thought had the best shot, I would not do it based on what these lists reveal. After all, it is just fun and games, right? I would go with what I consider to be the key themes in the race: darkness, personal justice and finally, what the big picture is telling. The Dark Knight looms so large right now, still, that I can’t see it snubbed. One never knows, of course, but it is everything the Oscars are supposed to be about. Sure, it doesn’t have a teary redemption scene, and it’s based on a comic book, AND it’s a sequel. But still. $500 plus million doesn’t lie.

Looming Large

2008 is shaping up to be another year of an Oscar season that echoes the 1970s. At this stage of the game, when so many of the big guns have held their movies back in an unusual, somewhat daring move, two films still seem to define both the era in which we are living and the Oscar year we are about to live through. The Dark Knight and Wall-E.

Both films are apocalyptic in their view of the state of the things, both films feature an untraditional hero and both films challenge authority, especially when it has become too focused on the wrong goal. While the mood could dramatically shift after November 4, the upcoming Oscar films, the Best Picture candidates, seem to take over where last year left off: the individual, not the institution is what counts. Gone are the heroic leaders and reliable good government confronting the evil forces of other countries. The evil, it seems, is right here in America where the institutions on which we have built our belief systems have crumbled before our eyes in the last ten or twenty years.

Frost/Nixon, Revolutionary Road, Defiance and Doubt, too, each fit perfectly with this idea that nothing is what it seems — not the American dream, not the institute of organized religion, not the presidency. Of these, Defiance is the most traditional in terms of good and evil, right and wrong: there is no gray area with the Holocaust.¬†¬† But it’s the title, Defiance, that brings to mind a personal revolution to take justice into one’s hands and fight until the death.

The end of the year will still bring surprises though there are some films already that have so much heat on them their flame is likely to burn brightly through the next few months. One of them is most especially Rachel Getting Married. It doesn’t fit in with the handful of films that seem to resonate with social injustice and distrust of authority but it is something entirely different: it is an organic surprise. It came from nowhere with little fanfare, directed by Jonathan Demme who has long since been counted out. Always beware the underestimated director, actor or writer.

It has Jenny Lumet attached, the daughter of beloved Sidney, which means she’s almost guaranteed an Oscar nomination and could even win in that category. Maybe it sounds crazy to even contemplate such a thing at this stage but there is a bit of pedigree that can’t be denied. It helps that it’s a great script. In addition, it has a star turn by Anne Hathaway who uglies up a bit and plays an annoying character to perfection. She will likely be swept along with the film’s palpable heat.

Speaking of underestimated, though Clint Eastwood was cock-blocked by Martin Scorsese two years back, he is entering this year’s race from behind, very much an underestimated threat. Why? Because no one has seen Gran Torino. It remains a big, fat question mark, and those are easy to project positive things on. We all imagine it will be good — hope it will be — but there is always the chance that it won’t live up to expectations, even if those expectations were imposed upon it in an unfair fashion to begin with; it isn’t Clint’s fault or the movie’s fault that there is so much chatter going on before Oscar movies. I am not one to lament this as some writers are wont to do (even if they contribute to it just as much). It is what it is. The chatter can’t be denied. Right now, all eyes are on Eastwood even though his film is but one of the veiled surprises the season has yet to deliver on.

The practice of making predictions early before films have been seen should only be taken for what it really is: a guessing game, a really fun guessing game. It’s sort of like trying to use facts to prove religion exists. You will never find answers of something that has no basis in reality. Reality, really, is beside the point. Still, this makes it somewhat tricky for publicists to position their film to be seen outside the circle of chatter where there are simply too many people eager to pounce on a film out of the gate.

At any rate, Tom O’Neil has put together a group of folks to put in their predictions, it looks like weekly. Jeff Wells has his Oscar balloon which has what he considers the best contenders and David Poland does his Gurus of Gold. Our delightful and delicious Ryan also offers up the Sultans of Bling, which can probably best be defined as wishful thinking; they make no excuses. The heart wants what it wants and I’ve always admired this devil-may-care approach to predicting. After all, who cares? If it’s all fun and games anyway why not mix it up? Hopefully Ryan will be pulling out the Sultans again in the coming weeks.

Let’s look at Best Pic, how people are predicting it. Hollywood-Elsewhere‘s Oscar Balloon:

Australia, Che, “Milk, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, “Revolutionary Road, “Frost/Nixon, “Doubt, “The Reader, “The Visitor, “The Dark Knight,The Wrestler, “Gran Torino, “Nothing But the Truth, “WALL-E, “Brothers, “Slumdog Millionaire

Tom O’Neil’s crew (going by those with at least two votes)

Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire”
Frost/Nixon
“The Dark Knight”
Benjamin Button”
Australia

As you can see, these are all over the map.  The Gurus of Gold, finally, has:

Frost/Nixon”
Revolutionary Road
“Benjamin Button
Slumdog Millionaire”
Milk

The Dark Knight is next. Doubt seems way down on the list. If I were today to name the films I thought had the best shot, I would not do it based on what these lists reveal. After all, it is just fun and games, right? I would go with what I consider to be the key themes in the race: darkness, personal justice and finally, what the big picture is telling. The Dark Knight looms so large right now, still, that I can’t see it snubbed. One never knows, of course, but it is everything the Oscars are supposed to be about. Sure, it doesn’t have a teary redemption scene, and it’s based on a comic book, AND it’s a sequel. But still. $500 plus million doesn’t lie.

Organic hits thus far: The Dark Knight, Slumdog Millionaire, and Rachel Getting Married”. On the horizon, with the most potential: Milk, Revolutionary Road, Benjamin Button, Australia, Frost/Nixon, Gran Torino, and of course, Doubt. I could be wrong but I think The Reader has had too much bad publicity but if it’s good enough it might overcome.

Organic hits thus far: The Dark Knight, Slumdog Millionaire, and Rachel Getting Married. On the horizon, with the most potential: Milk, Revolutionary Road, Benjamin Button, Australia, Frost/Nixon, Gran Torino, and of course, Doubt. I could be wrong but I think The Reader has had too much bad publicity but if it’s good enough it might overcome.